How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?

[BaldEagle1991]

Am I the only guy who thinks Romney will win his home state of MA?

wat

Most candidates tend to do well in their home state.

That's assuming there's an ideological base to carry him most of the way. The home state advantage for Mitt will probably leave him just shy of 40%.

I can see. But I wouldn't underestimate home state advantages at all, they sometimes be surprising.

[ottermax]

Am I the only guy who thinks Romney will win his home state of MA?

wat

Most candidates tend to do well in their home state.

That's assuming there's an ideological base to carry him most of the way. The home state advantage for Mitt will probably leave him just shy of 40%.

I can see. But I wouldn't underestimate home state advantages at all, they sometimes be surprising.

Romney doesn't really live in Massachusetts.... in the traditional sense of the homestate effect. But Utah surely will see that boost.

[BaldEagle1991]

I'd like to see someone make a TX map, although I can see it would be long since it's big.

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Doesn't Romney have a place still in Boston? If so, he technically lives there.

But I agree on Utah, that would be perhaps in the 70-75% range for him, due to him being a Mormon and Utah being mostly Mormon.

[Joe Republic]

Romney is registered to vote in Belmont, so he is still officially a resident of Massachusetts.  But he's probably less popular there now than Al Gore was in Tennessee in 2000, so... Romney ain't carrying Massachusetts.  Even he knows that.

[Hatman 🍁]

When was the last time a major candidate expected to not win his home state? Gore doesn't count, he tried in TN.

[tpfkaw]

When was the last time a major candidate expected to not win his home state? Gore doesn't count, he tried in TN.

Adlai Stevenson, perhaps?  (Or Kemp, for VP picks).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Romney might be the first major party candidate to lose every county in his home state.

[AmericanNation]

Romney has several 'home'/'native'/"strong personal tie category" states.  Utah, New Hampshire, Michigan, Massachusetts, California. 

Strong/old business ties would be another category, for instance Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, etc. 

[Nutmeg]

Strong/old business ties would be another category, for instance Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, etc. 

These associations will be less than helpful.

[LiberalJunkie]

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Quick job here. I have Romney winning Indiana around 52-44.

I see it much closer than 52-44 due to Obama's shenanigans like he pulled in 08. Plus the primaries are nowhere near over.

'Shenanigans' like actually campaigning and devoting resources to the state?

Which Obama did in a much bigger way than McCain.  Indiana went blue because the GOP took us for granted (though I tried to prevent that).

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Only one new map out of an entire page.  Come on, peoples! 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

^^^^


Seems about right. 

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's Ohio in a roughly 50/50 race:



This has a lot of barely Romney counties since Ohio has a lot of ~R+1 counties in it and I figured the Appalachian part of the state isn't Obama's best ground, so I only gave him Athens, Monroe, and Tuscarawas.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Are you sure there would be so many Romney >40% counties?

[TJ in Oregon]

Are you sure there would be so many Romney >40% counties?

You're right there probably are too many of them. The real issue is that I wasn't sure what to do with the southeast other than move it against Obama.

[bore]

Here's Ohio in a roughly 50/50 race:



This has a lot of barely Romney counties since Ohio has a lot of ~R+1 counties in it and I figured the Appalachian part of the state isn't Obama's best ground, so I only gave him Athens, Monroe, and Tuscarawas.

Is there any reason you have Tuscarawas going for Obama, because having a look at 2008 it only went for Obama with less than 50%?

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's Ohio in a roughly 50/50 race:



This has a lot of barely Romney counties since Ohio has a lot of ~R+1 counties in it and I figured the Appalachian part of the state isn't Obama's best ground, so I only gave him Athens, Monroe, and Tuscarawas.

Is there any reason you have Tuscarawas going for Obama, because having a look at 2008 it only went for Obama with less than 50%?

Not particularly. I just figured he would still win something else besides Athens and Monroe and I am doubting it will be Jefferson. He could also still win Belmont.