Can we get a map showing the approval ratings of Trump in every state? (user search)
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  Can we get a map showing the approval ratings of Trump in every state? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Can we get a map showing the approval ratings of Trump in every state?  (Read 2265 times)
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 26, 2017, 09:07:46 PM »

Is there any reason for me to believe the polls when they showed him losing Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania and doing worse in Minnesota Ohio Maine North Carolina Virginia Colorado Iowa ?

Absolutely.  Trump was never well liked to begin with, he won largely because Hillary Clinton had low approval ratings too.  In fact Trump and Clinton had the two worst approval ratings of any candidate since polling has began.  Low approval rating doesn't mean he will automatically lose those states.  It means people would vote differently if there is a better alternative, but once the Democrats choose their leader, then it will become amongst those dissatisfied Trump voters who do they dislike less.  While the majority of Trump and Clinton voters were satisfied with their candidate, there was a sizeable minority, I believe as much as 25%, who disliked both candidates and voted for whomever they disliked less.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,837
Canada


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« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2017, 02:16:46 PM »

Is there any reason for me to believe the polls when they showed him losing Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania and doing worse in Minnesota Ohio Maine North Carolina Virginia Colorado Iowa ?

Pollsters regularly change their methodology, and polling biases change from cycle to cycle. While some states like Nevada and Michigan have notoriously bad polling, there isn't much reason to believe that polls will necessarily be biased against Trump in the future. I'd say it's just as likely that 2020 polls end up having a slight pro-Trump bias as it is that they underestimate Trump again.

Very true as polls often overreact and tend to adjust for their mistakes the last time forgetting the electorate each time changes.  In 2012 most polls underestimated the Democrats and overestimated the GOP.  Across the pond you saw the same thing, the polls adjusted their methodology after missing 2015 badly whereas had they kept the same methodology they would have gotten 2017 right but by adjusting they missed it again.  I think the real thing is determining who will show up.  Will Trump's unpopularity motivate much of the Obama coalition to show up again like in 2008 and 2012 or will they stay home like in 2016.
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