Is the Republican South Starting to Crack?

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

NC is the only state in the south to move leftward while the country moved rightward. So if the country moves leftward, NC will move much more leftward then the Nation, Right?

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

NC is the only state in the south to move leftward while the country moved rightward. So if the country moves leftward, NC will move much more leftward then the Nation, Right?

Virginia was about +6% GOP in 2004 and +8% in 2000. NC was +11 GOP in 2004 and +13 in 2000. I never denied NC was moving left, but +11% more GOP and +8% or so in 2008 doesn't mean it will be a tossup/lean Democrat in 2012 unless it LEAPS left much faster than Virginia, and NC lacks a Fairfax county like area that is growing fast with tons of liberals. Wake County is growing, but it isn't as liberal and isn't as big.

I think NC has a decent chance of being in the toss up category by 2012.   Its not just Wake County and the rest of the Research Triangle that is moving left, but Buncombe (Asheville) Guilford (Greensboro) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) which has moved left.  Both Wake and Mecklenburg will be very close or beyond 1 million people by 2012.

Wake and Mecklenburg is almost at 1 million right now. Guilford is almost at a half of million right now.

[Josh/Devilman88]

No it's not yet, and like DWTL said, we'll have to wait until this election ends to see if the theory holds up.

Take NC for example. So technically Bush's margin of victory in NC went from 56.03% down to 56.02%. Part of the reason he didn't increase his performance there was because Edwards was on the ticket, and he probably influenced the ticket by a couple of points. Had he not been on the ticket, NC would've most likely been a 57-43 victory. But North Carolina is FAR from being a tossup-lean Dem state. In the last week of the 2004 election, polls showed Bush winning by 8-9 points when he ended up winning by 12.43%, ever so slightly less than his 12.83% margin of victory in 2000. North Carolina is the Republican New Jersey

VA is also another example where Bush was polling in mid-single digits (4-6%) but ended up winning nationally by 8.20%

FL is another one.


So until we have some concrete evidence on the NATIONAL level for presidential elections, you can't really assume the solid South is starting to crack.

And polls are showing that the South will still be solid GOP territory come November, despite a horrid atmosphere for the GOP. VA, while Democrats like to think it will be a  tossup, lean Dem state, has been solidly behind McCain by 2-12% with the one exception of a poll showing Obama up in early February during his peak. NC will not be Democrat this year, nor in 2012, baring a major landslide or a popular southern moderate (Mark Warner) running. I really wish Josh would quit making useless assertions that it is flipping this year and we are all wrong about it. I'm almost tempted to make a big deal over it and a big ass of myself when McCain carried it. But I tend to like Josh, so I probably won't.

I think Obama could carry NC yes, but do I really think it will happen no. Do I think it will be closer then what people and polls are saying yes.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

That is what I am trying to say. But no one listens to me.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

That is what I am trying to say. But no one listens to me.

Uh, because both of you are wrong? Virginia may be within three if it's a big Obama win, but in no way will NC be that close.

Sure, it could change if Obama's national margin is big enough, but not now.

Also, stop getting ahead of yourself getting excited about his reelection already.

What make you so sure that Obama can't come withn in 5% of McCain?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Actually Mississippi is close if not already a swing state.  Mississippi's 1st congressional district is now held by a democrat that makes half of mississppi democratic.  And if you look at the senatorial polls the challenging democrat is ahead by a heathy margin.  Mississippi may not vote for Obama in November, but the Republicans will definately have an uphill battle reclaiming Mississippi as a safe state.

Hehe, Mississippi Democratic Party isn't like the DNC, it is more a dixiecrat party down in Old Miss. The only southern state that will swing toward the Democrats this year is VA and NC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Actually Mississippi is close if not already a swing state.  Mississippi's 1st congressional district is now held by a democrat that makes half of mississppi democratic.  And if you look at the senatorial polls the challenging democrat is ahead by a heathy margin.  Mississippi may not vote for Obama in November, but the Republicans will definately have an uphill battle reclaiming Mississippi as a safe state.

That's absolutely ludicrous. As long as the GOP is getting 70% of the white vote in Mississippi, it won't be a swing state nationally anytime soon. The south is different in that there are a lot of blue dogs that are registered Democrats and may vote Dem in local elections, but never in national ones. See Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky...

That is what I was saying too. Again the only states that will move toward the Democrats are NC and VA. And the both will be in Play very soon.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well yes. But that's not because of the blue dogs, but more of the DC suburbs and Research Triangle and the northern transplants. Georgia and Florida are moving right despite growing as well. In 8 years, NC and VA will be in play, SC could be as well if the Charleston area keeps growing, but I doubt any of the deep south states will be in play for a long time.

I pretty much agree.  I think Virginia is closer to being in play for Democrats now.  But probably still out of reach.  2012 more likely, IF Democrats nominate a palatable candidate.  North Carolina will come around eventually.

I would think South Carolina and Georgia are going to STAY right.  I am not sure they can move much farther over.  I think Tennessee and Kentucky are just about done transitioning to solid R states and will remain so for the foreseeable future.  Florida is the one I can't quite figure.  I agree that it's moving right, but I am not sure what it is.  Is it that the conservative Cuban population is growing?  Aren't just as many northeastern liberals settling in Florida for retirement?  The seniors are dying off, that is probably a factor.  I know that the panhandle and central Florida are solid Republican.  I'm trying to figure out how Florida is different from, say, North Carolina.  Lots of northern transplants.  But one is slowly inching left and one is slowly moving right.

In FL you have older white Democrats moving down. In NC you have younger white/black Democrats moving down.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

Georgia, by all observations, is actually trending RIGHT. Outside of Atlanta, there really isn't anymore Democrat areas. North Carolina and Virginia will continue to move left, and South Carolina to a certain extent, as the Charleston area continues to attract a lot of young people who tend to be more liberal. The rest of the south will remain pretty solidly behind the GOP.

I'm not saying GA is trending left right now, but I do think in the next few election cycle we will see it start to trend left, but not that far left to flip the state in a president race. I see it because like NC is right now. Lean Republican in presidental races but toss-up to lean Democratic at the state level.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

Georgia, by all observations, is actually trending RIGHT. Outside of Atlanta, there really isn't anymore Democrat areas. North Carolina and Virginia will continue to move left, and South Carolina to a certain extent, as the Charleston area continues to attract a lot of young people who tend to be more liberal. The rest of the south will remain pretty solidly behind the GOP.

I'm not saying GA is trending left right now, but I do think in the next few election cycle we will see it start to trend left, but not that far left to flip the state in a president race. I see it because like NC is right now. Lean Republican in presidental races but toss-up to lean Democratic at the state level.

North Carolina has always beenDemocrat at the state level in almost forever. It didnt just trend that way. Even when the state was nationally strong Republican, it still had Democrats in charge statewide. I dont know much about Georgia local politics, so I can't comment on them.

I never said NC trend that way, I know NC has always been that way. I said that is how I think GA will become.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Somewhat. Just the More "Atlantic" States (Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida) are becoming swing states. The Gulf States (Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, etc.) are staying GOP.  But as they lose states in the south, they gain in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

Michigan : Obama +16%, democratic 2004-2008 trend
Wisconsin : Obama +13%, democratic 2004-2008 trend
Pennsylvania : Obama +10%

Actually, they have more chances to win Minnesota.

Actually, MI, WI and PA were trending Republican until this year. Obama was just the right kind of candidate for MI and WI.