CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA (user search)

Quote from: NOVA Green on June 07, 2018, 12:43:25 AM

Quote from: Tintrlvr on June 06, 2018, 02:45:30 PM

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

So haven't had a chance to check through the individual County sites yet for the 2018 "California Jungle Primary" Updates, but did spend quite a bit of time in the 2016 Democratic California Presidential Primary back in the days and spent a significant amount of time on a thread that basically turned into virtually a month long California Dem Pres Primary Results and Updates Megathread.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238320.msg5109392#msg5109392

Although I just got off work and haven't had a chance to really delve into a compare/contrast between the '16 and '18 Primary numbers, in the '16 Cali Dem Primary there were an additional 130k Dem Primary Votes updated between 6/8 early AM and 6/9 ~ 7 PM PST....

*** These numbers were gleaned from individual County websites as opposed to the Cali SoS website that only added an additional 50k votes during that same time frame ***

I have a whole spreadsheet of daily updates by County for the '16 Dem Primary, but it's stored on some remote device since my PC crashed a year or so back, and don't feel like trying to locate it right now....

The general pattern for vote counting in California tends to run as follows...

Early Mail in Votes > Election Day Votes > Late Mail in Votes > Provisional Votes

On 6/11/16 there was a huge dump of 250k Dem Primary Votes....

In '16 between early Wednesday AM and Friday PM, there were an additional 400k Dem ballots added in the Dem Pres Primary!!!!

By 6/14/16 PST PM (Monday) 200k more ballots were added....

6/15/16 PST PM (Tuesday) 250k more ballots counted...

On 6/15/16 HRC was still leading Bernie by +11%....

By 6/18/16 Cali was mostly done counting Same Day / Early Vote by Mail / Late Vote by Mail ballots....

About 65% of the bulk of the Provisional ballots in the '16 Dem Primary were from SoCal.....

Where I'm going with all this is something most of our astute Atlas forum members have already referenced or have followed:

When it comes to California Primary elections (And even more so in California General Elections) is that the later ballots counted in California tend to skew heavily younger, working-middle class, and with a much lower % of Anglos than the earliest votes reported (ED + Early VbM).

I would be extremely cautious trying to read the bird entrails or smoke the Tea Leaves regarding the California Primary Election, and potential implications for November, until we start to receive some the the Late Vote By Mail (VbM) numbers....

Remember there is a good chance that the Provos (Provisional Ballots) might well swoop in at the last minute and create some unexpected changes in certain elections, although I gather that California is trying to streamline that process a little bit, but hell every Provisional Ballot has to be matched against signature vs cross-reference against ballot sent out, Previous Voting Addresses in different Counties, Cali DMV, etc....

For any of you 'Pubs out there that might want to cry Wolf and voter fraud simply because the people voting tend to be younger, blacker and browner, and more importantly for your agenda (Democrat), do not complain when you need to wait a Month to see election results from the Golden State....

So---- Long Answer to Short Question....

Anyone with the patience, we are all waiting for the Great Leap Forward, and although California Election Results are slow, they are accurate and encourage voting and participation in the political process regardless of....

In the words of the great British artist Billy Bragg: "Great Leap Forward"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZaYEniPaJg

The provisional ballots in the last Presidential primary obviously greatly favored Bernie, and so Hillary's margin of victory tightened when all was finally counted a month later. There was some issues with NPP voters being told they couldn't vote in the Democratic primary, or being forced to vote provisionally. Of course the poor and students are more likely to move around and have to vote provisionally because of issues there.

California has always had a leftward shift as more results come on. I remember seeing Bush at like 60% in the initial results in 2000, but they still immediately called it for Gore, and I think they would have still called it even had they not been a bit too trigger happy on calling elections in 2000.

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