If Iraq spiralls even deeper into chaos, the WMD report damns him in March, and the economy tanks (yes, some are warning of stagflation), then he's toast.
I wouldn't say that he would be toast. He's already achieved the crown jewel of American politics: being a two-term president. He can't get anything more.
The Republican Party, however, would probably be toast in the event that you describe.
He's a
weakened two term president. And of the above happens, he would be remembered as an incompetent rich frat kid. And besides, if the WMD report paints a bad picture, his approval rate premenantly falls into the low 30-upper 20 category and the Dems gain both houses he could be impeached.