Very interesting new poll from Datafolha. The candidates of the PSDB and the PT have been the top two candidates in all of the last six Presidential elections in Bazil, going back to 1994. At the moment however they are in a death spiral in the polls as they are hit by corruption scandals. This latest poll presents scenarios for three possible OSDB candidates and in all three their candidate is polling in fourth place. As Jair Bolsonaro emerges as the leading candidate of the right in the polls this is the first poll to ask how he would do in the second round.
Poll taken 26-27 April 2,781 interviewees in 172 municipalities. Two percent margin of error with 95% confidence. Changes are from December Datafolha poll.
First Round
Scenario 1
Lula (PT): 30% (+5)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 15% (+6)
Marina Silva (Rede): 14% (-1)
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 8% (-3)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 5% (-)
Scenario 2
Lula (PT): 30% (+4)
Marina Silva (Rede): 16% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 14% (+6)
Geraldo Alkmin (PSDB): 6% (-2)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6% (-)
Scenario 3 (new scenario)
Lula (PT): 31%
Marina Silva (Rede): 16%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 13%
João Doria (PSDB): 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6%
Second Round
Scenario 1
Lula 43% (+5)
Aécio Neves 27% (-7)
Scenario 2
Lula 43% (+7)
Alkmin 29% (-5)
Scenario 3
Marina 41% (-2)
Lula 38% (+4)
Scenario 5
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 31%
Scenario 6
Lula 43%
Doria 32%
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879859-lula-amplia-lideranca-para-2018-e-bolsonaro-chega-a-2.shtmlhttp://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879971-veja-as-projecoes-do-datafolha-para-o-segundo-turno.shtmlThe poll also incudes various scenarios if Lula is banned from running in the first round as well as scenarios where Sergio Moro (the Judge in the 'carwash' case) is a candidate, although he has not indicated that he will be one