Why? Gillibrand is obviously the weaker of the two and Treadwell has strong money connections.
Why do you consider Gillibrand the weaker one? Her district is marginally more Republican (they're both Republican leans) but by all accounts she's an extremely gifted politician, tireless with both constituent services and fundraising. I know this makes me sound like one of her staffers, but she has more money on hand than the entire NRCC and Stu Rothenberg called her "impossible not to like."
This is a district where local relationships and supporting the community counts for far more than ideology. Hall's district, by comparison, has more affluent suburbanites who may be more loyal to the Republican party in a presidential year.
Canseco's biggest challenge will be getting past any potential Anglo opponents in the Republican primary.
Hillary would likely pull Gillibrand and Hall over the top if is the Democratic nominee. As for TX-23, that district was held by Hispanic Democrats since it was created in the 1960's until a Hispanic Democratic incumbent was convicted in 1992 and Bonilla won. Democrats for some reason conceeded the seat to him. The district is also one that Hillary will likely carry since Bush only carried it because of his strength with Texas Hispanics. Even Ron Kirk and Tony Sanchez carried the district in their landslide 2002 losses. This one will be very hard for Republicans to win back.
Well, as I'm sure you're aware of, TX-23 in 2002 in nothing like TX-23 in 2008 because of the massive redistrictings. The additional problem with using 2002 numbers for Texas and for a CD like TX-23 especially (regardless of whether you're using the 2002 district or the 2008 district) is that Sanchez engineered such massive turnout in the border counties for Democrats that it skews the numbers horribly beyond recognition. Compare 2002 with 2006 for a second.
Also, I happen to know that most of the present-day TX-23 (the border areas especially) was held from the late 1960s to the mid-1980s by Chick Kazen, a classic old conservative Democrat. I'm sure some of the present-day TX-23 was probably held by Albert Gonzalez, but whatever. Bustamante knocked Kazen off in 1984 primary as I recall. Also, as I recall, Bustamante was not convicted of fraud and racketeering until after the election in 1992. Besides, the TX-23 that he got in 1992 was ripe for the taking by Republicans because the redistricting that year really hurt him (as I remember, his favorable San Antonio part got knocked off). Bonilla did kill him that year, like 60-40.
I should also point out that I already examined generic white Republican in TX-23 for 2006 (using Jerry Patterson, who got 55% statewide and 48% in Bexar County, which I think is a good baseline - see other 2006 numbers). His numbers in TX-23 were 49.2%, the Democrat's numbers were 46.7%, and the Libertarian's were 4.1%. If the L votes were not counted, it would be 51.2% to 48.8%. I seem to remember saying that the Bush vote here in 2004 was 57% not a long time ago.
Classic swing seat, made even more swingable by the fact that the only voters that like to change preferences are along the border (or rural parts of San Antonio). So, it'll probably come down to turnout.
