FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

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I've been out if the loop on politics all summer, can Rubio jump back into this race? Because it appears he won't be president?

No. Rubio, unlike Paul, has put all his chips in the national campaign. A multi-candidate Republican primary (in which Rubio has a candidate he is supporting in Lopez-Cantera) has already begun, in which some candidates are not Rubio's factional allies, or have been drawn out of their House districts by the Florida Supreme Court and are therefore unlikely to stand down. Rubio can always return to Florida statewide office somewhere down the line, which I think he will plan to do if a Republican administration takes office in 2016 where he is not President, VP, or Cabinet.

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Jolly released an ad that did not mention his Senate campaign once, leading many to speculate that he might recycle it if he drops out of the Senate race.

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Jolly could win his current, redistricted congressional district, but he would need a good year and a bad opponent. He has neither.

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Crist is very popular in his home region, though. He carried Pinellas County in 2010 even as he lost the state by 19 points.

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And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

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And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

Fair enough.

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So my internship ended suddenly today (I wasn't fired but I'm being replaced since my boss owes someone a favor and there isn't room for two interns) so no more Sanchez-leaks for the time being . He said he's gonna get me hooked up with the RPOF, but it looks hazy.

Good luck, Sanchez!

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Wulfric, a staunch anti-socialist has a question to ask you -- do you consider Collin Peterson (noted Bernie endorser, but generally considered to be one of the most right-wing remaining Democrats in the House) to be a socialist?

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Wulfric, a staunch anti-socialist has a question to ask you -- do you consider Collin Peterson (noted Bernie endorser, but generally considered to be one of the most right-wing remaining Democrats in the House) to be a socialist?

Yes. He endorsed Sanders for president. Only a socialist would endorse a socialist presidential candidate.

OK. I'll keep in mind reading your posts in the future that you have a unique definition of socialist that doesn't necessarily overlap with the rest of ours'.

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So... as someone who doesn't know much about political geography in Florida:

Do we expect Rubio to actually carry Miami-Dade County, or just over-perform there relative to Trump while still losing it?

In 2004, Mel Martinez got 49% statewide and in Dade County; in 2010, Rubio repeated the 49% statewide, but got only 45% in Dade. I think if Rubio wins in the high single digits over Murphy (7-8 points or greater), he should win Dade; it seems that his victory will be a little weaker than that, so Murphy will probably be able to narrowly carry the county, unless Rubio has actually gained Hispanic voters since 2010, which seems unlikely what with his Trump endorsement, but possible considering what a comically inept, scandalous candidate Murphy is. Still pretty amazing considering Clinton is winning the county by around 2:1 or so.

yeah... no. The polls are narrow enough to where Nevada's beautiful trend will put Masto narrowly over the line.

I don't know if "trend" is the right word to use here (NV trended right in 2012, and it seems very difficult to deny that it will trend right again in 2016, unless polls are wrong by significantly more than the historical norm), but it's true that it seems Heck's lead is narrow enough that typical undecided break/polling inaccuracy in Nevada should give this one to Masto.

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Over on AAD, tweed suggested a neat explanation for why all the polls seem to have this race with Rubio barely ahead but the DSCC feels so despondent -- Florida is a very strong early voting state, so enough votes may have been cast already in the correct locations that the Democrats know it's too late to stop Rubio even if the maximal imaginable Trump collapse occurs.

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Because it's Chuck Schumer. Nothing brings him more joy than his own face on TV.