October Elections Tracker (All elections)

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

October Elections Tracker (All Elections)

As always, I will be tracking the election via maps and a very large spreadsheet (complete with crosstabs). Eight elections are occurring simultaneously: President, House, Chamber, Southern Governor, Assembly, Lincoln Governor, Lincoln Senate, and Fremont Senate, so I will be rather busy this weekend. The spreadsheet will almost always be more up-to-date than the maps, so check that first for the latest results.

Last vote counted (sheet): Siren
Last vote counted (map): Siren

Invalid votes: wxtransit (Federal, regd too late),
Greedo (Federal, deleted his post),
CMB222 (Federal, less than 10 posts),
BigVic (Lincoln, not valid federally),
New Canadaland (Federal, less than 10 posts),
anty1691 (Fremont, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts),
vern (Lincoln, moved regions too late),
bore (Lincoln, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts),
Tirnam (Fremont, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts)
Talleyrand (Lincoln, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts)
JoMCaR (Federal, less than 10 posts)
Admiral President (Assembly, wrong format)
Vosem (Assembly, wrong format)
drewmike87 (Lincoln, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts)

SPREADSHEET

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1VZogYQeocAMj9KwqmVC_2l_3-4prGySNustUZ5iubCg

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Up to date.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Spreadsheet is now fully up to date. Maps will not be updated for at least another ~3 hours because I have class.

In the presidential election, fhtagn has a narrow majority, with 17 votes to Truman's 10, Lumine's 4, and LLR's 2. On the final ballot, fhtagn leads by a larger margin (20 to 11).

The House vote is slightly closer, with 17 votes for federalist candidates, 13 for labor, 1 for independents, and 1 write-in. The quota (using the droop method) is 4.

The Senate race is currently a landslide for Siren. The Lincoln gubernatorial race is also a landslide for lok (so far).

R2D2 leads the senate race 5-2.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Maps are (mostly) updated!

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Only on Atlas would the major center-left party be leading in Alaska and trailing in California.

Interestingly, California has voted Federalist in every presidential election since the reset, but has voted Labor in the December 2016, February 2017 and August 2017 house elections.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Maps/spreadsheet have been updated.

Fhtagn has a near majority in the presidential race, with 50% of the vote. Truman has 26% and Lumine has 19%.

The Federalists have 60% in the House Popular Vote, and four of their five candidates are at or above the quota (compared to one for Labor).

The Lincoln Senate race has narrowed to a margin of two votes.

Lincoln Assembly votes are being funneled through Blair and ReaganClinton, with very few going to the two independent candidates.

Peebs's write-in of Liam (who should have been on the ballot) raises the number of candidates in the Southern Chamber election to 7, which means that all candidates will be elected (except Liam, but he hasn't posted in months anyway).

In Fremont, Siren retains her senate seat.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Peebs's write-in of Liam (who should have been on the ballot) raises the number of candidates in the Southern Chamber election to 7, which means that all candidates will be elected (except Liam, but he hasn't posted in months anyway).

Was it confirmed by a reliable source that all southern chamber candidates would be elected?

Actually, this is open to interpretation.

From one perspective, Peebs writing in Liam should not have an effect, since write-in candidates need to publicly accept write-ins. Liam has not posted since late July (iirc).

From another perspective, Liam should have been on the ballot anyway, and is not technically a write-in candidate, since he declared candidacy several months ago. This would make the number of candidates 8, and thus 7 people would be elected (most people didn't know Liam was running anyway and so it is assumed that the other 7 candidates would be elected).

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Am I blue and Senator R2D2 red in the Lincoln Senator map? We’re both independents, and the key doesn’t include the names.

Fixed the names.

It's generally my policy to use the color green for independents. However, when two people of the same party or affiliation are running against each other, I color them by avatar color. I don't like the S-avatar color (too dark) so I made R2D2 red.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Maps have been updated.

Only 10 hours remain in this weekend's elections.

In the presidential election, fhtagn leads by a large margin and with a narrow majority (52.5%), with 45 votes to Truman's 21 and Lumine's 17.

The House Popular Vote is 54-27 in favor of the Federalists.

The Lincoln senate race is currently tied, and has been since yesterday.

In the Assembly, ReaganClinton and Blair will almost certainly be elected. It remains to be seen whether kyc or cxsmith will be the final assemblyman.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Encke, your spreadsheet has NHI voting for cinyc.  He actually voted for R2.

Yeah, just realized that.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

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[Fmr. Representative Encke]

If R2D2's vote is valid, then there would be a tie. Does Lincoln have a procedure for determining ties? The Constitution doesn't say anything, but I was wondering if there has been any legislation passed since then (similar to the Fremont's electoral procedures act).

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

In the absence of any direct rules stating whether R2D2's second vote is valid or not, I assume it will be up to the administrator of the voting booth (kyc) to make that determination.

Also, I'm going to have to update the spreadsheet and map to reflect the fact that Lumine is now advancing to the final round by one vote. I had been tracking the final vote on the assumption that Truman would be in second place.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Also, I have to say that I'm mystified by the recent push by Labor to funnel votes toward Lumine. IIRC around 8 Lumine voters had transfers that favored fhtagn, and around 3 Truman voters had transfers that favored fhtagn. Pushing Lumine to second place really only accomplishes three things:
1) it decreases fhtagn's final margin by 5 votes, which is irrelevant because many of Lumine's votes exhaust themselves anyway,
2) it makes a lot of Laborites look silly for voting for someone who ran as a 'true conservative,' and
3) it makes Truman look like a bad candidate (hell, he has fewer votes than Clyde did in June).

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Something may be off in your Lincoln Senate count, Encke. When I go through the thread and count the ballots, I keep on getting 23 R2D2, 22 Clyde (as of Bacon's vote) (taking the four invalids listed in the OP into account) (not counting R2D2's vote). You have 22-22.

That's because I haven't counted r2d2s vote for himself yet. That decision will be at the discretion of the voting booth administrator.

Upon further examination, you skipped over Drew's vote for R2D2.

Drew is invalid.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Something may be off in your Lincoln Senate count, Encke. When I go through the thread and count the ballots, I keep on getting 23 R2D2, 22 Clyde (as of Bacon's vote) (taking the four invalids listed in the OP into account) (not counting R2D2's vote). You have 22-22.

That's because I haven't counted r2d2s vote for himself yet. That decision will be at the discretion of the voting booth administrator.

Upon further examination, you skipped over Drew's vote for R2D2.

Drew is invalid.

According to whom?

According to the Lincoln constitution.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

@Greedo: The legality of R2D2's senate vote is unclear. Please do not attempt to pass judgment on that vote prior to the decision of the Lt. Governor.

That isn't even the vote that's questionable. R2D2's vote is the one that is TBD. It is widely known that to vote in Lincoln elections, one must be eligible to vote for presidential elections.

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This means that voters must satisfy the 10 posts in 56 days requirement, which Drew fails to meet.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Look at what I was responding to again:

Something may be off in your Lincoln Senate count, Encke. When I go through the thread and count the ballots, I keep on getting 23 R2D2, 22 Clyde (as of Bacon's vote) (taking the four invalids listed in the OP into account) (not counting R2D2's vote). You have 22-22.

That's because I haven't counted r2d2s vote for himself yet. That decision will be at the discretion of the voting booth administrator.

Upon further examination, you skipped over Drew's vote for R2D2.

Drew is invalid.

Just like how your vote is invalid LOL

According to whom?

Bold for emphasis. Greedo was telling R2D2 that his (R2D2's) vote was invalid, albeit with faulty bb code. I was telling Greedo to not make assumptions regarding R2D2's vote.

These nested quotes get confusing. Sorry about that.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

The election is now over.

In the presidential election, fhtagn has 50.0%, which is not the absolute majority required to win. LLR is thus eliminated and his votes transferred. 3 go to Truman and 2 to Lumine, with 1 exhausted. As a result of the exhausted vote, fhtagn receives 50.4% on the second ballot and is elected.

In the House election, all Federalists candidates are elected above quota. Thumb is eliminated with the least votes. All Federalists and Laborites on the ballot are elected.

Siren wins the Fremont election by a 75% margin.

The cinyc and R2D2 election hinges on the validity of R2D2's vote.

Lok1999 is elected as governor of Lincoln.

I still need to transfer votes and stuff for the Assembly election, but it is likely that the elected members are cxsmith, ReaganClinton, and Blair. Kyc is not re-elected.

Dfwlibertylover is the Southern governor, and all 7 candidates excluding Liam are elected to the Chamber.

[Fmr. Representative Encke]

Also, that Presidential map looks reaaaaally ugly.