Hungary parliamentary election April 8 2018

[DavidB.]

Fidesz will win a supermajority

They probably won't. But they'll win another majority.

[DavidB.]

This article on the Hungarian electoral system was interesting to me.

[DavidB.]

Ummmm.
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/974320174131306496

[DavidB.]

This is the world in 2018 folks, Jesus Christ.

Is this guy's party going to get thrown out of EPP at the very least?

Long live Orban. I love the dude

Because antisemitic speeches are cool?

[DavidB.]

Negotiations between MSzP, DK, LMP and Jobbik are currently taking place. Most people on the left agree that Fidesz can only be ousted from government if all other parties work together and run only one opposition candidate in all districts, but there is a divide between those who are willing to cooperate with Jobbik in order to do so and those who think Jobbik are beyond the pale. Without Jobbik this would go nowhere, as the left is simply too weak in almost all districts outside Budapest.

[DavidB.]

I find it hilarious that the FPTP aspect of Hungary's election system is getting so much criticism.  I agree with its unfairness, but the idea that US, Canadian or British observers are some of those critics is pretty ironic.

FPTP in itself isn't what is being criticized. The issue is that the surplus for winners of FPTP districts is added to parties' list vote, which basically rigs the election for Fidesz.

[DavidB.]

Nope, only the surplus for winning FPTP candidates is added to the list vote. It sounds too crazy to be true, but it's true.

[DavidB.]

You are right, I looked it up and the official website states that losing candidates can add their votes to the national list too. Still a weird clause imo. I tend to like MMM in more developed democracies (would not mind introducing it in NL, without the Hungarian surplus clause of course), but countries like Hungary and Georgia show us how not to do it.

[DavidB.]

53.6% turnout at 15:00, still higher than in any other general election from 2002 onward.

[DavidB.]

70% turnout in a general election would be amazing for a country in post-Communist Europe and even very decent by European standards: better than the UK and Ireland, on par with Finland, close to Italy.

[DavidB.]

Turnout was 68.1% at 18:30.

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983031229913206784
Bad result for Fidesz if accurate.

[DavidB.]

Polls aren't closing anytime soon, it seems.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983033562520748032

[DavidB.]

If this is true, they should be kicked out of the EU without a doubt. The EU has no place for dictatorships and that includes pseudo-democracies with rigged elections

You are aware that this is not possible from a legal perspective?

[DavidB.]

I agree that irregularities should be taken seriously, but let's first wait for the details. If it's something serious, then yes, there should be repercussions.

[DavidB.]

That's quite a surprise.

[DavidB.]

Fidesz percentage is slowly going down. With almost 85% counted, they're at 48.95% of the list PV and 133 seats. They might lose their 2/3 majority, because I think much of what's coming in right now is from Budapest. Still, a very strong showing regardless, stronger than expected in the days before the election.

Opposition parties winning only three FPTP seats out of Budapest (Jobbik 1, MSZP 1, Fügettlen 1 -- I assume the latter is an independent or something).

[DavidB.]

The center-left opposition had probably won Budapest-2, Budapest-3, Budapest-4, Budapest-13 and Budapest-14 had the LMP FPTP candidate stood down and endorsed a DK/MSZP/Együtt candidate: all incredibly close races where the LMP got between 5% and 10%. And if in Budapest-6, the Budapest district Fidesz won by the biggest margin, the Együtt and LMP candidates had both stood down for the DK candidate, Fidesz might not have won a single FPTP seat in Budapest. This could easily make the difference for a 2/3 majority.

[DavidB.]

With 97% counted, Fidesz still have 133 seats, though their PV % has gone down further to 48.45%. In Pest-2, 96% is in and the Fidesz candidate is still ahead by 0.8%.

[DavidB.]

So the ballot-stuffing probably did happen.

No evidence for this yet, though I share some of your suspicion. But it is not at all unlikely that pollsters simply underestimated the extent to which people were willing to get out and vote for Fidesz. Until e-day there were many people who refused to say whom they were going to vote for. I think we know the answer by now.

[DavidB.]

Bring back Kádár

With this kind of comment, even if edgy and ironic, you completely disqualify yourself from criticizing Orbán's authoritarian tendencies -- you get that, right?

[DavidB.]

When the going gets tough, the weak vote for a joke party.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983108479450800128

[DavidB.]

So no evidence of fraud on e-day whatsoever. "Intimidating and xenophobic rhetoric" is hogwash; the other points (media bias, use of administrative resources, ruling party spending more on the campaign) are fair criticisms but, to a certain extent, pertain to almost all countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

[DavidB.]

Exactly.

[DavidB.]

nice maps Oryx.  

Is there any particular reason Jobbik did so much better in some places than others?  Is that just down to candidates?

They tend to do the best in the area northeast of Budapest, which has a relatively big Romani population and is also among the more economically deprived areas. Some of the areas close to the Balaton lake are also strongholds, but I don't know why, other than that Lajos Rig was an incumbent Jobbik MP with an FPTP seat once won in a by-election.