Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Lechasseur]

I don't understand why Casado didn't resign tonight. 16.7% is a Titanic mode result. If he continues until the Municipal and EP election in May, who knows how low the PP results will be.

The guy's been in charge for a few months, that isn't a lot of time to fix a party like PP that's still recovering from scandals and everything.

Frankly I think had his opponent won the leadership election last year they would have done even worse, and maybe have finished behind C's and lost even more votes to Vox.

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

[Lechasseur]

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.

Does anyone really think that the moderate wing of PP who was probably more linked to Rajoy anyway would have stopped the bleeding of their support to parties to their right? That doesn't make much sense to me either.

[Lechasseur]

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.

Does anyone really think that the moderate wing of PP who was probably more linked to Rajoy anyway would have stopped the bleeding of their support to parties to their right? That doesn't make much sense to me either.

Saenz de Santamaria would not have put utter blockheads like the head of list for the Madrid Community in such prominent positions for a start. And then let's also remember that PSOE have swung leftwards in recent years under Sanchez's stewardship. THe only reason people are screaming "the center has won" is because of Casado's abandoning of the center, making Sanchez-led PSOE the candidate of normalcy.

Sure long term PP to C's transfers is to be expected but this was a car crash campaign from Casado. THe dude litterally sold himself on the same terms as Rivera in relation to peripheral nationalists as his selling point and all Rivera had to do is just produce a headline with "PP in pact with PNV" at the debate. Had the debate been more centred on economics and in particular pensions (which is what the PP centrists are very good at arguing) he could have presented Rajoy's record...which whilst I do not condone, is statistically at least more credible than PP's record on corruption, social issues and peripheral nationalisms.

Yeah, she may have been better on economics, which may have played out well in a normal election, but at any rate what I'm reading in the French language news is that the right did as badly as it did not because of swings to the left but because of massive turnout for the left and for regional nationalists in reaction to Vox, so under those circumstances I'm not convinced that those voters would have winged in favor of somebody who would probably have to go in coalition with C's and Vox anyway. More than anything I think that would have just pushed more solid right-wingers to C's and to Vox.

[Lechasseur]

Looks like deadlock again...

At least it looks like PP has improved a bit.

[Lechasseur]

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

The collapse of Cs and the decline of PSOE (over 4% down) might mean that this time it may not be true...
84,31% counted, CpM 38 votes more than PP

Who are CpM?

[Lechasseur]

The class voting patterns and the parties' (especially PP) attitudes towards religion and social issues in general got me thinking: is there any information about religiosity by class? Basically, I know why urban upper class votes for the right, but I'm curious if it's despite their conservatism on non-economic matters, or if it's connected to it ("right wing on everything").

At anyrate in France I'd say the UMC are more religious. I'd assume it's the same in Spain.