Mid-2011 Population Estimates to be released on Wednesday

[krazen1211]

Would be very interesting to add a column to that sheet detailing the number of Congressional seats. Someone I know has an excel template that calculates it quickly.

[krazen1211]

Would be very interesting to add a column to that sheet detailing the number of Congressional seats. Someone I know has an excel template that calculates it quickly.

I posted that already.

I used the July 2011 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 15 month period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

CA +1
CO + 1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CO-8, AL-7, VA-12, CA-54, and FL-28 (#435).
The next five in line are WV-3, OR-6, NY-27, AZ-10, LA-7.

Ah, thanks. Incidentally whomever wins the 2011 Texas legal battle will struggle in 2021 presuming a Republican trifecta again. The GOP might finally have to yield the Austin seat and will likely certainly yield the 2nd Metroplex seat. Or, if those seats are yielded now they'll be plopping down 3 new GOP seats in the suburbs of the 3 big metro areas.

The rest seem fairly Dem favored. IL might have to cut a Chicago seat, but PA and OH will likely have to cut Republicans unless Altmire holds that PA-12 for the decade.

[krazen1211]

I would base it on what a court or commission would do in each state, since we don't know who will be in control.  Almost all of the gains would probably be Democratic seats, but so are almost all of the losses.  It does look like a significantly better picture for Democrats in the electoral college than the past several decades if CO and VA hold for them.  Also, remember that mobility is restricted during bad economic times, so if there is a boom later in the decade, I would expect that FL-29, AZ-10, NV-07, TX-40, etc. will be happening in 2020.

Well, based on that I come up with:

CA +1 D
CO + 1 D
FL +1 R
IL -1 D
MI -1 D
MN -1 R
NY -1 D
NC +1 D
OH -1 R
PA -1 R
RI -1 D
TX +2D +1R (based on the legislative map)
VA +1 D
WV -1 R