2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[ajc0918]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

[ajc0918]

Interesting article about FL-15. While this seat isn't on the competitive radar, the fact that it has multiple democratic candidates this early is promising. IIRC Dennis Ross ran unopposed in 2012 so even just having someone is better than Democrats have done in the past.

This seat swung heavily toward Trump (56-39) but Romney only won it 52-46. These are the types of seats that need to be challenged even if the prospect of winning is slim.

http://saintpetersblog.com/cd-15-hopeful-greg-pilkington-believes-2018-will-big-democrats-including/

[ajc0918]

The S.S. Trumptanic has hit an iceberg and, unfortunately, vulnerable republicans are in third class and will go down with the ship.

[ajc0918]

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will announce a challenge to Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/curbelo-draws-democratic-challenger-in-swing-florida-district/2332195

[ajc0918]

Charlie Crist raised $353K in the third quarter and now has $1.4M in cash on hand.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/247002-charlie-crist-adds-353k-q3-re-election-fund

[ajc0918]

Dems get top candidate in FL-16 to challenge Vern Buchanan. While this is a 54-43 Trump and 54-45 Romney district, it seems like a good candidate who has a high profile and could potentially self fund.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20171018/buchanan-draws-prominent-democratic-opponent

[ajc0918]

Realistically, what does the generic ballot need to be at for the Dems to take the House?

[ajc0918]

A solid recruit for a seat that usually only has a no-name candidate. I wouldn't expect it to be competitive given the swing this seat saw toward Trump but it's nice to see Bilirakis get a quality challenger.

Federal prosecutor steps up to challenge Gus Bilirakis (FL-12)

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http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/02/federal-prosecutor-steps-up-to-challenge-gus-bilirakis/

[ajc0918]

Are Dennis Ross and Vern Buchanan vulnerable? I assume they’re on the third tier of competitive Florida races for Democrats (First being Curbelo and the open seat, then Mast and Diaz-Balart), and DDHQ gives Dems a hair above 30% of winning them.

How are the Democratic candidates looking?

Not really although both races have stronger opponents than normal. David Shapiro, challenging Buchanan, has good name recognition but I haven't seen any fundraising numbers for him. Andrew Learned, challenging Ross, is the frontrunner Dem(I think?) in that race although I don't know much about him.

[ajc0918]

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http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/15/bill-nelson-raised-2-4-million-in-last-quarter-campaign-says/