2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Holmes]

Newfoundland, PEI and Saskatchewan will be a total snooze. Manitoba is turning into one as well. Ontario is turning into a real race. We need a BC election as well! That would be dirty. And Yukon can be very interesting as well. Or boring. Unpredictable.

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba a snooze? Last poll had a tie!

[lilTommy]

Snooze i'm guess equals competative, policy based campaigns? Manitoba will be exciting as its expected to be a tight race... but i agree its already looking like the NDP is doing quite well and the Tories just can't seem to make anything work. Its still really early though.

Ontario is a fight, and all three parties are coming out of the gate ready! the Liberals seem to be playing the dirtiest with the NDP (see Horwath at Crowes office, reporter were accosted by a Grit staffer desperate to show them a rediculous video of the NDP van).

We also forget (since there are no parties) the NWT has elections... what are peoples thoughts on the concensus gov't vs the party government (the Yukon uses the southern model and Nunavut uses concensuc)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Consensus fails because you cant pick your Premier. If they had a direct vote for that office, then it would work.

[Hatman 🍁]

Im not sure how to cover that election in maps. I guess I could do a turnout map or something, or show where incumbents lost.

Anyways, a SK poll has been released, and it's even worse for the NDP:

SP: 63
NDP: 26
Lib: 6
Grn: 3

[lilTommy]

GAH! well that's a terrible number... Still no election yet, and my optimism is still in place that the NDP wont do that bad... until the leaders debate that is (see link previously about a policy driven campaign)
http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Poll+indicates+Sask+Party+lead+fall+vote+nears/5373651/story.html ... The NDP still leads in one region!! OK its the North and they have like what 2 ridings?

based on the story, Lingenfelter is one of the reasons with a 55% dissatisfaction. I'd have gone with Meili (or even Higgins), Lingy was probably their worst choice for leader, but hey that time is long gone. My only hope is that the NDP can lick their wounds and Lingy resigns (I'm still utterly disappointed that Meili wont run this election, has he been that disheartened by the leadership loss?)

Well remember Quebec in May?, people might love Brad and just vote SaskParty not giving a hoot about who the local candidate is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's no way he stays as leader if the inevitable defeat is anywhere near that bad.

[adma]

There's no way he stays as leader if the inevitable defeat is anywhere near that bad.

Though given how urban-vs-rural polarized the electorate is compared to 1982, he could *still* win more seats now compared to then...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's no way he stays as leader if the inevitable defeat is anywhere near that bad.

Though given how urban-vs-rural polarized the electorate is compared to 1982, he could *still* win more seats now compared to then...

Not impossible, though if the Sask Party really does end up leading the pv by over 30pts then a lot of places that have no business being lost will go.

Does anyone know anything about the record of the company that did the poll, btw?

[2952-0-0]

Does anyone else have the gut feeling that Hudak is the right type of leader to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by taking his faux-populism too far?

Looks like that wasn't a joke after all.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

God I hope so. Hudak is the only dangerous politician out there.

[RogueBeaver]

As a Tory, I have three beefs with Hudak's strategy. 1) Far too soft on the deficit 2) EE distracting from what should be a laser-beam focus on Disaster Dad 3) Running a Deweyesque campaign during the summer.

[MaxQue]

The Legault Party isn't running in anything this year, and Bonaventure stays Liberal. I honestly don't see the BFD about Legault, except that the media is making a very unremarkable ex-Peq minister a BFD.

He confirmed that.
Legault also said they may run if the election is in 2012. He said he could perhaps run himself in Bonaventure.
In other news from that part of Quebec, Nancy Charest, former Liberal MNA and federal Liberal candidate in 2008 and 2011 and which seems to have a personality cult there is supporting Legault. She could run for Legault in Matane next time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nomination day in Ontario was yesterday and today's is PEI. Im looking forward to the final list.  Wikipedia only lists 2 NDP candidates in all of PEI, so I'm interested to see how many there will be.

[lilTommy]

Nomination day in Ontario was yesterday and today's is PEI. Im looking forward to the final list.  Wikipedia only lists 2 NDP candidates in all of PEI, so I'm interested to see how many there will be.

James Rodd  SAID they were going to run a full slate... lets see if that happens. I honestly feel the momentum, and focus by the party in the maritimes will be in winning ground in NFLD. Last time i looked they had filled 31 of the 48 ridings.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When I ran, we ran a full slate.

That is, we did everything we could to do so. But not enough people wanted to run, and we did not.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP only nominated 14 out 27
Greens 22 and the new Island Party nominated 12. I dont know anything about them.

The NDP ran 15 candidates in 2007 and 24 when Teddy ran for them in 2003. Last time they ran a full slate was in 2000.

[lilTommy]

NDP only nominated 14 out 27
Greens 22 and the new Island Party nominated 12. I dont know anything about them.

The NDP ran 15 candidates in 2007 and 24 when Teddy ran for them in 2003. Last time they ran a full slate was in 2000.

http://www.electionspei.ca/provincial/candidates/index.php - here are all the candidates, can anyone comment on the any of the NDP candidates having a shot? Some are saying, based on the federal results, that the NDP could (could) be competative in three Charlottetown ridings?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

NDP only nominated 14 out 27
Greens 22 and the new Island Party nominated 12. I dont know anything about them.

The NDP ran 15 candidates in 2007 and 24 when Teddy ran for them in 2003. Last time they ran a full slate was in 2000.

http://www.electionspei.ca/provincial/candidates/index.php - here are all the candidates, can anyone comment on the any of the NDP candidates having a shot? Some are saying, based on the federal results, that the NDP could (could) be competative in three Charlottetown ridings?

Jane Dunphy is very competent. Edith Perry is very dedicated. James Rodd has good leadership qualities. Kat Murphy has her heart in the right place. Jacquie Robichaud is fair. Paulette Halupa is on the left of the party.

I knew all of them personally when I sat on the PEI NDP Executive. Sadly, none of them has any chance unless the polls radically change.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP did the best federally in Charlottetown-Victoria Park, but with the Green leader running there it probably won't be their best seat in the provincial election.

[Hatman 🍁]

PEI projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/prince-edward-island-projection-sept-20.html

[DL]

New poll out of Newfoundland:

MQO Research poll: PC: 53% NDP: 29% LIB: 18%. Leaders: KD: 64% LM: 22% KA: 14% Margin: +/-4.9% Sample: 413 Date: 09/16-09/18

To put things in perspective - in the last election the NDP took 6% of the vote and didn't even have a full slate of candidates. If those votes are at all concentrated in St. John's (as I suspect they are) - the NDP could easily go from 1 seats to 8 or 9!

[lilTommy]

New poll out of Newfoundland:

MQO Research poll: PC: 53% NDP: 29% LIB: 18%. Leaders: KD: 64% LM: 22% KA: 14% Margin: +/-4.9% Sample: 413 Date: 09/16-09/18

To put things in perspective - in the last election the NDP took 6% of the vote and didn't even have a full slate of candidates. If those votes are at all concentrated in St. John's (as I suspect they are) - the NDP could easily go from 1 seats to 8 or 9!

Lets not forget, that the NDP, especially with those numbers could win back Labrador West and maybe take Burin-Placentia West (they were very very close last time). Worse for the liberals is that they might be shut out completely this time which would be a disaster for a province with famous Liberals premiers like Smallwood and Tobin.

[DL]

I also wonder whether if the Liberals get wiped out provincially in NL, it would put a lot of pressure on some of the 4 remaining federal Liberal MPs in NL to switch to the NDP or the Tories.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP's support is concentrated in St.John's. On 30% they could take every riding in the city and not a single one outside of it.