Vosem's 2014 Senate Elections Analysis

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I disagree with some of the analysis

Alabama- Safe R
Alaska- Tossup, The state was the only Romney state which trended more Dem than 2008. Like the rest of the West (except maybe ID and WY) it is becoming friendlier turf for Dems. I wouldn't count him out. Also, if Joe Miller is nominated things are looking good for him.
Arkansas- Leans D, Mark Pryor is no Blanche Lincoln. He comes from an Arkansan legacy and has much better connections and fundraising skills. He won't go down easy and Griffin and Cotton are too fresh to get the better of him.
Delaware- Safe D
Colorado- Likely D, The Republican bench is weak in CO and they lost against a more unlikeable Dem candidate in a good year (2010). Udall is very strong, and barring a run by John Elway himself the Repubs should kiss this seat goodbye.
Georgia- Likely R, This seat is safe so long as a Tea-Partier doesn't knock off Saxby Chambliss. That would possibly put it in play, given Georgia's shifting demographics. However, even then only John Barrow could win the seat.
Illinois- Safe D, Durbin will likely retire but Luis Gutierrez or Lisa Madigan will take his seat.
Idaho- Safe R
Iowa- Likely D, Tom Harkin will not retire and coast to a fifth term.
Kansas- Safe R, Pat Roberts is old and should retire so someone new can come in but he won't.
Kentucky- Leans R, Dems will likely put someone like Ashley Judd up as a distraction but it is gonna be really hard to take out Mitch in an Obama midterm.
Louisiana- Tossup, Mary Landrieu is the perfect Dem for LA but the state is trending Republican. Bill Cassidy might take her seat.
Maine- Likely R, Susan Collins won't retire yet. If she does though, Pingree is taking this seat.
Massachusetts- Safe D, Kerry will be appointed SoD, but that doesn't matter because Scott Brown is damaged goods and the Dems have a financial advantage and a wide bench here. 2010 was a fluke and no Republican will take MA.
Minnesota- Likely D, Al Franken has proven to be surprisingly popular.
Michigan- Likely D, Carl Levin will retire but Republicans have a very weak bench here.
Mississippi-Safe R
Montana- Leans D, Max Baucus has a lot of wealthy friends and great name ID. He will be a tough cookie.
Nebraska- Safe R
New Hampshire- Likely D, People really like Jeanne Shaheen and Sununu is damaged goods.
New Jersey- Safe D, Frank Lautenberg will retire but the wise Cory Booker will not bother challenging Christie and go for this instead.
New Mexico- Safe D, This is Dem country now.
North Carolina- Tossup. Kay Hagan is a bit left for this state. But, the GOP bench is weak.
Oklahoma- Safe R
Oregon- Likely D, That poll is an outlier. Merkley is popular and well connected in Portland. More importantly, the GOP has nobody!
Rhode Island- Safe D
South Carolina- Likely R, An unpopular NIkki Haley might take Graham down with her in the primaries.
South Dakota- Leans R, Mike Rounds is the frontrunner
Tennessee-Likely R, The same primary stuff.
Texas- LIkely R, see above.
Virginia- Safe D, Do you really think the GOP can take out Mark Warner?
West Virginia- Leans R, Capito is a real contender--so long as they don't primary her.
Wyoming- Safe R, Duh