CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[Jon Tester]

Dan Baer is in.

https://coloradosun.com/2019/04/15/dan-baer-us-senate-cory-gardner/

[SnowLabrador]

So Dan Baer, a former diplomat, has declared, as well as John Walsh. This is going to be a very interesting primary.

[S019]

So Dan Baer, a former diplomat, has declared, as well as John Walsh. This is going to be a very interesting primary.

Andrew Romanoff and Mike Johnston are still the favorites, I doubt Neguse gets in, he could accumulate seniority and then run later (he's very young)

[S019]

To be honest, Gardner has a tough, but doable path

At this point, in the 2016 cycle, Ron Johnson was headed for a Blanching at the hands of Russ Feingold

At this point, in the 2018 cycle, McCaskill and Donnelly were going to be Blanched, while Heitkamp won by double digits

It's still early, and anything can happen

[Yellowhammer]

To be honest, Gardner has a tough, but doable path

At this point, in the 2016 cycle, Ron Johnson was headed for a Blanching at the hands of Russ Feingold

At this point, in the 2018 cycle, McCaskill and Donnelly were going to be Blanched, while Heitkamp won by double digits

It's still early, and anything can happen

Um, there was never any reliable evidence that Heitkamp would win at all, much less by double-digits.

[S019]

To be honest, Gardner has a tough, but doable path

At this point, in the 2016 cycle, Ron Johnson was headed for a Blanching at the hands of Russ Feingold

At this point, in the 2018 cycle, McCaskill and Donnelly were going to be Blanched, while Heitkamp won by double digits

It's still early, and anything can happen

Um, there was never any reliable evidence that Heitkamp would win at all, much less by double-digits.

Guys, seriously. Heitkamp is a master of retail politics and has been raising money for this seat for years. It won't be a cakewalk because it's still North Dakota, but she should still be okay.

If I recall correctly, they absolutely didn't want him to run initially. He's a gaffe prone candidate.

Can't wait for Cramer's career-ending gaffe!

30-40%. Cramer's not the best candidate, and Republicans are already blowing this race big time. They're honestly having much more trouble in this race than they should.

No serious person believes Hawley is DOA, but I do think Heitkamp is more likely to be reelected than Gardner.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261905.0

This whole thread is a gem, filled with people declaring ND as Likely/Safe D

[Pollster]

Interesting that all of the major candidates announced so far are white men. Does sort of make Duran's choice all the more of a headscratcher. Are there any female candidates known to be considering besides Donovan?

[DaWN]

To be honest, Gardner has a tough, but doable path

At this point, in the 2016 cycle, Ron Johnson was headed for a Blanching at the hands of Russ Feingold

At this point, in the 2018 cycle, McCaskill and Donnelly were going to be Blanched, while Heitkamp won by double digits

It's still early, and anything can happen

You're going to be very disappointed come November 2020.

[Xing]

To be honest, Gardner has a tough, but doable path

At this point, in the 2016 cycle, Ron Johnson was headed for a Blanching at the hands of Russ Feingold

At this point, in the 2018 cycle, McCaskill and Donnelly were going to be Blanched, while Heitkamp won by double digits

It's still early, and anything can happen

Um, there was never any reliable evidence that Heitkamp would win at all, much less by double-digits.

Guys, seriously. Heitkamp is a master of retail politics and has been raising money for this seat for years. It won't be a cakewalk because it's still North Dakota, but she should still be okay.

If I recall correctly, they absolutely didn't want him to run initially. He's a gaffe prone candidate.

Can't wait for Cramer's career-ending gaffe!

30-40%. Cramer's not the best candidate, and Republicans are already blowing this race big time. They're honestly having much more trouble in this race than they should.

No serious person believes Hawley is DOA, but I do think Heitkamp is more likely to be reelected than Gardner.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261905.0

This whole thread is a gem, filled with people declaring ND as Likely/Safe D

Nice cherrypicking. I was pretty consistently more bearish on Heitkamp's chances than most here, with that post being one of the few exceptions, when it looked like 2018 would be even better for Democrats than it was.

Anyway, if Trump actually wins Colorado or comes within 1-2%, then sure, Gardner could win, but what are the odds of that? 5%?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

So Dan Baer, a former diplomat, has declared, as well as John Walsh. This is going to be a very interesting primary.

Andrew Romanoff and Mike Johnston are still the favorites, I doubt Neguse gets in, he could accumulate seniority and then run later (he's very young)

No, if Neguse wants the seat, he needs to run now.

It's either run now against a vulnerable R in a pickup that should be (compared to other races) low effort or wait until six years from now where he would have to knock off a D incumbent in a primary challenge.

There's no incentive for him to wait.

[LoneStarDem]

If Neguse runs, you can expect the Trump White, RSCC, etc., to up the ante in racially-charged coded attacks against him.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

If Neguse runs, you can expect the Trump White, RSCC, etc., to up the ante in racially-charged coded attacks against him.

You mean racist attacks?

[Politician]

Saw on DKE that Jena Griswold is considering. She’d probably easily win the primary as the only woman in the race if she ran and she’d be the youngest senator if victorious.

I'd rather not given she just got elected SoS last year and we have plenty of good candidates in Colorado

[DaWN]

Saw on DKE that Jena Griswold is considering. She’d probably easily win the primary as the only woman in the race if she ran and she’d be the youngest senator if victorious.

I'd rather not given she just got elected SoS last year and we have plenty of good candidates in Colorado

On the other hand, she'd have to wait until Bennet retires or Polis is termed out to take a stab at a higher statewide office. She might be better off striking when the iron is hot.

[S019]

Saw on DKE that Jena Griswold is considering. She’d probably easily win the primary as the only woman in the race if she ran and she’d be the youngest senator if victorious.

I'd rather not given she just got elected SoS last year and we have plenty of good candidates in Colorado

On the other hand, she'd have to wait until Bennet retires or Polis is termed out to take a stab at a higher statewide office. She might be better off striking when the iron is hot.

And she has a much higher profile than anyone currently in the field. And voters have shown they don’t generally care about politicians seeking a new office soon after winning their current one. Ask Sens. Rosen, Hawley, Cotton, Daines

It is bad optics for Jena Griswold and she has not been in her current job long enough. She would be another B-list candidate in this race. Cory Gardner is so lucky, that he will not face any A-lister. (which means he probably will not be triaged) It might not be enough (let's not pretend Jacky Rosen was an A-list candidate). This will be close, but the Democrat should win. Gun to my head, Gardner loses by 2-3

[KaiserDave]

Saw on DKE that Jena Griswold is considering. She’d probably easily win the primary as the only woman in the race if she ran and she’d be the youngest senator if victorious.

I'd rather not given she just got elected SoS last year and we have plenty of good candidates in Colorado

On the other hand, she'd have to wait until Bennet retires or Polis is termed out to take a stab at a higher statewide office. She might be better off striking when the iron is hot.

And she has a much higher profile than anyone currently in the field. And voters have shown they don’t generally care about politicians seeking a new office soon after winning their current one. Ask Sens. Rosen, Hawley, Cotton, Daines

It is bad optics for Jena Griswold and she has not been in her current job long enough. She would be another B-list candidate in this race. Cory Gardner is so lucky, that he will not face any A-lister. (which means he probably will not be triaged) It might not be enough (let's not pretend Jacky Rosen was an A-list candidate). This will be close, but the Democrat should win. Gun to my head, Gardner loses by 2-3

Meh, Hawley didn't seem to be hurt much by it. She's probably not an A-lister, but she's certainly a step up from the rest of the bench. She clearly got a good number of Trump voters in her 2018 SOS race against a scandal-free incumbent:


And Dems don't need an A-lister to win this race anyway.

She won Las Animas? Impressive


In any case, any A list or B list Dem will win easily 5-10. C List wins 2-5

[coloradocowboi]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

FTR Johnston is not widely viewed as a progressive in the state.

[SnowLabrador]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

FTR Johnston is not widely viewed as a progressive in the state.

Why isn't he seen as a progressive?

[pppolitics]

Plan B:

Ruben Gallego moves to Colorado to run for Senate

[Jon Tester]

https://www.coloradoindependent.com/2019/04/18/betsy-devoss-family-boosts-gardners-2020-campaign/

Betsy and Dick sure seem to like our boy Cory.

[Xeuma]

Plan B:

Ruben Gallego moves to Colorado to run for Senate

I would honestly support this. Would anyone in Colorado particularly care?

[coloradocowboi]

Just a quick update on the CO field situation:

-No other Major Democrats have indicated that they may run in the CO-Senate race.

-Neguse is now the only House Democrat to not file for reelection in the first quarter, indicating a possible interest in running for the senate.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/interactive-see-which-house-incumbents-have-or-havent-already-filed-for-re-election-in-2020/

-Mike Johnston, the Progressive in the race currently, has raised the most amount of money in the race so far, at a whopping $1.8 million in quarter 1.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/democrat-mike-johnston-raises-record-m-in-st-quarter-for/article_04c0df06-550b-11e9-be7c-933649f916d6.html

FTR Johnston is not widely viewed as a progressive in the state.

Why isn't he seen as a progressive?

http://apluscolorado.org/blog/time-reflect-colorados-teacher-evaluation-system/

This is the big albatross, but in general he seems like an opportunist progressive at best

[S019]

Here are some good pieces on Gardner's campaign strategy

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/30/cory-gardner-colorado-senate-reelect-1292266

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/29/cory-gardner-republicans-democrats-socialism/

[DaWN]

Here are some good pieces on Gardner's campaign strategy

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/30/cory-gardner-colorado-senate-reelect-1292266

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/29/cory-gardner-republicans-democrats-socialism/

If Gardner's strategy is going to consist of yelling 'SOCIALISM' then he's going to do even worse than I thought he would

[S019]

Here are some good pieces on Gardner's campaign strategy

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/30/cory-gardner-colorado-senate-reelect-1292266

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/29/cory-gardner-republicans-democrats-socialism/

If Gardner's strategy is going to consist of yelling 'SOCIALISM' then he's going to do even worse than I thought he would

Yes, it's a poor strategy, and if he one of the moderates changes their mind, this attack would be pointless