Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Holmes]

I was talking to my boyfriend about how dumb some of the riding names in Quebec were, and I used Timmins-James Bay being renamed "Shania Twain" to illustrate it. I still maintain that it would probably be the worst. "The honourable member from Shania Twain"...

but i assume your talking about Pierre Fitch, hes a gay porn star

... who's as dumb as a bag of nails.

[Hatman 🍁]

As a side project, I'm going to keep expanding my list of celebrity riding names on the last page. Something fun to do whilst bored.

[DL]

If we can name ridings after Maurice Richard and Wayne Gretzky, why not rename Saskatoon-Blackstrap - "Gordie Howe"

[DL]

Maybe in honour of The Beachcombers, we could rename West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Highway "Bruno Gerussi"

[Wilfred Day]

Centre-du-Québec with 234,163 residents deserves 2.31 ridings. Instead, the Commission keeps Drummond (fine) but leaves the rest split between Richmond – Arthabaska, Lotbinière—Mégantic and Bas-Richelieu - Nicolet – Bécancour (renamed Paul-Comtois).

Worst is the riding I call Long-River-Bank: Bas-Richelieu - Nicolet – Bécancour includes everything from the Montreal exurb of Sorel to the city of Bécancour (part of the Trois-Rivières metropolitan area), 50,900 residents of Montérégie Region and 45,203 residents of Centre-du-Québec Region.

Meanwhile the rest of the Centre-du-Québec Region – the MRCs of Arthabaska and L'Érable – have 92,603 residents, 8.6% below quotient, a reasonable rural riding. That would have left Nicolet-Yamaska and Bécancour to combine with the Mauricie to make 306,482 people, 3.02 quotients. Wonderful math, wonderful regional geography. Not interested. Leave them alone. Too busy creating the new riding of Lignery named for a military officer who arrived in Canada in 1687, and re-naming Long-River-Bank for the former MP for Nicolet—Yamaska Paul-Comtois.

But as we will see, the dominos from this decision stretch all the way to the Gaspé.

Next door, Sherbrooke’s metropolitan area has 201,890 people, 1.993 quotients, perfect for two ridings. But no, 3,402 of them are in Richmond—Arthabaska which stretches from Sherbrooke’s suburbs 95 km to its centre in Victoriaville, and includes 34,660 residents of Estrie Region.  Meanwhile, we still have Mégantic - L'Érable (which becomes Lotbinière—Mégantic) combining 32,586 residents of the Centre-du-Québec Region with 72,737 residents of the Chaudière – Appalaches Region.

This in turn messes up Chaudière – Appalaches which has 410,829 residents, 4.055 quotients, perfect for four ridings. But no. So they have to dump 41,394 of them into Elzéar-Bernier. The 294,056 residents of Bas-Saint-Laurent—Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine, with 2.90 quotients, would have made three decent-sized ridings. But no, with an extra 41,394 to accommodate, all three are oversized: 11.0% over quotient, 10.3% over, and 9.8% over.   

[Hatman 🍁]

The definitely should have respected regional boundaries more. They're very important in Quebec.

[Hash]

Amends to the constituencies-named-after-celebrities list:

Kingston and the Islands or Ottawa-Vanier: Bryan-Adams
Ottawa-Vanier: Vanessa-Morgan

[Hatman 🍁]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I had never heard of her, but I looked her up, and I assume she was the one who was in your signature? Looks like she went to your high school when you were going. So, she was a bully?

As I mentioned, Tom Green also lived in Ottawa-Vanier (Beacon Hill), but he was born in Pembroke, so I gave him that riding. Matthew Perry (from Friends) went to Rockcliffe Park PS, so he may have also lived in the riding.

[DL]

There must be a ton of famous people from Toronto-Centre or Trinity-Spadina too!

[Hatman 🍁]

There must be a ton of famous people from Toronto-Centre or Trinity-Spadina too!

Famous people who live there currently, but not so much who grew up there. Looks like most of the famous people from Toronto grew up in the suburbs.

[DL]

Surely some famous authors grew up in Rosedale...or maybe since u of T is in Trinity-Spadina, we could name the riding Marshall McLuhan or Northrup Frye?

[Wilfred Day]

The definitely should have respected regional boundaries more. They're very important in Quebec.

They did so once, when they made the regional boundary the new boundary between Papineau (in Hautes-Laurentides--Pontiac) and Argentueil (in La Chute). And they got rid of the riding straddling the north limit of Laval. And they put Côte-Nord into a single riding. But that's it.

They ignored the regional boundaries between Montérégie and Estrie, Montérégie and Centre-du-Québec, Estrie and Centre-du-Québec, Estrie and Chaudière - Appalaches, Centre-du-Québec and Chaudière - Appalaches, Chaudière - Appalaches and Bas-Saint-Laurent, Bas-Saint-Laurent and Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Lanaudière and Mauricie, Mauricie and Capitale-Nationale (Quebec City), and Capitale-Nationale and Saguenay - Lac-Saint-Jean.

Note that Côte-Nord, with 94,766 people, they made a riding. But Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine, with 94,079 people, they chopped up and put most of it into a riding with 111,761 people.
 

[Wilfred Day]

Montreal has one new riding. Which one is Montreal's "new" riding?  Is George-Étienne-Cartier the "new" riding? Or is it Ville-Marie, parts of Jeanne-Le Ber, Laurier--Sainte-Marie, and Westmount--Ville Marie. But Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine has been so chopped up I don't know where it went. Isn't Wilder-Penfield the successor to Westmount? But is Lachine--LaSalle more from LaSalle--Émard? Is Verdun more from Jeanne-Le Ber?

[Poirot]

They did respect the boundary between Outaouais and Laurentides to the south but had to break it to the north. But they had no choice since Outaouais doesn't have the numbers to have fully 4 ridings.

I read comments about Centre-du-Québec today. The MP for Arthabaska is not happy about losing some villages from MRC Arthabaska to Paul-Comtois riding (Nicolet Becancour). Some villages territories are in two ridings because they used highway 20 has the boundary.

In the Cap de la Madeleine area of Trois-Rivières, three ridings touch there. So in that area you can be in Trois-Rivières, or Shawinigane or Anne-Hébert which stresses to the limit of Quebec city.

Crossing the Saint-Lawrence to make a riding with the Mauricie is probably not in the solution for the commission. I think there is this rule about crossing the river (physical barrier). The bridge is close to Trois-Rivières so maybe Nicolet Bécancour would have to join with Trois-Rivières Ouest and parts of Maskinongé. It could be interesting to see what it would look like and what people think about it or it is unthinkable.    

[MaxQue]

They did respect the boundary between Outaouais and Laurentides to the south but had to break it to the north. But they had no choice since Outaouais doesn't have the numbers to have fully 4 ridings.

That isn't an issue. The border isn't clear at all on the ground in the northern Laurentides.

[Smid]

Montreal has one new riding. Which one is Montreal's "new" riding?  Is George-Étienne-Cartier the "new" riding? Or is it Ville-Marie, parts of Jeanne-Le Ber, Laurier--Sainte-Marie, and Westmount--Ville Marie. But Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine has been so chopped up I don't know where it went. Isn't Wilder-Penfield the successor to Westmount? But is Lachine--LaSalle more from LaSalle--Émard? Is Verdun more from Jeanne-Le Ber?

I think a case could also be made for Maurice-Richard, just to the South of Bourassa, since the other seats that could be considered new are in areas where other seats have been abolished - so they're more of radically altered boundaries and changed names (of Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie, Notre Dame de Grace-Lachine, Jean Le Ber, LaSalle-Emard, Outremont, and Laurier-Sainte Marie, you have seven seats... those seven seats now roughly correspond to John-Peters-Humphrey, Lachine-Lasalle, Outremont, Verdun, Wilder-Penfield, Ville Marie and Plateau-Mile End - still seven seats, with a couple of bits shaved off, and then radically redrawn). It's difficult to say precisely which of the new seats replaces which of the old (except in some obvious cases, such as Outremont and Verdun, and Mont Royal -> JPH), but none-the-less, it's seven seats becoming seven seats.

[Wilfred Day]

The bridge is close to Trois-Rivières so maybe Nicolet Bécancour would have to join with Trois-Rivières Ouest and parts of Maskinongé. It could be interesting to see what it would look like and what people think about it or it is unthinkable.

Since you’re interested, here’s what it would look like.

Trois-Rivières has 131,338 people and must be divided, but not into three ridings (no need to put part of it in Shawinigane).

TROIS-RIVIÈRES—LES CHENAUX: Trois-Rivières Est 82,427, and Regional County Municipality of Les Chenaux 17,865, total 100,292 (1.0% below quotient).

TROIS-RIVIÈRES—BÉCANCOUR—NICOLET: Trois-Rivières Ouest 48,911; Saint-Étienne-des-Grès (which used to be in Francheville Regional County Municipality), Yamachiche, Saint-Barnabé and Saint-Sévère 8,501; and Bécancour—Nicolet 42,879; total 100,291 (1.0% below quotient)

SHAWINIGAN—MASKINONGÉ—MÉKINAC—LA TUQUE (not including Saint-Étienne-des-Grès, Yamachiche, Saint-Barnabé and Saint-Sévère) 105,899 (4.5% over).

(Did you know Jean Chrétien's grandfather François Chrétien was Mayor of Saint-Étienne-des-Grès in 1907-1910? Maybe they will name a riding for him?)

[Wilfred Day]

Interesting proposals. I'm not a fan of your Ontario proposals (mostly because they contradict mine ).

Anyways, don't let my criticisms discourage you. I love seeing other people's proposals and debating them. You've done a lot of hard work, and I hope to see some more of them.

I hope my Mid-Eastern Ontario proposals don't contradict yours.

MID-EASTERN ONTARIO

The six existing districts between LEEDS—GRENVILLE and the Greater Toronto Area all have populations more than 10% above quotient: 17.8%, 17.7%, 12.5%, 11.8%, 10.6%, and 10.1%. And Mississippi Mills must be accommodated. This region has a population of 724,690, with 6.81 electoral quotients, making seven electoral districts with populations an average of 2.66 per cent below quotient. The new electoral district reflects growth in Kingston, Peterborough, Belleville and throughout the region.

As a result of growth in Kingston, its existing electoral district is now 17.7 percent above quotient. The County of Frontenac (including Kingston) and the growing County of Lanark have together a population of 215,405, enough for two electoral districts. LANARK—FRONTENAC would include Lanark’s 65,667 residents (including Mississippi Mills), and about 39,087 in Frontenac including 5,576 residents of the rural parts of the City of Kingston and about 9,000 residents of its urban area (perhaps in the north-west corner west of Sydenham Road in the vicinity of Sydenham, center for the Township of South Frontenac.) It will have a total of about 104,754 residents, 1.51 percent below quotient; 74 per cent of it is part of the present Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox & Addington. KINGSTON AND THE ISLANDS would lose about 14,576 residents, leaving it with a population of about 110,651 (including Frontenac Islands), 4.04 per cent above quotient.

The growing County of Lennox & Addington centred on Napanee, presently joined with Lanark and Frontenac, has 41,824 residents. The growing County of Hastings and the County of Prince Edward have 160,192, including the growing urban area of Belleville—Quinte West. Together these counties have a population of 202,016, enough for two electoral districts an average of 5.03 percent below quotient. BELLEVILLE—QUINTE WEST would include Stirling-Rawdon and would have a population of 97,518, 8.31 percent below quotient; 56 per cent of this district is part of the present Prince Edward—Hastings. LENNOX & ADDINGTON—HASTINGS—PRINCE EDWARD would have a population of 104,498, 1.75 per cent below quotient; 60 per cent of this district is part of the present Prince Edward—Hastings.

The four-county region of Peterborough, Northumberland, Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton has a population of 307,299, not counting Brock Township which is part of Durham Region in the GTA. This is a single region for hospital and judicial purposes and many others, served by CHEX-TV. This 307,299 is enough for three electoral districts with an average of 3.69 percent below quotient. The growing electoral district of PETERBOROUGH will lose two townships and have a population of 110,374, 3.77% above quotient, including the growing City of Peterborough and Smith—Ennismore—Lakefield, Douro—Dummer and Otonabee—South Monaghan. NORTHUMBERLAND—PETERBOROUGH adds Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan, Asphodel-Norwood and Havelock-Belmont-Methuen to the growing Northumberland County, with a total population of 99,291, 6.68 per cent below quotient. These reflect community of interest: Trent Hills in Northumberland forms a single ward with Asphodel-Norwood and Havelock-Belmont-Methuen in electing a school trustee to the Kawartha-Pine Ridge District School Board which covers both Peterborough and Northumberland. Cavan and Millbrook were always in the same electoral district as adjacent Port Hope until 1987, and have never been in the electoral district of Peterborough. KAWARTHA LAKES—HALIBURTON has a population of 97,634, 8.2 per cent below quotient, unchanged except that Brock Township returns to Durham Region and Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan shifts to NORTHUMBERLAND--PETERBOROUGH. The two municipalities of north Peterborough County (which include some of the Kawartha Lakes) will remain in KAWARTHA LAKES—HALIBURTON as they have been since 1966.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotler and Dion to challenge the boundaries.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/07/19/grit-mps-dion-cotler-plan-to-challenge-%E2%80%98arbitrary%E2%80%99-riding-boundary-changes/31540

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting proposals. I'm not a fan of your Ontario proposals (mostly because they contradict mine ).

Anyways, don't let my criticisms discourage you. I love seeing other people's proposals and debating them. You've done a lot of hard work, and I hope to see some more of them.

I hope my Mid-Eastern Ontario proposals don't contradict yours.

MID-EASTERN ONTARIO

The six existing districts between LEEDS—GRENVILLE and the Greater Toronto Area all have populations more than 10% above quotient: 17.8%, 17.7%, 12.5%, 11.8%, 10.6%, and 10.1%. And Mississippi Mills must be accommodated. This region has a population of 724,690, with 6.81 electoral quotients, making seven electoral districts with populations an average of 2.66 per cent below quotient. The new electoral district reflects growth in Kingston, Peterborough, Belleville and throughout the region.

As a result of growth in Kingston, its existing electoral district is now 17.7 percent above quotient. The County of Frontenac (including Kingston) and the growing County of Lanark have together a population of 215,405, enough for two electoral districts. LANARK—FRONTENAC would include Lanark’s 65,667 residents (including Mississippi Mills), and about 39,087 in Frontenac including 5,576 residents of the rural parts of the City of Kingston and about 9,000 residents of its urban area (perhaps in the north-west corner west of Sydenham Road in the vicinity of Sydenham, center for the Township of South Frontenac.) It will have a total of about 104,754 residents, 1.51 percent below quotient; 74 per cent of it is part of the present Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox & Addington. KINGSTON AND THE ISLANDS would lose about 14,576 residents, leaving it with a population of about 110,651 (including Frontenac Islands), 4.04 per cent above quotient.

The growing County of Lennox & Addington centred on Napanee, presently joined with Lanark and Frontenac, has 41,824 residents. The growing County of Hastings and the County of Prince Edward have 160,192, including the growing urban area of Belleville—Quinte West. Together these counties have a population of 202,016, enough for two electoral districts an average of 5.03 percent below quotient. BELLEVILLE—QUINTE WEST would include Stirling-Rawdon and would have a population of 97,518, 8.31 percent below quotient; 56 per cent of this district is part of the present Prince Edward—Hastings. LENNOX & ADDINGTON—HASTINGS—PRINCE EDWARD would have a population of 104,498, 1.75 per cent below quotient; 60 per cent of this district is part of the present Prince Edward—Hastings.

The four-county region of Peterborough, Northumberland, Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton has a population of 307,299, not counting Brock Township which is part of Durham Region in the GTA. This is a single region for hospital and judicial purposes and many others, served by CHEX-TV. This 307,299 is enough for three electoral districts with an average of 3.69 percent below quotient. The growing electoral district of PETERBOROUGH will lose two townships and have a population of 110,374, 3.77% above quotient, including the growing City of Peterborough and Smith—Ennismore—Lakefield, Douro—Dummer and Otonabee—South Monaghan. NORTHUMBERLAND—PETERBOROUGH adds Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan, Asphodel-Norwood and Havelock-Belmont-Methuen to the growing Northumberland County, with a total population of 99,291, 6.68 per cent below quotient. These reflect community of interest: Trent Hills in Northumberland forms a single ward with Asphodel-Norwood and Havelock-Belmont-Methuen in electing a school trustee to the Kawartha-Pine Ridge District School Board which covers both Peterborough and Northumberland. Cavan and Millbrook were always in the same electoral district as adjacent Port Hope until 1987, and have never been in the electoral district of Peterborough. KAWARTHA LAKES—HALIBURTON has a population of 97,634, 8.2 per cent below quotient, unchanged except that Brock Township returns to Durham Region and Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan shifts to NORTHUMBERLAND--PETERBOROUGH. The two municipalities of north Peterborough County (which include some of the Kawartha Lakes) will remain in KAWARTHA LAKES—HALIBURTON as they have been since 1966.

Well, you're from the area, so I'll defer to your proposals. Except, I would name the Belleville riding "Quinte" or at least Hastings South.

Cotler and Dion to challenge the boundaries.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/07/19/grit-mps-dion-cotler-plan-to-challenge-%E2%80%98arbitrary%E2%80%99-riding-boundary-changes/31540

So, why do you think the NDP hasn't said anything yet? Is it because a) we're too incompetent for this kind of thing (haven't heard the party do anything except for when we were working on it in Hyer's office, but now he's an independent), or is it (b) because it doesn't matter, because the NDP will reap up the rewards of any re-drawn map. Or is it (c) the Liberals (and the Tories) have been MPs longer, and feel more entitled to their ridings.

 

[RogueBeaver]

I have no idea.

[DL]

Cotler and Dion to challenge the boundaries.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/07/19/grit-mps-dion-cotler-plan-to-challenge-%E2%80%98arbitrary%E2%80%99-riding-boundary-changes/31540

So, why do you think the NDP hasn't said anything yet? Is it because a) we're too incompetent for this kind of thing (haven't heard the party do anything except for when we were working on it in Hyer's office, but now he's an independent), or is it (b) because it doesn't matter, because the NDP will reap up the rewards of any re-drawn map. Or is it (c) the Liberals (and the Tories) have been MPs longer, and feel more entitled to their ridings.

My theory (as far as Quebec is concerned) is as follows:

1. There are so many changes to so many ridings in Quebec that it will take a bit of time for the NDP (with 59 seats to protect) to assess what it all means and which proposed changes work in the NDP's favour and which ones don't.

2. Its difficult for the NDP to get a handle on the electoral geography in Quebec since support there is so vast and so recent...old-times like Cotler and Dion have run over and over again and know exactly where their pockets of support and opposition are...also they feel more tied to the geographic intergrity of their ridings since they have been there for so long. Most NDP MPs are just starting to set down roots their ridings in the first place. Also for the NDP - the more seats in Quebec, the merrier

3. What's the big rush?? Hearings won't happen until Fall - what's to be gained by individual NDP MPs freelancing and squawking about every little twist and turn of the boundaries? Isn't it better for the party to come up with a province-wide strategy and talking points for how to deal with redistribution?

[Holmes]

The NDP caucus under Mulcair has been pretty whipped and in line, so maybe it's that, but most likely it's one of the reasons already posted.

[lilTommy]

Interesting...
“The proposed changes seem to reflect a lack of awareness, if not disregard, for the riding’s history, its physical integrity and community identity,” Mr. Cotler
... But from what i can make of John-Peters-Humphrey, his argument is mute. Mont Royal is completely in this new riding, so is Cote-Saint-Luc and Hampstead, whats been added are portions of Dorval and Lachine and Montreal near the airport. Does Cotler have an issue with more working class areas being added? Does he take issue with Lachine being added which is majority french while all the others (MR,CsL,Dor) are all more English? This is still a English-west Island-affluent riding...
Dion has a better argument that communities that have been in ridings for ages will now be seperated but, i'm looking at the proposal and comparing it with a google map... and i just don't see it. It looks like Ahuntsic-Cartierville and Cartierville are now all in one riding (Georges-Etienne-Cartier), Sain-Laurent i think he might have a point in that it looks split. At any rate i think hes upset that hes going to have to choose between the two ridings, George-Etienne-Cartier would be the smart choice for him since it takes the best Liberal polls from Ahuntsic and Saint-Laurent--Cartierville.. maybe hes really attached to Saraguay?

At any rate, if Cotler is retiring, shut up then! Garneau is the one with the tough choice.. Ville-Marie is pretty strongly tailored for the NDP, so that leaves him Wildred-Penfield and i'd say thats going to be a battle.

Also, i agree... i think the NDP has stayed silent on all the propsals for probably a mixture of all three... and waiting to see how Sask/MAN and ON turn out before they start to say anything. I just don't think Dion & Cotlers arguments are valid... anyone from PQ agree with them?

[Linus Van Pelt]

Does Cotler have an issue with more working class areas being added?

While you're right that the changes are small, John-Peters-Humphrey is a bit less working-class and probably a bit more winnable for the Conservatives than the old Mount Royal. It loses the main section of Cote-des-Neiges, a low-income area with many English-speaking (Black Caribbean and South Asian) immigrants that stayed very Liberal in 2011, while gaining some generic suburbia by the airport that voted NDP and a few pretty well-off polls in that sort of transition zone between NDG and Westmount where all three federalist parties are competitive.