Israel

[danny]

Bump.  If no coalition is formed, when will the next elections be held?

Early next year, probably. But the chances of a new coalition are pretty small now.

Interesting.  Has anybody seen any polls recently?

Election will be Feb 10th

a recent poll

Kadima 29
Likud 28
Labor 11
Shas 11
Yisrael Beiteinu 9
New reeligous party (Mafdal + ichud leumi) 7
Agudat Israel 7
Meretz 6
Greens0-2
Gil 0-2
Chadash+ta'al+ ra'am 10

Interesting; is that an improvement for Likud?

A big one, they had all time loa of 12 seats in the outgoing Knesset because many of their leaders (Sharon, Olmart) moved to Kadima.

I meant in terms of the polls.

Oh, I see. They had 26 to 33 so this one is not that good.

Any idea why?

I guess with some old faces coming back this week to the party (Beny Begin, Dan Meridor) they might come better on the next poll.

Intersting.  Well, the election is coming soon, so we'll know.

February 10th is soon?

Considering the length of some other election campaigns 3 months is nothing.

[danny]

Any word on possible coalitions yet?

Livni rejected Bibis for now so it looks like a narrow right coalition (Likud-YB-Shas-UTJ-NU-Jewish Home). however, some Kadima members have indicated that they would like to sit in the coalition, so Kadima may split with one part in opposition and the other in the coalition.

[danny]

Any word on possible coalitions yet?

Livni rejected Bibis for now so it looks like a narrow right coalition (Likud-YB-Shas-UTJ-NU-Jewish Home).

I wouldn't exactly call a 65-55 majority "narrow"

In Israel that's pretty small compared to recent coalitions, and it's smaller than a coalition that would have included Kadima.

[danny]

If Netanyahu doesn't succeed in making a coalition, could the Israelis remake some general elections, technically?

If Bibi can't form a government, and then no one else manages, then yes, there will be a new election.

[danny]

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/03/20/world/international-us-israel-politics-netanyahu.html?hp

Netanyahu now looking to possible Labor involved coalition.

How much time does Bibi have to form a coalition?

Another 14 days.

[danny]

I very well may be the first anti-Zionist conservative here. Funny.

bono, stark

[danny]

It's interesting that the writer takes it as a given that the government isn't representative of the people and that the majority are to the right of the government.

Of course, if there is a majority for an agreement, the same majority could simply get rid of this law first to avoid a referendum.

[danny]

It's interesting that the writer takes it as a given that the government isn't representative of the people and that the majority are to the right of the government.

Of course, if there is a majority for an agreement, the same majority could simply get rid of this law first to avoid a referendum.

You don't even need a majority, a plurality will do. 20 MK can abolish the law tomorrow if they want to. the truth is that this law has a symbolic meaning and not much more, any PM who'll want to to retreat from any part of the state of Israel will just abolish the law in a simple vote, no need for an absolute majority.

Yes, I should have been more clear I meant the majority of voting MKs.

[danny]

It's interesting that the writer takes it as a given that the government isn't representative of the people and that the majority are to the right of the government.

Of course, if there is a majority for an agreement, the same majority could simply get rid of this law first to avoid a referendum.

You don't even need a majority, a plurality will do. 20 MK can abolish the law tomorrow if they want to. the truth is that this law has a symbolic meaning and not much more, any PM who'll want to to retreat from any part of the state of Israel will just abolish the law in a simple vote, no need for an absolute majority.

Yes, I should have been more clear I meant the majority of voting MKs.

The quote from the article above states that a two-thirds supermajority would be required to overrule the law - is it incorrect?

As long as the law is in place you would need a supermajority to give away territory without a referendum. However, nothing prevents a normal plurality from getting rid of the law itself.

[danny]

A poll taken on sunday, second number is the change from the 2009 election:

Likud: 32  +5
Kadima: -2
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman): 18 +3
Arab parties: 10 -1
Shas: 9 -2
Avoda: 8 -5
UTJ: 5 0
Ichud Leumi: 4 0
Jewish home: 3 0
Centrist party headed by Yair Lapid: 3 new
Meretz: 2 -1

right: 71 +6
left-centre-Arabs: 49 -6

current governing coalition: 75 +1

link: http://news.walla.co.il/?w=/2687/1764270/892325/5/@@/media

[danny]

I don't understand why Labor continues to attempt to be a right-wing party. It's not working.

They're not trying to be a right wing party they're in the coalition because Barak cares more about being defence minister than how many votes his party get next election, and the union wants to influence the government on stuff it cares about (and doesn't care about the peace process and the Palestinians).

[danny]

Another interesting part of the poll is that apparently bibi gets  78% favourable ratings for his handling of the recent forest fires that killed 42 people.

[danny]

Regarding Labour, their rationale is clear- if they want to become the largest left-wing party they must differentiate themselves from Kadima. That means if Kadima's in the coalition they are not and the other way around. It obviously doesn't work but that is the general idea.

I think your giving Labour too much credit for having a plan for the elections, I don't think they do. As long as the ruling faction within labour of barak and the union remains in power the party doesn't really care much about future elections because I don't think Barak plans to lead Labour in another election and the union doesn't need Labour anymore anyway.