Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Jan. 9-14, 1190 adults (change from Nov.)

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 59 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 18-22, 1996 RV (1-week change)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3) - All-time high disapproval for Trump in this poll

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Economist/YouGov weekly survey, Jan. 20-22, 1500 adults including 1257 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

RV:

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just for laughs...

New York State only: Quinnipiac, Jan. 16-21, 929 RV (change from July)

Approve 29 (-7)
Disapprove 67 (+10)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just for laughs...

New York State only: Quinnipiac, Jan. 16-21, 929 RV (change from July)

Approve 29 (-7)
Disapprove 67 (+10)

Holy hell... it's -19 in upstate.

[Dr. Arch]

Just for laughs...

New York State only: Quinnipiac, Jan. 16-21, 929 RV (change from July)

Approve 29 (-7)
Disapprove 67 (+10)

Holy hell... it's -19 in upstate.

It should be similar in Wisconsin, which is very bad news bears for Trump.

[Tintrlvr]

Was coming to comment the same thing. The Upstate numbers are rough, not a good sign at all for Trump in Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin/ME-02.

[pbrower2a]

Just for laughs...

New York State only: Quinnipiac, Jan. 16-21, 929 RV (change from July)

Approve 29 (-7)
Disapprove 67 (+10)

Quinnipiac is a serious poster. But this is New York State, where Donald Trump is better known than anywhere else, and for all that, one state in which he has been least successful in winning voters over. I suspect that Q is calibrating itself for other statewide polls, as of Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and even Texas.

I doubt that anyone ever expected President Trump to get a flattering poll from New York. To put it as bluntly as possible, Donald Trump is the New Yorker that one loves to hate, and I don't mean Yankees fans at Fenway Park. (Heck, Detroit Tigers fans can be similarly objectionable when the Tigers have good years).

It may be a harsh judgment upon his supporters, but the only demographics that I can see supporting Donald Trump in the end are the gullible and unfeeling. There are people who identify with such fictional villains as Darth Vader, J R Ewing, the Wicked Witch of the West, and the shark from Jaws or real-life villains like mobsters and tyrants. 

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white) 1
44-49% and negative 20
40-43% 11
under 40%  67

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.


Not showing districts of Maine and Nebraska? Those two states rarely get polled except by Morning Consult, and even more rarely do I see polling numbers segregated by district. I can change the map to adjust.

41 more states, and 437 electoral votes to go!

[Zaybay]

Whats key in that Q poll are the upstate numbers, -19. These do make sense in the grand scheme of things, this was an area Obama did better in 2012 than in 2008, and its notorious for being very swingy. While not in the geographic area, Upstate NY resembles Parts of New England and the Rust Belt, Democratic in recent memory, declining, rural, and "white working class". And, just like in these other regions, Trump is seeing his approval ratings drop massively. Not good news for him, though this -19 could be the production of the shutdown.

[ProudModerate2]

At fivethirtyeight both Trumps approval and disapproval are at their worst for Trump since last january. We are approaching 2017 territory.

[Brittain33]

non-Evangelical WWC is what sets upstate New York apart from other parts of the Trumpiverse. Not sure how non-Evangelical those other states’ “upstages” are although obviously they’re not Tennessee.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1088183439139004425

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Oof.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the AP poll.  Jan. 16-20, 1062 adults (1-month change)

Approve 34 (-8)
Disapprove 65 (+9)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 53 (+11)

AP has always had poor numbers for Trump, but that change from last month is a 'wow'.

[Dr. Arch]

Here's the AP poll.  Jan. 16-20, 1062 adults (1-month change)

Approve 34 (-8)
Disapprove 65 (+9)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 53 (+11)

AP has always had poor numbers for Trump, but that change from last month is a 'wow'.

17 point shift

[Crumpets]

Here's the AP poll.  Jan. 16-20, 1062 adults (1-month change)

Approve 34 (-8)
Disapprove 65 (+9)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 53 (+11)

AP has always had poor numbers for Trump, but that change from last month is a 'wow'.

"Strongly disapprove" is only one point below the combined total percentage of people to vote for all non-Trump candidates in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Jan. 20-22, 1008 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fox News, Jan. 20-22, 1008 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

54% blame Trump and GOP for the shutdown. Only 34% say the Democrats.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Like ooff

[Crumpets]

Like ooff

Cue Don Jr. retweeting this with the "Dis" covered over at the top and the banner cropped out.

[pbrower2a]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

[Badger]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Considering the number of individuals who will vote for Trump despite "disapproving" of him, those numbers would probably be sufficient for him to narrowly carry the state again.

[Comrade Funk]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Considering the number of individuals who will vote for Trump despite "disapproving" of him, those numbers would probably be sufficient for him to narrowly carry the state again.

Florida gonna Florida

[pbrower2a]

I expect Florida to be close. The poll is by Mason-Dixon, which is not a favored pollster.

Florida as a state polled is a surprise to me because it has no gubernatorial or senatorial seats up until 2022.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another key state:

Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49

Net: Trump 39, someone else 57

Results