CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6
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Author Topic: CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6  (Read 120610 times)
Sestak
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« Reply #425 on: August 07, 2018, 10:44:51 PM »
F**K, Tlaib is winning?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #426 on: August 07, 2018, 10:45:28 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 07, 2018, 10:41:20 PM
I mean, primary results aren't the be-all end-all, but yeah, these results look terrible for Republicans.

Democrats typically do a tick better in the general than they do in the jungle primary, so...

Republicans' main hope right now is that there's still lots of votes left to count.

Reminder that all the pundits think WA-03 is "safe R" and that AZ-09, CA-24, CT-05, NV-04, and NH-02 are only "likely D." What utter morons these "experts" are.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #427 on: August 07, 2018, 10:45:38 PM »
If Tlaib wins, then this night will be a victory for progressives.
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Sestak
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« Reply #428 on: August 07, 2018, 10:46:23 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on August 07, 2018, 10:45:38 PM
If Tlaib wins, then this night will be a victory for progressives Linda Sarsour.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #429 on: August 07, 2018, 10:46:58 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2018, 10:53:35 PM by Paulite Hick »
Which is the stronger dem GE candidate, Schrier or Rittereiser?
Primary turnout is not looking good for Rossi.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #430 on: August 07, 2018, 10:47:29 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:46:23 PM
Quote from: Zaybay on August 07, 2018, 10:45:38 PM
If Tlaib wins, then this night will be a victory for Linda Sarsour.
hey, dont change my words. At least cross the original ones.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #431 on: August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM »
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #432 on: August 07, 2018, 10:49:48 PM »
Very happy about Tlaib pulling ahead.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #433 on: August 07, 2018, 10:50:13 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...
This was a realistic pickup months ago...
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Sestak
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« Reply #434 on: August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS
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Xing
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« Reply #435 on: August 07, 2018, 10:50:47 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 07, 2018, 10:45:28 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 07, 2018, 10:41:20 PM
I mean, primary results aren't the be-all end-all, but yeah, these results look terrible for Republicans.

Democrats typically do a tick better in the general than they do in the jungle primary, so...

Republicans' main hope right now is that there's still lots of votes left to count.

Reminder that all the pundits think WA-03 is "safe R" and that AZ-09, CA-24, CT-05, NV-04, and NH-02 are only "likely D." What utter morons these "experts" are.

I mean, I still think Herrera-Beutler is favored, but yeah, Safe R is definitely being too generous. And I may have been underestimating Lisa Brown.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #436 on: August 07, 2018, 10:50:55 PM »
amen
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #437 on: August 07, 2018, 10:51:21 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS
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ajc0918
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« Reply #438 on: August 07, 2018, 10:52:23 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

A jungle primary isn’t something the incumbents can waltz through, they need their voters to turn out. This is not good for WA GOP.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #439 on: August 07, 2018, 10:53:01 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 10:52:23 PM
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

A jungle primary isn’t something the incumbents can waltz through, they need their voters to turn out. This is not good for WA GOP.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #440 on: August 07, 2018, 10:53:45 PM »
Quote from: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on August 07, 2018, 10:53:01 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 10:52:23 PM
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

A jungle primary isn’t something the incumbents can waltz through, they need their voters to turn out. This is not good for WA GOP.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #441 on: August 07, 2018, 10:53:51 PM »
GOP primary ballots in MO only make up 53.5% of the two-way count as of now; with 123 precincts remaining, 111 are in St Louis County, Boone County (Columbia) and Jackson County (Kansas City): 3 of the 4 counties Clinton won.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #442 on: August 07, 2018, 10:54:08 PM »
Quote from: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on August 07, 2018, 10:50:13 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...
This was a realistic pickup months ago...

Not according to the pundits. They think it is "likely R."

And they think WA-03, where Dems are currently ahead in the combined D/R vote share, is "safe R." lol
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #443 on: August 07, 2018, 10:55:38 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on August 07, 2018, 10:53:45 PM
Quote from: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on August 07, 2018, 10:53:01 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 10:52:23 PM
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

A jungle primary isn’t something the incumbents can waltz through, they need their voters to turn out. This is not good for WA GOP.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #444 on: August 07, 2018, 10:55:51 PM »
There is a high correlation between jungle primary performance in states like WA with the eventual GE result. Most of the time the Dems actually do slightly better in the GE compared to the primary, but the results rarely differ drastically. Anybody comparing this to regular primary turnout has no idea what they're talking about.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #445 on: August 07, 2018, 10:56:14 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

The CA/WA top-two, high-turnout primaries are actually useful as a sort of large scale "poll" when you add up the Dem and Repub votes.  Certainly things can change by election day, but it's information worth paying attention to.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #446 on: August 07, 2018, 10:58:54 PM »
Quote from: john cage bubblegum on August 07, 2018, 10:56:14 PM
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

The CA/WA top-two, high-turnout primaries are actually useful as a sort of large scale "poll" when you add up the Dem and Repub votes.  Certainly things can change by election day, but it's information worth paying attention to.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #447 on: August 07, 2018, 10:59:15 PM »
Quote from: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on August 07, 2018, 10:58:54 PM
Quote from: john cage bubblegum on August 07, 2018, 10:56:14 PM
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

The CA/WA top-two, high-turnout primaries are actually useful as a sort of large scale "poll" when you add up the Dem and Repub votes.  Certainly things can change by election day, but it's information worth paying attention to.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #448 on: August 07, 2018, 11:03:04 PM »
Quote from: Paulite Hick on August 07, 2018, 10:46:58 PM
Which is the stronger dem GE candidate, Schrier or Rittereiser?
Primary turnout is not looking good for Rossi.

I prefer Rittereiser myself
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DrScholl
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« Reply #449 on: August 07, 2018, 11:03:30 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on August 07, 2018, 10:50:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 10:48:15 PM
WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

In 1994 incumbent Jolene Unsoeld got just under 40% of the primary vote. In November she ended up losing by nearly 8%.
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