UK local by-elections 2012

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word

Canterbury, Blean Forest

Con 44.2 (-8.8 )
Lab 23.9 (+23.9)
Lib Dem 15.6 (-0.3)
Green 8.3 (-22.8 )
UKIP 4.9 (+4.9)
Ind 3.1 (+3.1)

Nottinghamshire, Rufford

Lab 58.0 (+27.8 )
Con 24.6 (-9.6)
Notts Ind 12.9 (-22.7)
UKIP 4.6 (+4.6)

Herefordshire, St Nicholas

It's Our County 53.3 (+10.1)
Lib Dem 19.6 (+0.5)
Con 18.0 (-3.2)
Lab 9.2 (-7.3)

Cornwall, St Keverne and Meneage

Con 55.3 (+21.0)
Lib Dem 26.4 (+19.8 )
UKIP 13.3 (+13.3)
Lab 4.9 (+3.2)

Scarborough, Esk Valley

Con 67.6 (+10.6)
Ind 16.8 (-5.7)
Lab 9.7 (-10.8 )
UKIP 3.9 (+3.9)
Eng Dem 2.0 (+2.0)

[ObserverIE]

Latest Holy Word on offer here.

[ObserverIE]

Can anyone get in the count? Just wondering if I could pop down to the Town Hall for the Ormesby/Brambles Farm result?

You would be late....

Dartford, Castle

Con 43.1 (-13.3)
Lab 25.1 (+4.7)
UKIP 13.5 (+13.5)
Residents 11.3 (-2.6)
Eng Dem 7.0 (-2.4)

Middlesbrough, North Ormesby and Brambles Farm

Lab 67.8 (-12.9)
Lib Dem 15.7 (+15.7)
Ind Riley 10.2 (+10.2)
Con 5.5 (-13.8 )
Ind Bashir 0.9 (+0.9)

Blaby, Pastures

Con 61.1 (-9.6)
Lab 38.9 (+9.6)

Camden, Hampstead Town

Con 42.4 (+1.9)
Lib Dem 28.3 (-7.4)
Lab 20.9 (+4.5)
Green 8.4 (+1.0)

Runnymede, Chertsey Meads

Con 40.3 (-10.0)
UKIP 27.9 (+5.2)
Lab 27.9 (+8.6)
Lib Dem 3.0 (-4.7)
OMRLP 0.9 (+0.9)

(Labour and UKIP got exactly the same vote here.)

Runnymede, New Haw

Con 51.5 (-1.4)
Lab 22.0 (+2.0)
UKIP 18.5 (+2.4)
Lib Dem 8.0 (-3.0)

West Norfolk and King's Lynn, Spellowfields

Con 45.7 (+7.3)
Lab 31.9 (+4.7)
UKIP 11.5 (+11.5)
Green 8.0 (+8.0)
Lib Dem 2.9 (+2.9)

Norfolk, Clenchwarton and King's Lynn South

Lab 45.8 (+34.2)
Con 23.5 (-15.7)
Lib Dem 15.7 (-13.0)
UKIP 15.0 (+15.0)

[ObserverIE]

The King's Lynn result is strikingly good.

Having a Conservative candidate who's an advocate of an incinerator opposed by 92% of the locals will do things like that. What's interesting is that the boost went to Labour (previously in fourth) rather than to the Lib Dems who were a good second last time and had previously held the seat. A pretty dire set of results for the Lib Dems overall (apart from the dead cat bounce in Middlesbrough).

[ObserverIE]

Light workload tonight.

Lewisham, Whitefoot

Lab 41.9 (+4.5)
Lib Dem 29.3 (-8.6)
Con 11.7 (-5.8 )
PBP 10.9 (+7.1)
UKIP 4.5 (+4.5)
Green 1.6 (-1.9)

East Lindsey, Sutton-on-Sea North

Sutton First 54.9 (-13.2)
Con 19.6 (-1.8 )
Lab 15.0 (+4.5)
Ind 10.5 (+10.5)

[ObserverIE]

No sign of a Holy Word tonight over at BritainVotes, but there are four by-elections:

Boston, Frampton and Holme

Caused by an independent councillor resigning.

2011 result: Ind 57.0 Boston Borough Independent 28.9 UKIP 14.1

Candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP and two independents.

Brighton, East Brighton

Caused by a Labour councillor resigning.

2011 result: Lab 47.2 Con 21.9 Green 20.4 Lib Dem 6.9 TUSC 3.6

Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, TUSC and UKIP.

Kent, Maidstone Central

Caused by the death of a Lib Dem councillor.

2009 result: Lib Dem 44.2 Con 26.8 UKIP 13.7 Green 9.0 Lab 6.3

Candidates: Lib Dem, Con, UKIP, Green, Lab and English Democrats.

Maidstone, Allington

Caused by the death of (presumably the same) Lib Dem councillor.

2012 result: Lib Dem 56.6 Con 30.3 Lab 13.1

Candidates: Lib Dem, Con, Lab, UKIP and Green.

[ObserverIE]

Brighton and Hove, East Brighton

Lab 56.1 (+8.9)
Con 18.7 (-3.2)
Green 16.0 (-4.4)
UKIP 5.2 (+5.2)
Lib Dem 2.1 (-4.8 )
TUSC 1.9 (-1.7)

Maidstone, Allington

Lib Dem 52.4 (-4.2)
Con 25.7 (-4.6)
Lab 10.6 (-2.5)
UKIP 9.6 (+9.6)
Green 1.8 (+1.8 )

Kent, Maidstone Central

Lib Dem 40.1 (-4.1)
Con 24.1 (-2.7)
Lab 17.4 (+11.1)
UKIP 9.4 (-4.3)
Green 7.3 (-1.7)
Eng Dem 1.6 (+1.6)

[ObserverIE]

Caerphilly, New Tredegar

Lab 85.3 (+15.1)
PC 11.7 (+11.7)
Con 3.0 (+3.0)

Windsor and Maidenhead, Pinkneys Green

Lib Dem 43.2 (+1.6)
Con 42.8 (-5.4)
UKIP 7.8 (+7.8 )
Lab 6.2 (-4.0)

Hartlepool, Seaton

Hartlepool First 38.4 (+24.9)
Lab 22.7 (+8.4)
Ind 16.8 (-33.8 )
UKIP 11.1 (-2.0)
Con 8.2 (-0.3)
Lib Dem 2.7 (+2.7)

Fenland, St Mary's

Con 62.5 (+16.5)
Ind 25.2 (-15.7)
Lab 12.3 (+12.3)

South Oxfordshire, Didcot All Saints

Lab 47.0 (+4.6)
Con 36.7 (-6.9)
Lib Dem 16.3 (+2.6)

[ObserverIE]

Bath and North East Somerset, Chew Valley North

Con 50.9 (-22.9)
Lib Dem 33.0 (+19.6)
Ind 12.9 (+12.9)
Green 3.2 (+3.2)

Bournemouth, Littledown and Iford

Con 54.0 (+2.8 )
Lab 16.5 (+0.9)
UKIP 15.3 (+15.3)
Lib Dem 14.3 (+4.0)

Bradford, Wharfedale

Con 54.0 (-6.8 )
Lab 19.4 (+0.7)
Green 12.8 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 8.9 (+3.7)
UKIP 5.0 (+5.0)

Bury, Church

Con 48.6 (-2.6)
Lab 39.2 (+5.2)
UKIP 10.9 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 1.2 (-2.5)

Bury, North Manor

Con 54.3 (-2.4)
Lab 26.4 (-0.8 )
UKIP 10.3 (+10.3)
Green 5.2 (-5.6)
Lib Dem 3.8 (-1.5)

Central Bedfordshire, Biggleswade South

Con 38.3 (-21.7)
Lab 31.2 (-8.8 )
Ind 26.1 (+26.1)
Lib Dem 4.4 (+4.4)

Central Bedfordshire, Silsoe and Shillington

Ind 55.0 (+55.0)
Con 24.6 (-21.6)
UKIP 7.6 (+7.6)
Lib Dem 6.9 (-34.0)
Green 5.8 (-0.7)

Cherwell, Banbury Ruscote

Lab 56.7 (-4.8 )
Con 32.4 (+0.3)
UKIP 10.9 (+10.9)

Chiltern, Central

Con 74.0 (+0.4)
Lib Dem 9.3 (-17.1)
Lab 9.0 (+9.0)
UKIP 7.8 (+7.8 )

Conwy, Deganwy

Con 38.4 (+3.3)
PC 28.7 (+28.7)
Lab 12.5 (+12.5)
Ind Edwards 6.5
UKIP 5.0 (+5.0)
Lib Dem 4.7 (-10.2)
Ind Bullock 4.3

Daventry, Brixworth

Con 63.9 (+20.1)
Green 36.1 (+12.7)

Dumfries and Galloway, Annandale North

Con 46.0 (+5.5)
Lab 25.3 (+5.7)
Green 11.7 (-2.6)
SNP 9.4 (-7.4)
Lib Dem 5.3 (-3.6)
UKIP 2.3 (+2.3)

Con 1819 1857 1922 1980 Lab 1002 1008 1053 1149 Green 464 475 508 617 SNP 371 375 399 Lib Dem 208 211 UKIP 89 East Northamptonshire, Oundle Con 52.4 (-10.7) Lab 35.6 (-1.3) Lib Dem 12.0 (+12.0) Eden, Penrith Pategill Lib Dem 53.6 (+15.5) Con 20.9 (-20.9) Lab 18.7 (+18.7) BNP 6.8 (+6.8 ) Harlow, Toddbrook Lab 52.5 (-1.7) Con 33.3 (-6.0) UKIP 9.6 (+9.6) Lib Dem 4.6 (-1.8 ) Harrogate, Rossett Lib Dem 46.3 (+21.3) Con 40.4 (-22.3) UKIP 7.3 (+7.3) Lab 6.1 (-6.2) Havant, Battins Lib Dem 51.0 (+15.9) Lab 21.2 (-19.5) Con 17.2 (-7.0) UKIP 10.6 (+10.6) Liverpool, Knotty Ash Lab 68.6 (-2.8 ) Lib Dem 8.4 (-4.7) Lib 7.4 (+4.6) UKIP 5.7 (+5.7) Eng Dem 2.8 (+2.8 ) TUSC 2.7 (-0.1) Con 2.3 (-1.9) Green 2.0 (-3.6) Manchester, Ardwick Lab 80.5 (+0.1) Green 5.1 (-1.7) Lib Dem 4.0 (-0.7) Con 3.9 (-1.3) UKIP 2.6 (+2.6) TUSC 2.2 (-0.8 ) BNP 1.8 (+1.8 ) Melton, Melton Egerton Ind 43.8 (+17.4) Lab 40.2 (+0.2) Con 15.9 (-17.6) Merthyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa Lab 33.0 (-4.8 ) Merthyr Ind 31.2 (-12.3) Ind 24.8 (+24.8 ) PC 8.7 (-10.0) Con 2.2 (+2.2) Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Ouseburn Lab 47.6 (+11.7) Lib Dem 44.3 (-6.3) Newcastle First 4.9 (+4.9) Con 3.3 (-0.7) North Hertfordshire, Hitchwood, Offa and Hoo Con 56.8 (-7.4) UKIP 15.9 (+15.9) Lab 13.9 (-3.1) Lib Dem 8.1 (+0.4) Green 5.3 (-5.8 ) North Hertfordshire, Letchworth South East Con 51.3 (+12.2) Lab 26.9 (-3.4) UKIP 12.4 (-2.2) Lib Dem 5.9 (-2.3) Green 3.4 (-4.3) North Tyneside, Wallsend Lib Dem 58.2 (+10.4) Lab 34.8 (-13.2) Con 3.6 (-0.6) Green 3.3 (+3.3) Oldham, Failsworth West Lab 54.1 (-6.8 ) UKIP 31.8 (-1.5) Con 7.9 (+7.9) Green 4.4 (+4.4) Lib Dem 1.7 (-4.2) Poole, Branksome East Con 42.0 (-15.8 ) Lib Dem 19.3 (-6.5) Poole People 18.6 (+18.6) UKIP 10.0 (-6.4) Lab 7.9 (+7.9) BNP 2.1 (+2.1) Rugby, New Bilton Lab 49.3 (+1.5) Con 19.1 (-7.6) Green 9.9 (-5.6) UKIP 8.2 (+8.2) Ind 5.6 (+5.6) Lib Dem 4.1 (+4.1) TUSC 3.9 (-6.1) Ryedale, Norton West Lib Dem 59.8 (+29.9) Con 28.4 (+2.4) Lab 11.8 (-0.2) St Edmundsbury, Risbygate Green 51.8 (+29.8 ) Con 31.4 (+5.9) Lab 16.8 (+5.4) Swindon, Blunsdon and Highworth Con 50.9 (+4.8 ) Lab 37.6 (+8.6) UKIP 6.8 (+6.8 ) Green 3.9 (-7.6) Ind 0.8 (+0.8 ) Walsall, Bloxwich West Lab 50.2 (-4.3) Con 37.5 (+4.4) UKIP 9.3 (+9.3) Lib Dem 2.9 (-0.3) Watford, Central Lib Dem 45.9 (-1.7) Lab 35.3 (+4.3) Con 9.7 (-1.1) Green 5.3 (-0.9) UKIP 3.8 (-0.6) Waveney, Beccles South Con 39.6 (+13.4) Green 29.7 (+15.7) Lab 28.1 (-6.3) Lib Dem 3.5 (+3.5) Wealden, Heathfield North and Central Con 49.1 (-20.4) UKIP 21.6 (+21.6) Lab 16.1 (-14.4) Lib Dem 13.2 (+13.2) West Sussex, Midhurst Con 78.2 (+9.8 ) UKIP 21.8 (+21.8 ) Wolverhampton, Park Lab 58.0 (-1.0) Con 27.3 (+6.8 ) Lib Dem 10.1 (+4.3) UKIP 4.6 (-2.3)

[ObserverIE]

Shepway, Folkestone Park

Lib Dem 36.2 (+14.3)
Con 25.1 (-17.3)
People First 15.7 (+3.3)
UKIP 12.0 (+1.8 )
Lab 8.7 (-4.4)
Green 2.3 (+2.3)

(Turnout 25.8 )

[ObserverIE]

Stratford-on-Avon, Shipston

Lab 40.4 (+11.6)
Lib Dem 37.9 (-5.4)
Con 21.8 (-2.6)

Southwark, East Walworth

Lab 53.4 (+10.3)
Lib Dem 42.6 (+5.2)
Con 4.0 (-7.0)

Na h-Eileanan Siar, Sgir'Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch

Ind Morrison 73.5
SNP 19.2
Ind Mac an Ultaigh 7.2

[ObserverIE]

what the f[inks]

Holy Word may provide some assistance.

[ObserverIE]

Neath Port Talbot, Neath South

Lab 75.4 (+17.2)
Lib Dem 24.6 (+24.6)

South Staffordshire, Wombourne North and Lower Penn

Con 59.3 (-5.2)
UKIP 26.7 (-8.8 )
Lab 14.0 (+14.0)

Brentwood, Shenfield

Lib Dem 50.7 (-3.3)
Con 38.8 (+0.1)
UKIP 8.3 (+8.3)
Lab 2.2 (-5.1)

Sutton, Stonecot

Lib Dem 53.3 (+3.3)
Con 20.7 (-12.2)
Lab 14.9 (+5.3)
UKIP 9.4 (+9.4)
Green 1.6 (+1.7)

Vale of White Horse, Sunninghill and Wootton

Lib Dem 62.4 (+29.3) (577, 549)
Con 37.6 (-6.4) (346, 333)

Cornwall, Gwinear-Gwithian and St. Erth

Con 35.3 (-2.8 )
Ind Furneaux 17.7 (-16.4)
Ind Roberts 17.3
Lib Dem 12.9 (-9.3)
Lab 8.1 (+2.5)
MK 6.2 (+6.2)
Ind Elliott 2.6

[ObserverIE]

So... Neath is not like Wombourne or Brentwood?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueZ6tvqhk8U

(Viewers of a Mitt Romney-ish disposition are advised not to click the link.)

[ObserverIE]

Brentwood, Shenfield
Lab 2.2 (-5.1)

How many votes is that, three?

31. I think the Tories managed to get lower in one of the Newcastle by-elections.

[ObserverIE]

A remarkably good day of by-elections for the Lib Dems. This supports the thesis I was putting forward on the "will UKIP beat the Lib Dems in 2015" thread. The local election results support the idea that in some places Lib Dem support has collapsed and in others that they are still competitive. Individual by-elections will turn on local factors but the overall impression is (in my view) compelling and will translate to similarly patchy general election results.

Two of those results from last night are in Lib Dem-held seats (Stonecot: Carshalton/Wallington and Gwinear, etc.:St Ives). The Carshalton result is good enough but the Cornish result is nothing special in a seat where the Lib Dem majority fell back sharply last time and they need to keep suppressing the Labour vote. The result in Sunninghill is good in one of their few realistic targets next time (Oxford West/Abingdon) but the Lib Dem candidates were both local whereas the Tories weren't and it was a straight fight with no alternative receptacles for a non-Tory vote.

I expect the Lib Dem constituency vote to be camel-shaped: one very large hump in the mid single figures and a much smaller hump around 30%+ in the seats they hold or are credible in. I'm not sure if there will be much in between.

[ObserverIE]

Harrogate, Bilton

Lib Dem 46.0 (+8.8 )
Con 29.2 (-16.1)
Lab 15.4 (-2.1)
UKIP 9.4 (+9.4)

[ObserverIE]

Spelthorne, Sunbury Common

Lib Dem 46.6 (-9.0)
UKIP 22.8 (+5.0)
Lab 16.2 (+16.2)
Con 14.4 (-12.2)

Norwich, Crome

Lab 59.3 (-2.5)
Con 17.4 (-1.5)
UKIP 15.6 (+15.6)
Green 4.9 (-8.4)
Lib Dem 2.8 (-3.3)

Norwich, Nelson

Green 56.0 (-3.5)
Lab 29.9 (+4.7)
Lib Dem 8.7 (+2.4)
Con 5.4 (-3.6)

[ObserverIE]

Resignations (health in the case of the Labour seat, political disagreement in the case of the Green one).

[ObserverIE]

The Holy Word doesn't mention the interesting views of the UKIP candidate in Kent...

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend_messenger/news/2012/december/20/geoffrey_clark.aspx

Compulsory advice on euthanasia for the over 80s might have a bit of an effect on the UKIP core vote...

[ObserverIE]

Gravesham, Meopham North (figures in italics represent changes since October 2011 by-election)

Con 54.6 (-17.3) (+7.3)
Cull the disabled and elderly UKIP 26.6 (+26.6) (-7.1)
Lab 14.1 (-14.0) (+5.9)
Lib Dem 4.7 (+4.7) (-6.1)

Kent, Gravesham Rural

Con 61.3 (+1.3)
Cull the disabled and elderly UKIP 21.8 (+21.8 )
Lab 13.7 (+4.2)
Lib Dem 3.1 (-6.0)