Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Poirot]

A majority of the Bloc MPs have a problem with leader Martine Ouellet. Like it happened in the crisis of June of last year, 7 MPs are unhappy with Ouellet and 3 MPs (including Mario Beaulieu) side with the leader. She doesn't have the reputation of working well with others or be a team player.
   
http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/bloc-quebecois-in-turmoil-as-mps-question-martine-ouellets-leadership

[Poirot]

Leger has released a federal poll pegging the Bloc at 12% in Quebec. Guess 2015 was their last hurrah.

That poll also has questions about the Bloc.
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/RapportPolitiqueF%C3%A9d%C3%A9ralMars2018_FINAL.pdf

Bloc MP's role in Ottawa should mostly be defends Quebec interests (76%); 8% promote sovereignty. Among Bloc voters, in this poll about 40 people,  it's 69% to 31%.

52% think Ouellet should resign, 15% stay. Among the remaining Bloc voters subgroup it's split, 37% stay, 36% resign.

[Poirot]

There is a bog difference in the NDP number.
Perhaps the Ipsos numbers in Ontario is more for the provincial election than federal numbers.

[Poirot]

The mayor of Trois-Rivières, Yves Lévesque, could finally make a move to federal politics in 2019. The news speculated with the Conservatives but he had talks with both the Liberals and Conservatives in previous elections.

[Poirot]

The seven ex-Bloc MPs are considering forming their own party.

They were convinced to wait the Bloc's general council (held last weekend) before definitively cutting ties with the Bloc. MP and party President Mario Beaulieu was no longer supporting Ouellet and with maybe 40 riding presidents were behind a proposal to have a confidence vote on leadership in mid-May and it would take 75% support for her to stay. The meeting was about 200 people and the proposal was narrowly defeated. So the Ouellet plan of a confidence vote and question on primary goal of the Bloc on June 1-2 was adopted. She says a simple majority is enough for her to stay.

In her speech she blamed the ex-MPs for the crisis and fake news, criticized Duceppe. Last month she threatened media with lawsuit. Maybe she can win the confidence vote since a lot of people are leaving already. Even if she loses the vote, there is too much damaged for someone to become leader or be involved with the party.

Mario Beaulieu is thinking about his future, the VP has resigned, the director od the party and the finance director are quitting.     

[Poirot]

The federal constituency of Manicouagan will likely change name to become Côte-Nord.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1100463/la-circonscription-federale-manicouagan-change-de-nom

[Poirot]

Yikes what a crapshow. Any ideas for a name for the new parti?

The ex-Bloc MPs will registere under the name Québec Debout.
Some have said they would welcome federalists wanting to work with them to defend Quebec's interests, that they are not stricly for sovereignists. The new Bloc VP called the new party crypto federalists.

Mario Beaulieu has decided to stay in the Bloc but will work to defeat Ouellet. 

[Poirot]

Another name change for federal riding.. Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot will become Saint-Hyacinthe-Acton so the MRC d'Acton feels included and represented.

https://www.lavoixdelest.ca/actualites/nouveau-nom-meme-identite-40d819ad72b947ec0d620530d9ce48b7

The article says it's part of riding name changes wanted by MPs in bill C-402 that looks to be in Senate now and take effect in next election.
http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9831496

Nova Scotia:
Cape Breton—Canso becomes Cape Breton—North Nova
South Shore—St. Margarets becomes South Nova
Sydney—Victoria becomes Cape Breton by the Sea

Quebec:
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis becomes Lévis—Bellechasse—Etchemins
Jonquière becomes Jonquière—Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan becomes Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot becomes Saint-Hyacinthe—Acton

Ontario:
Mississauga—Streetsville becomes Streetsville—Meadowvale—Lisgar
Nickel Belt becomes Greater Sudbury—Nickel Belt

Manitoba:
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley becomes Winnipeg West—Headingley

Saskatchewan:
Regina—Lewvan becomes Regina West

Alberta:
Calgary Signal Hill becomes Calgary West
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake becomes Fort McMurray—Lac La Biche—Cold Lake

British Columbia:
Burnaby South becomes Burnaby—Douglas
Langley—Aldergrove becomes Langley—West Abbotsford
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon becomes Abbotsford—Mission—Fraser Canyon


While looking for C-402 I came across another riding name change but it's not at the same legislative stage.  C-377 would change Châteauguay—Lacolle to Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville.

http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&billId=9096762

[Poirot]

Why do they even name ridings after people in Quebec? Anything newer than Sir John A is bound to be controversial.

I imagine historically it was a way to honor political or historical figures and names are now kept because of history. For example there are 13 names of Premiers When Montreal ridings with people name merged instead of finding a new name both names were kept (like Bourassa-Sauvé, Jeanne Mance-Viger, Laurier-Dorion).

Unfortunately it's not a tradition of the past with the renaming of Crémazie to Maurice-Richard. I don't know what will happen if we get a mixed proportional system and the number of ridings reduced, if all people's name will be gone.   

[Poirot]

Illegal border crossing seems a good issue for Scheer. Angus Reid poll shows he is more trusted than Trudeau on this.

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/angus-reid-border-poll-1.4771961

[Poirot]

Two questions:

1) Anyone have suggestions for what he should call this new outfit?

Is a new party allowed to use a word associated with another registered party in its name or could Elections Canada refuse a name that could create confusion ? Could he used the word conservative in a name, like real conservative or conservative libertarian. Or just join the Libertarian party if they already have a structure instead of starting from nothing.   

[Poirot]

to go with libertarian and individual freedom theme and having a name that is similar as much as possible in English and French, I propose the name Liberty / Liberté.

[Poirot]

Bernier claims support from 3 current MPs and several former ones. Believe if seen.

I wanted to play guess the 3 MPs. I was thinking of Alupa Clarke from Quebec City who supported Bernier in the leadership race. I looked at the wiki Conservative leadership race page and the list of MPs endorsing Bernier is:

Dan Albas (Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola)
Alupa Clarke (Beauport—Limoilou)
Tony Clement (Parry Sound—Muskoka)
Jacques Gourde (Lévis—Lotbinière)
Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard)
Alex Nuttall (Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte)
Len Webber (Calgary Confederation)

I think Albas, Clement, Gourde and Nuttall have said they were not following him. That leaves Kmiec and Webber. Maybe there is someone wild like an ex Bloc or a NDP MP who would want to join a new party.

There is also a list of former MPs endorsing Bernier on the wiki leadership page (and maps of first round and last round of vote) to maybe give an idea on who could be wanting to make a comeback. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election,_2017

[Poirot]

And what's with the defeatist attitude about Trudeau and the next election? Even if it's an uphill battle, at the very least the Conservative Party could reduce the Liberals to a minority which would pave the way for a victory in the next vote. But as it stands, there's the real chance the Trudeau Liberals would win 200+ seats with just 37% of the national vote. Jean Chretien would be proud.

I wouldn't call it defeatist. The Liberal lead has declined to about 4% from 8% in the 2015 election and 15-20% earlier in Trudeau's mandate. That's not A+ material, but it isn't disastrous, especially against a popular first term PM. In fact I'd say we'd be in the minority territory you mentioned if it weren't for the NDP and Bloc pooping the bed in Quebec... but then that's not Scheer's fault is it.

Eh, it kind of is. At least insofar as he has been utterly incapable of taking advantage of the NDP/Bloc implosions. A more charismatic or intellectually forceful leader might have been able to make some intervention to shift people's perceptions, or at least capture their attention and help him redefine his image.
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The Conservatives were the beneficiary of other parties implosion. They won the Chicoutimi by- election and positioned as the only government alternative to Trudeau in polling over 20% in Quebec. Maybe Bernier will fraction the vote and jeopardize their Quebec seats but the Conservatives were working on a plan to male some gains with other parties trouble. It's not about Scheermania but it's still about leadership, choosing the people to work for you and people willing to support you or run for you.

I thought that firing Mulcair was to get a better leader to get better results. It doesn't seem to be happening for now. You get rid of the party's figurehead in Quebec if you figure you will compensate with more in other regions. Ontario has more seats so it can makes sense if the leader can deliver. Singh might have a problem with the transition to federal politics, not being from the caucus and not being always aware of the party policies. It can be tough for leaders of third place parties, the media don't talk about you much (unless you are Trudeau).   

[Poirot]

So it was probably true they were waiting after the elections to sign a deal with concessions.

[Poirot]

Le Devoir is reporting on Bernier's new party. The party has recruited 20 374 members and raised $338,000. They say by comparison the Conservative party has about 100,000 members and the Green 20,000.  The party expect to  raise $3.5 million this year. In 2017 the Conservatives raised $20 million, Liberals $15.7 million and NDP $4.8 million. The article also talks about some Conservatives in Quebec on riding executives switching to the new party.

https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/538193/parti-progressiste-conservateur-bernier-debauche-six-presidents-d-association-au-quebec   

[Poirot]

Is Pharmacare the next big policy goal, assuming the Liberals win a second term? Pharmacare has around 90% support nationally, it must have very high approval ratings even among Conservatives. I have always found it weird that we have had universal healthcare for the last 50 years, but no Pharmacare.

Would Ottawa pay for it all or send the bill to provinces. I'm curious how it would work, who would decide what drugs are on the drug insured list. For Quebec, would it be a better insurance plan than the public drug insurance plan or it keeps the same plan but Ottawa sends money for it (or part of it).

[Poirot]

Nanos is prompting for the People's Party. Only has them at 1.3%

I imagine growth will depend how much media gives them coverage, maybe these days you can get around that with social media.

If they are at 1 or 2% in polls Bernier might not be invited to particiapte in debates and great exposure that comes with it. He needs big numbers to force his way in debates.

[Poirot]

In New Brunswick, Deputy premier Robert Gauvin is pondering his ffuture with the PC party.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/gauvin-questions-future-pcs-1.4956691

[Poirot]

I'm not used to seeing the Quebec Liberals being put on the left. Being a party concerned with the economy and on the side of business, it's ususally considered centre right on economics.

[Poirot]

On the provincial scene, Catherine Fournier quit the PQ caucus and that puts Québec Solidaire with more members in the assembly into second opposition role. The PQ has always people causing problems from the inside. 

[Poirot]

nd I think he was the last Liberal Premier of Quebec if I'm not wrong.

He was not the last. Philippe Couillard was Premier from April 2014 through October 2018.