Which outcome is more likely in IA?

[Canis]

Which outcome is more likely in Iowa?
RCP Averages currently
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_biden-6787.html
Biden +1.2
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_greenfield-7072.html
Greenfield +4.8
despite what the polling is saying imo I think Biden/Ernst winning is more likely because I just cant see a Trump/Greenfield voter

[Xing]

I'm not 100% sure, but I think Trump/Greenfield is a bit more likely. Just because that kind of voting doesn't make much sense to most of us (Biden/Ernst isn't particularly logical either, but I digress) doesn't mean that there won't be a small number of voters who vote that way, and that could make the difference if Trump wins it by a very small margin. My current guess is Trump +3.5% and Ernst +2%, so I think that if Trump's margin is below 2% in IA, Greenfield has a chance.

[SnowLabrador]

Given current polling, Trump/Greenfield is more likely.

[Ferguson97]

Trump/Greenfield, no question.

If Biden wins the state, so does Greenfield. But a Greenfield win does not necessarily mean a Biden win.

[TML]

Right now, all of the major forecast models give Greenfield a better chance of winning statewide than Biden, so Trump/Greenfield is the answer based on currently available data.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Greenfield - Trump. Even though the solo may seem odd to political junkies like us, IA is the kind of place where local retail politics can matter, and maybe there’s specific communities that are just attracted to Greenfield for some reason but still like Trump. At the end of the day though, I think the divergence in the margins will be minimal

[Common Sense Atlantan]

Biden/Ernest. I think the nevertrumpers will come out here.

[wbrocks67]

Trump/Greenfield certainly seems more likely than Biden/Ernst. I feel like there also quite a bit more Trump-G voters than Biden-E.

[Alben Barkley]

I mean you kind of answered your own question with those polling averages. Presidential race is closer right now than the Senate race. Presidential race is a pure toss-up that could easily go either way. But it’s clear now that the Senate race is at least tilting towards Greenfield.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Ernst winning, Trump has 0 chance he is down by 10, where Ernst is down by 4, AZ, CO, ME, NC and GA runoffs is the path to the majority. IA is a wave insurance seat, but D's can clinch Prez at 272 if Biden wins IA without VA and D's can clinch Senate without NC