2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I thought we already established that Reuters is trash.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

Ya see, while the generic ballot is closer than expected, the individual race polling and fundraising numbers seem to be more accurate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why do people keep saying Dems are losing ground with minorities because of one mediocre pollster? The Special Elections are saying the complete opposite.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

DTC, Clinton performed worse than Obama amongst minorities. Doug Jones won 98% of the black vote in Alabama. There is no evidence to suggest that Democrats are losing minorites, besides a mediocre daily tracking poll by Reuters. I expected Atlas to know better.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CBS

Democrats: 50%

Republicans: 41%
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44% of voters would be less likely to support a candidate that supports Trump compared to 28% that would.
Number is 42-25% for independents
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Party favorabilities:

Democrats-

Favorable: 41%
Unfavorable: 52% (-11)

Republicans-

Favorable: 36%
Unfavorable: 59% (-23)
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44% of independents prefer the Democrats win congress compared to 38% for the GOP. Cook released an article detailing how independents are probably going to break heavily for the Democrats: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead

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45% of voters say that a candidate that supports stricter gun laws makes them more likely to vote for them, compared to 33% saying the opposite

30% of voters say the Tax Cut law makes them more likely to support the candidate compared to 28% saying the opposite. The GOP's only key strategy for the midterms is falling apart.

45% of voters say that a candidate supporting DACA would win their vote, compared to just 20% saying the opposite

59% of voters oppose the US-Mexico border wall, just 38% support it.

46% of voters disapprove of the GOP Tax Cut law, 43% approve. Again, the GOP may want to reevaluate their midterm strategy.

35% of voters say the tax cut law will hurt their family, 30% say it will help

Overall VERY good numbers for the Democrats. They have a lot of ammunition to use against the GOP

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/six-months-before-midterms-both-parties-face-challenges-cbs-news-poll/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The bizarre trend of Trump approval going slightly up while CGB gets worse continues

It’s supposed to continue getting better for the Dems from now leading up to Election Day, plus premiums are expected to sky rocket in the fall. Like we saw in that Tennessee Senate PPP Poll, Bredesen is winning because voters are concerned about healthcare. Things are only going to get worse for the GOP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

BLUE WAVE DEAD RED WAVE ON EVEN THOUGH IT'S AN OUTLIER!!

Lol you're hackish enough to actually make an entire thread for this.

Anyways, it's an obvious outlier.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So CNN released a poll.., (Outlier)

Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%

44% is around the level of support I expect the GOP to win on election day. There's a heavy amount of undecideds, and Cook has an article explaining why the Dem margin isn't sky high: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So CNN released a poll.., (Outlier)

Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%

44% is around the level of support I expect the GOP to win on election day. There's a heavy amount of undecideds, and Cook has an article explaining why the Dem margin isn't sky high: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead

How can you in good faith call it an outlier? Another high-quality poll (PEW) has D+5, Reuters/Ipsos has D+4, D+3 is perfectly plausible.

Because the polls are shifting (as expected) to the Democrats. Reuters is not 100% reliable and you should know that by now. Besides, it's clear that the Democrats are not winning the popular vote by just 3 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Reuters/ISPOS

Democrats: 43% (+2)
Republicans: 37% (-/-)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-05-04

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw in that CNN poll that have enthusiasm numbers:

Democrats-

Enthused: 53% (+12)
Unenthused: 41%

Republicans-

Enthused: 43%
Unenthused: 46% (-3)

That's the bad news for the GOP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That's very interesting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

As a general rule of thumb, if neither side obtains 40% in a poll, then there are too many undecideds for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions from it.

This.

As for the PPP thread, while I agree with the thrust of it, I don’t believe it’s an either/or proposition. We can use special election results and polls, along with a variety of other data, to color our impressions of this fall.

Lol you always have to poo on it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Reuters 18-34 year old support:

Democrats: 43% (+6)
Republicans 25% (-1)


Black:

Democrats: 66% (+1)
Republicans: 6% (-3)

SAD! Where are all the headlines?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These headlines are doozies...

Nate Silver and Nancy Pelosi are probably laughing their asses off

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opinions/gop-wins-against-democrats-blue-wave-stewart-opinion/index.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/9/inside-the-beltway-a-red-wave-threatens-the-blue-w/

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/blue-wave-becomes-blue-puddle/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, CNN is really trying to throw their poll into the face of everybody. They have like five different headlines for it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, the poll also proves that CNN’s is a massive outlier. The past four or some polls we’ve gotten have it D+8 - D+9 and this is another one.

Anyways, some good news for the Democrats:

They hold a 15 point advantage in enthusiasm

HealthCare is a MASSIVE concern for voters, 51% say it’s one of their concerns, 23% say it’s their most important issue.

62% of people voting on HealthCare are lean/strong Democrats

55% of Republicans say their main concern on HealthCare are the costs, and as we are expecting, premiums are expected to skyrocket in the fall, so the numbers we get then will be interesting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.

That wasn't the only thing included in the competitive district polling. They also included states like North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Tennessee.

Yeah, that irked me. Morris is acting like the number is all “doom and gloom” for the Democrats but doesn’t acknowledge the fact a large plurality of the states they polled are safe R states. Those states are sure to pull the number away from the Dems.

They didn’t Poll the states with the lions share of Tossups like PA, CA, TX, NJ, etc.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They're still climaxing over it:

https://www.rt.com/usa/426517-trump-war-republicans-democrats-poll/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They're still climaxing over it:

https://www.rt.com/usa/426517-trump-war-republicans-democrats-poll/

Its best to just ignore it.

Especially since it’s fricking RT

Oh, I know I'm supposed to ignore it. It's fun to make fun of the MSM's obsession over small things.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

Just spotted that, came to delete.

Damn you both. Got me excited.

Anyways, PPP has stated that their internals have shown a consisten ten point lead for the Dems since the GOP’s healthcare debacle.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As always, I got the cross tabs

The GOP's Midwestern collapse is REAL. The Dems are winning there 43%-34% Rod Blum and Erik Paulsen are finished

18-29 year-olds going for Dems 58-21%

Blacks going 73-8% in favor of Dems

Hispanics only give the GOP 20% in support, 53% for Dems

Dems winning moderates 49-21%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol The Federalist is celebrating the fact the GOP's black support is 8% in the YouGov poll

https://twitter.com/wfbtfm/status/996145645747671040