RFK Jr.'s five best states.

[Eraserhead]

What will they be?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Maine
Alaska

These two i'm pretty certain off because of independent tradition, ranked choice voting and the fact that Maine seems a very good fit.

For the remaining three, i'd guess states where the winner is basically already certain, and I suspect those states will be mostly in New England.

So, i would say

Massachussets
New York
Rhode Island

He probably also does well in states with many ancestral democrats mostly in the Appalachians like West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio and he might help Biden also in Pennsylvania. Other than that, maybe states like California, Arizona (Silicon Valley), states with an independent tradition like Minnesota, etc. . RFK jr. might be the reason why WV might not be Trump's best state but something like Wyoming again instead.

In states like MN, AK, ME he'll net hurt Biden, while in deep red states or PA, he'll net hurt Trump.

[xavier110]

I will need to see the ballot design/placement he gets in different states.

Just spitballing…

Alaska
Utah
Montana
Oregon
Maine

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I will need to see the ballot design/placement he gets in different states.

Just spitballing…

Alaska
Utah
Montana
Oregon
Maine

RFK jr. doesn't seem to be a good fit for Utah, don't see it. Yeah, sure the only reason why he could do well is because neither Trump or Biden are liked there at all. But RFK jr. seems a bad fit for Utah as well.

[wnwnwn]

RI, NY, AK, ID, MT

A mix of alineated moderate old school dem catholics, antivaxxers, syncretic indies and maybe alineated liberal zionists.

[xavier110]

I will need to see the ballot design/placement he gets in different states.

Just spitballing…

Alaska
Utah
Montana
Oregon
Maine

RFK jr. doesn't seem to be a good fit for Utah, don't see it. Yeah, sure the only reason why he could do well is because neither Trump or Biden are liked there at all. But RFK jr. seems a bad fit for Utah as well.

Almost 30% of all Utah voters chose a non-Clinton/Trump option in 2016, and the state ranked second for non-Trump/Biden votes in 2020. RFK will just benefit from being the de facto none of the above option, and there will be a lot of those voters in Utah. I don’t know why this pattern would suddenly be upended in 2024.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

AK, WV, ME, ID, and as a wildcard pick, MS.


He hurts Biden more in some NE states (with the exception of ME where I think most of his support will be rural, hurting Trump) and especially hurts in the deep south, while he hurts Trump pretty much everywhere else though to a small extent.

I still think his voters will be overwhelmingly low-info, low-education, and racially mixed.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I will need to see the ballot design/placement he gets in different states.

Just spitballing…

Alaska
Utah
Montana
Oregon
Maine

RFK jr. doesn't seem to be a good fit for Utah, don't see it. Yeah, sure the only reason why he could do well is because neither Trump or Biden are liked there at all. But RFK jr. seems a bad fit for Utah as well.

Almost 30% of all Utah voters chose a non-Clinton/Trump option in 2016, and the state ranked second for non-Trump/Biden votes in 2020. RFK will just benefit from being the de facto none of the above option, and there will be a lot of those voters in Utah. I don’t know why this pattern would suddenly be upended in 2024.

I guess it's possible but i have a feeling a lot of that third party share would be divided between other parties and independents, though admittably Utah isn't a good fit for West or Stein either, though they'll get their share in Salt Lake City alone.

I guess if it's the only five options than you're right but I also simultaneously think we're not getting back to 2016 levels of support for the main candidates in Utah, while we do in other states. 2016 was unique in that McMullin had a high profile independent campaign in Utah and that Trump didn't consolidate the republican vote yet in Utah.

I guess it depends on who else gets ballot access, but that also applies to other states, since states where the greens, libertarians or West fail to get ballot access will basically mean RFK jr. probably taps more into that vote if he's for instance the sole third party candidate on the ballot, he'll by definition tap into the "neither of the two candidates" vote.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

AK, WV, ME, ID, and as a wildcard pick, MS.


He hurts Biden more in some NE states (with the exception of ME where I think most of his support will be rural, hurting Trump) and especially hurts in the deep south, while he hurts Trump pretty much everywhere else though to a small extent.

I still think his voters will be overwhelmingly low-info, low-education, and racially mixed.

Too rosy for Biden.

And Idaho... yeah i don't see it, that state is also a very bad fit, and unlike Utah doesn't have the 2016 thing (or to a far less extent). Like it's basically guaranteed RFK jr. will do better in UT at the very least than in ID, even if i don't believe RFK jr. will do well in the great plain states at all, with perhaps the exception of Montana (?).

And I think he net hurts Biden in ME, but it doesn't matter anyways since ME has ranked choice voting (unless ppl don't bother ranking).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If RFK jr. in particular does well, he might have a chance of benefitting from RCV if he makes it into the top 2, like if Trump or Biden is eliminated before him since I assume the Biden voters would rank him in front of Trump and vice versa (if again assuming people bother ranking). That means if RFK jr. makes it into the final two he gets favourable vote transfers.

While very unlikely, it's not impossible to envision a scenario where Trump wins ME-2, Biden wins ME-1 but RFK jr. wins ME at large getting the two electoral votes if the hate towards Trump and Biden isn't enough to overcome the gap with these two in these two districts but enough to beat the leading contendor in ME at large, though that would require some increased polarization between the two districts and ppl effectively bothering to rank the candidates.

It's not that hard to also imagine RFK jr. doing better than Trump in both ME-1 and MA, esp. given that the Republicans are very weak in MA.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If RFK jr. in particular does well, he might have a chance of benefitting from RCV if he makes it into the top 2, like if Trump or Biden is eliminated before him since I assume the Biden voters would rank him in front of Trump and vice versa (if again assuming people bother ranking). That means if RFK jr. makes it into the final two he gets favourable vote transfers.

While very unlikely, it's not impossible to envision a scenario where Trump wins ME-2, Biden wins ME-1 but RFK jr. wins ME at large getting the two electoral votes if the hate towards Trump and Biden isn't enough to overcome the gap with these two in these two districts but enough to beat the leading contendor in ME at large, though that would require some increased polarization between the two districts and ppl effectively bothering to rank the candidates.

It's not that hard to also imagine RFK jr. doing better than Trump in both ME-1 and MA, esp. given that the Republicans are very weak in MA.

No way is RFK going to do that well.

Maine 1992 seems to be

ME-01: Clinton beats Bush by 8.11 points
ME-02: Clinton beats Perot by 4.55 points
ME-AL: Clinton beats Bush by 8.33 points

If Clinton's lead shrinks by 8.2 points with the relative positioning of Bush and Perot staying the same, then Bush wins ME-01, Perot wins ME-02, and Clinton wins ME-AL.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If RFK jr. in particular does well, he might have a chance of benefitting from RCV if he makes it into the top 2, like if Trump or Biden is eliminated before him since I assume the Biden voters would rank him in front of Trump and vice versa (if again assuming people bother ranking). That means if RFK jr. makes it into the final two he gets favourable vote transfers.

While very unlikely, it's not impossible to envision a scenario where Trump wins ME-2, Biden wins ME-1 but RFK jr. wins ME at large getting the two electoral votes if the hate towards Trump and Biden isn't enough to overcome the gap with these two in these two districts but enough to beat the leading contendor in ME at large, though that would require some increased polarization between the two districts and ppl effectively bothering to rank the candidates.

It's not that hard to also imagine RFK jr. doing better than Trump in both ME-1 and MA, esp. given that the Republicans are very weak in MA.

No way is RFK going to do that well.

Maine 1992 seems to be

ME-01: Clinton beats Bush by 8.11 points
ME-02: Clinton beats Perot by 4.55 points
ME-AL: Clinton beats Bush by 8.33 points

If Clinton's lead shrinks by 8.2 points with the relative positioning of Bush and Perot staying the same, then Bush wins ME-01, Perot wins ME-02, and Clinton wins ME-AL.

I don't think he'll do that well, but it's just an interesting theoretical possibility, but yeah for that to occur RFK jr. basically needs 100% strategical voting where everyone includes RFK in their ranked ballot, and RFK jr. probably ideally gets at least 20%, but preferrably +-30% of the vote, which i agree won't happen.

Though i still think, Maine is going to be his best state.

And the RFK factor in Maine might make Maine also harder to predict generally (with the RCV and with the split electoral votes by district). I think Maine will be hard to predict except for the 1st one safe for Biden and Maine itself probably going with Biden.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Alaska, Maine, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah.

[Cyrusman]

AK
AZ
ME
MT
NM

[Open Source Intelligence]

Maine
Alaska

I'll add Minnesota to those.

Looking at 1996, Perot's best states were Maine, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and North Dakota. In that vein, I think Mountain West states ex-Colorado he'd probably do well. It's Libertarians' best region in the country, they're smaller populations ex-Colorado so you don't need a lot of votes numerically to get a higher percentage, they've been friendlier to third parties, and the overall winner of those states is not in doubt.

[mjba257]

1) AK: RCV + the state's proclivity for 3rd parties; I think RFK could outright win here

2) ME: Also RCV

3) HI: His stance on environmental and indigenous rights will play well here. Plus backlash to Biden's lackluster response to the Maui wildfires

4) UT: Been discussed to death. Obvious reasons why I think RFK will do well here. Plus, it was the first state he got ballot access in

5) VT: Proximity to his home state in MA, lot of white lefty granola types who may be attracted to RFK's message. And the fact that the state isn't remotely competitive may make people feel "safe" to cast a protest vote

[John Dule]

Alaska, Maine, New Mexico, Utah, and Montana.

[FDB]

1) AK: RCV + the state's proclivity for 3rd parties; I think RFK could outright win here

Agreed. He has the highest net approval of any candidate and it's not even close.

[Skill and Chance]

Safe Western states that traditionally have high 3rd party voting + maybe Appalachia (so most likely to show up at the state level in KY/WV).

[RI]

I've gone through the Zogby polls and made an index based on RFK's favorables, his relative performance when replacing Trump/Biden, and the amount of voters undecided between Trump and Biden to construct an index of where RFK might perform best. The top ten states that come from this are:

1) Utah
2) Texas
3) Arkansas
4) Kentucky
5) Wyoming
6) Ohio
7) New Mexico
8) Maine
9) Mississippi
10) Nebraska

Alaska is actually in the bottom ten states, as is Idaho. I think what people may be missing is that RFK does not appeal to the same people who we usually think of as NeverTrumpers. While he does absorb some of these voters in places like Utah, he's first and foremost not a candidate for the educated suburbs or typical libertarians.

He's a candidate looked fondly on by the working class of all races, excepting those in fossil fuel-heavy states like WV and PA due to his environmentalism.

Here's the full map of my index:

[Open Source Intelligence]

I've gone through the Zogby polls and made an index based on RFK's favorables, his relative performance when replacing Trump/Biden, and the amount of voters undecided between Trump and Biden to construct an index of where RFK might perform best. The top ten states that come from this are:

1) Utah
2) Texas
3) Arkansas
4) Kentucky
5) Wyoming
6) Ohio
7) New Mexico
Maine
9) Mississippi
10) Nebraska

Alaska is actually in the bottom ten states, as is Idaho. I think what people may be missing is that RFK does not appeal to the same people who we usually think of as NeverTrumpers. While he does absorb some of these voters in places like Utah, he's first and foremost not a candidate for the educated suburbs or typical libertarians.

He's a candidate looked fondly on by the working class of all races, excepting those in fossil fuel-heavy states like WV and PA due to his environmentalism.

Here's the full map of my index:

Unless you're talking Dixiecrats, we have more than a hundred years' worth of evidence that the South supports non-duopoly candidates the least of all areas in the country, so 3, 4, and 9 I don't see at all.