2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Also remember when the generic ballot was only like D+6 but then dems got a 16 point swing in AZ-08 despite 47% of voters being republican?

Remember when the generic ballot was D+6 and in the 13 state legislative special elections in the past two weeks the Democrats have had a +0.5 swing on average?

That's not to say that the blue wave is dead, but the point is that single statistics (like the house special elections this year) shouldn't be treated as major evidence without backup from other statistics.  Trump's approval is its highest since May 2017. Democrats still lead by a substantial margin on the generic ballot, but it's nowhere near as large as it was in late 2017. By some degree, the political environment is getting better for Republicans. That doesn't mean they'll do good, but their chances of holding the house and senate increase every time Trump's approval ticks up a point which it has done recently.

[LimoLiberal]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Remember when Qunnipiac's Generic Ballot had dem's lead drop to +3 and everyone freaked out but their next poll 2 weeks later had it at +8? I'm not to worried about large movement in the generic ballot because they've mostly proven to be noise.

Also remember when the generic ballot was only like D+6 but then dems got a 16 point swing in AZ-08 despite 47% of voters being republican?

Remember when the generic ballot was D+6 and in the 13 state legislative special elections in the past two weeks the Democrats have had a +0.5 swing on average?

That's not to say that the blue wave is dead, but the point is that single statistics (like the house special elections this year) shouldn't be treated as major evidence without backup from other statistics.  Trump's approval is its highest since May 2017. Democrats still lead by a substantial margin on the generic ballot, but it's nowhere near as large as it was in late 2017. By some degree, the political environment is getting better for Republicans. That doesn't mean they'll do good, but their chances of holding the house and senate increase every time Trump's approval ticks up a point which it has done recently.

The average of all special elections has been a swing of at least D+10. That's a lot better than just looking at 13 special elections (and ignoring the 14th which was a 16 point swing when voters were 47% republican). Obviously recent statistics generally are better... but 13 elections, most of which were in NY and FL, is obviously a dumb sample size. But you love cherrypicking to prove your narrative.

But keep saying ignorant garbage and then wondering why people on this forum aren't a fan of you, and keep digging your heels. And keep bragging about getting elections wrong by only 7% LOL.

You need to stop embarrassing yourself, kiddo.

That's the point... anybody can take any statistic and manipulate it to drive any narrative they want. It's important to look at all the statistics, not just the ones that show the best for your team and party. Special elections are great for Democrats on balance, but if someone looked at just the past two weeks they could create the narrative "blue wave is dead" (e.g. Scott Presler).

I'm looking at the most important # for the opposition party in midterms - the popularity of the president. And it's at its highest point in a year. Of course, it's still low relative to the historical average for presidents. But it suggests that things are getting better for the President's party. How much better? Will he continue going up? Will he fall back down again? We don't know.

[LimoLiberal]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Great poll for Democrats!

I don't want Morganelli to win the primary, but at the same time I do want him to win because I think his immigration views actually do line up well with the composition of this district (Lou Barletta was very popular in NE PA even in the Obama years because of this) and he would make this an instant pickup

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

[LimoLiberal]

Updated my polling spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1lEBtD0DPaliUWSZQclSl_HqTZAO_bRrxjDRZPPrAKgM/edit#gid=0

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html

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Democrats - 47
Republicans - 44

From D+16 to D+6 to D+3 in a few short months.

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[LimoLiberal]

BLUE WAVE IS DEAD EVEN THOUGH IT'S AN OUTLIER!!

Lol you're hackish enough to actually make an entire thread for this.

There's a ton of issue polling in there about immigration, guns, support for the president, etc. so I thought it deserved its own thread.

[LimoLiberal]

So CNN released a poll.., (Outlier)

Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 44%

44% is around the level of support I expect the GOP to win on election day. There's a heavy amount of undecideds, and Cook has an article explaining why the Dem margin isn't sky high: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead

How can you in good faith call it an outlier? Another high-quality poll (PEW) has D+5, Reuters/Ipsos has D+4, D+3 is perfectly plausible.

[LimoLiberal]

LMAO, PPP thread designed to quell Democratic fears... hauntingly familiar

https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=from%3Appppolls%20since%3A2016-11-02%20until%3A2016-11-08&src=typd&lang=en


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794510024596918272



B*tch, I got receipts.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

[LimoLiberal]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

Somehow I did a "trolly song and dance" without actually trolling? Cause all I did was post a significant poll, just like PittsburghSteel did with this thread a week ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=291035.0
That thread was arguably more inexcusable, considering Morning Consult is a pretty unreliable weekly tracking poll while CNN is far more high quality. However, I won't make threads for individual polls in the future.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow -->
Dems in big trouble, if true. (it's GOP internal polling so probably not entirely accurate)
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/994574354032877568

[LimoLiberal]

These headlines are doozies...

Nate Silver is probably laughing his ass off

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opinions/gop-wins-against-democrats-blue-wave-stewart-opinion/index.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/9/inside-the-beltway-a-red-wave-threatens-the-blue-w/

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/blue-wave-becomes-blue-puddle/

I'm totally ok with this. The more "red wave is imminent stories" the less motivated Trump supporters are to vote. Let them think everything is fine and the GOP is gonna gain 50 seats.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/994975779774783488

[LimoLiberal]

Wow.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/994977649570304000

[LimoLiberal]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

[LimoLiberal]

Cook Political Reporter implies that the political environment is shifting fast.

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/996355701474840576

[LimoLiberal]

F**k off Limo seriously this bit is getting really obnoxious

If Amy E Walter had tweeted "Democrats set for massive wave. Trump is worst president of all time." nobody would care if I posted that. Walter isn't some Republican hack. She's experienced, and I trust her insight especially because she has been relatively bullish on prospects of a Democratic wave recently.

[LimoLiberal]

CA-45 (PPP): Porter 46% - Walters 43%

Toss Up

That's a nice poll for Democrats.

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

[LimoLiberal]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OH12Results_ECU.pdf

OH-12 Special Election - PPP for Ends Citizens United (D)

Troy Balderson (R) - 45
Danny O'Connor (D) - 43

Trump won this district 53-42.

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

Why use good polls? Why not just use Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Gravis, Zogby, colleges, internals, etc. to "prove" the blue wave is dead?

Ok. High quality CNN Poll shows D+3. High quality Pew Poll shows D+5.

[LimoLiberal]

NRCC NE-02 poll

Bacon (R) - 48
Ashford (D) - 46

Bacon (R) - 50
Eastman (D) - 40

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-power-briefing/2018/05/16/senate-intel-committee-russia-investigation-270842

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[LimoLiberal]

Dem lead in RCP generic ballot below 5 points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[LimoLiberal]

^^ Fixed