2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

LOL at the Quinnipiac poll causing the 538 Dem advantage to go down 2 points --> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[LimoLiberal]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

[LimoLiberal]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

Just to be clear, this isn't me panicking about Qpac. This is me mocking how horrible their sample is... considering we have Pew, Harvard, Reuters, etc. all saying Democrats are taking young voters by massive margins.

[LimoLiberal]

Lmao. Podhoretz and NRSC and NRCC operatives are now trumpeting the Quinnipiac poll as a sign of a red wave on twitter.

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Data Week of 4/11: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-04-11


RV
Democrats - 44 (+1)
Republicans - 34

[LimoLiberal]

AZ-08 Special Election, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Trump won this district by 21 points in 2016.

[LimoLiberal]

SurveyUSA poll for CA-49
Rocky Chavez (R) - 16%

Doug Applegate (D) - 12%

Mike Levin (D) - 9%

Diane Harkey (R) - 8%

Paul Kerr (D) - 8%

Sara Jacobs (D) - 7%

Kristin Gaspar (R) - 5%

Brian Maryott (R) - 5%

Race tightening among Dems. Paul Kerr and Sara Jacobs saw the most movement towards them since February, while Applegate had a steep decline of 6 points, while Mike Levin has been straggling at the same support level.

Could you link this?

[LimoLiberal]

I redid my House/Senate polling chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lEBtD0DPaliUWSZQclSl_HqTZAO_bRrxjDRZPPrAKgM/edit#gid=0

Feel free to view it if you want. I'll try to update it every other day.

[LimoLiberal]

Tidbit from this politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/13/gop-house-seats-trump-country-519214

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[LimoLiberal]

Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania poll:

Congressional Generic Ballot

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 38

For reference, Democrats lost the 2016 congressional vote 46-54 in 2016.

I would estimate Democrats pick up PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-01, PA-17, with competitive but r-tilting races in PA-10 and PA-16.

[LimoLiberal]

ABC/WashingtonPost Poll: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.f83264c71cc2

Among RV

Democrats - 47
Republicans - 43

D+4. It was D+12 in January.

[LimoLiberal]

Monmouth New Jersey Poll: https://t.co/zwSzT8Euuy

Statewide Congressional Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 35

In GOP-held seats:

Democrats - 44
Republicans - 46

Democrats won the statewide congressional vote 54-46 (D+8) in 2016.

[LimoLiberal]

That Monmouth poll only represents a 2.88% shift from 2016 in the GOP held districts.

Then again, dems take the house if they just do 2.88% better than Hillary in every district.

How did you get that?

He's wrong.

[LimoLiberal]

Dems hit their lowest point on RCP generic ballot average since early 2017 -->

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/986677613816111104

[LimoLiberal]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 15-19, 1260 RV

D 42 (-1)
R 36 (+3)

"DEMS ARE DOOMED!"

Headlines incoming...

They're not doomed, but they're at their lowest point (on the generic ballot) since more than a year ago.

[LimoLiberal]

Morning Consult: April 19-23, 1993 RV

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000162-f99c-d817-a7f2-f99cd7940001

Democrat: 44 (+1)
Republican: 35 (-1)

Great Poll! Blue Wave is Alive!

[LimoLiberal]

Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

Sad Poll. Blue Wave is Dead.

[LimoLiberal]

Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

Sad Poll. Blue Wave is Dead.

LOL

joke
jōk/Submit
noun
1.
a thing that someone says to cause amusement or laughter, especially a story with a funny punchline.
"she was in a mood to tell jokes"
synonyms:   funny story, jest, witticism, quip; More

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac: Generic ballot D+8.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2538

Previous Q poll was D+3.

5 point surge a month means the Dems will win in November by 43 points.
#BlueTsunamiStrikesBack

+660 seats in the House. BIG

And that's before likely voter models are used! With the enthusiasm gap it could be +750 seats!

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov

Democrats - 42 (-1)
Republicans - 39 (+1)

[LimoLiberal]

NY-22: Zogby finds Brindisi leading incumbent Tenney

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi (D) - 47
Tenney (R) - 40

When undecideds are pushed it's 55-45.

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Tenney won by 5 points (46-41) here in 2016 as the district went for Trump 55-39.

[LimoLiberal]

PEW Poll (last poll was in mid January)

Democrats - 48 (-5)
Republicans - 43 (+4)

Pew is considered a high-quality poll. Nonpartisan analysts. estimate Democrats would need a margin of 7-9 points to retake the House in November, and this poll shows they are currently falling short.

Their lowest point in any Pew Generic Ballot poll since July of 2014 (they didn't poll the 2016 election).


http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/05/03134750/05-03-18-political-topline-for-release.pdf

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal got Alabama wrong by almost 30, AZ-08 wrong by 10, Virginia-gov wrong by 10

Do I conduct the Pew poll? How do my wrong predictions affect the results of a poll?

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Quinnipiac consistently has the highest pro-Dem house effect of any poll in the post-Trump era. Considering their previous polls, D+8 isn't a good result at all for Democrats (I think 538 adjusted it down to D+5).