2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nah, NY-24 is the last Clinton-R seat to fall IMO.

He must be talking about California, rather than America as a whole.

Otherwise I'd also add TX-7 and 32.

Sessions is weaker than perceived on here, but he is still favored to win, but it will be a close one regardless.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Pete Sessions is now more vulnerable than Atlas thinks. This race has really changed since over a year ago. This thing has gone from Likely R to Weak Lean R. Either Allred or Salerno will have a good chance to knock down Sessions, though Allred will probably be the challenger. For Pete's sake (no pun intended) Democrats won the Dallas county part of this district this primary over republicans, just the slim part of Collin put them over the top. Also, GE results in Texas almost always turn out to be a little more democrat friendly than primary ballot matchups. I'm encouraged by this result, and might start knocking on doors later this fall in my precinct, since I believe it could make a difference, especially since my precinct went for Sessions in this primary over democrats and Trump by underwhelming margins in the teens. Margins here are supposed to be 40 points or so for the GOP. And it is starting to reduce, even slightly so downballot. My precinct also finally got a Democratic chairperson here after a long absence of one, enthusiasm folks.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is still favored by far. The primary turnout measure thing isn't as indicative as Bagel suggests and Sessions himself is a pretty good fit for the seat. This is country club R territory, and Sessions fits that description to the T.

Sessions (for now) looks set to pick up a decent share* of Clinton 16 voters. It's important to note that many voters in TX-32 went for Clinton but generally voted GOP downballot; these are the people who will determine the race, ancestrally Republican suburban voters. Not every one of them is rebelling in 2018, at least on House level, especially if a good incumbent is on the ballot. Sessions certainly looks set to have something of a competitive race considering the national environment but I remain deeply skeptical he'd actually lose at this stage. I may revise this if I see fit later on.

The area covered by TX-32 was among the first parts of the state to elect Republicans reliably on House level. If this isn't ancestrally Republican territory, few other areas in Texas qualify.

*=decent share by Republican standards (meaning, still a tiny amount). I'd bet that a bigger-than-usual chunk of Clinton voters here are self-identifying Republicans.

No, no lol. He should be somewhat favored, but no where near a lot. Whil primary turnout figures are somewhat iffy, almost always in Texas GE electorates are at least a little more Democrat friendly than yhe primaries. Sessions is actually pretty bad, there has just been either NO democrats, or inexperienced sacrificial lambs in the past opposing him, so they never got pointed out. Sessions is by no means a solid incumbent, and in a debate, if he even accepts one, well... his record alone would slaughter him in there. The thing giving him the main advantage is his long incumbency, name rec, money, etc. Pete Sessions is quite vulnerable, favored, but vulnerable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions (for now) looks set to pick up a decent share* of Clinton 16 voters. It's important to note that many voters in TX-32 went for Clinton but generally voted GOP downballot; these are the people who will determine the race, ancestrally Republican suburban voters. Not every one of them is rebelling in 2018, at least on House level, especially if a good incumbent is on the ballot. Sessions certainly looks set to have something of a competitive race considering the national environment but I remain deeply skeptical he'd actually lose at this stage. I may revise this if I see fit later on.

He could certainly hold on, and I view Texas House races with more skepticism than most, but I don't think this is good to go by. A lot of Republican House Reps won in Clinton seats, and many won very comfortably or by landslides. So there isn't anything unique about Sessions in that regard. Historically speaking, their performance in a past election is not the best guide to their future performance, particularly if there is a switch in control of the White House. 2006 and 2010 is littered with examples of Republicans and Democrats who won comfortably or by landslides in the previous election, only to get wiped out in the next.

I don’t think Clinton won a majority in This district either.

Correct.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jan McDowell, Democratic nominee for TX-24, had an insignificant Q1 haul at $7,800.

She was the 2016 nominee and lost to the incumbent Kenny Marchant by a 56-39 margin, as Donald Trump won the R+9 district 50-44. It could be a competitive race if not for McDowell’s anemic fundraising numbers. But who knows, a rising tide lifts all boats.

Marchant is safe.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

None of this is exact, but it is pretty accurate. For instance Fayette County Clerk only shows twelve additional write in votes and like 4 extra votes for Paul and a couple less for Gray, so literally like 2/5th's of the CD's population with over 136,000 votes shows only like a 14 or so vote discrepancy from my chart I got from NYT. So vote totals might be a few dozen off, and maybe minuscule percent changes and a few dozen write in votes, but overall this is like over 99% accurate. Anyways I thought it was a decent visual.







Anyways, I think this race on the house level is tilt D in 2018.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Having trouble finding the source but Ojeda is ahead of the the GOP candidates in fundarsing for WV-03

https://twitter.com/KentonTilford/status/986615787791224833

Sappers clear the way, airborne all the way, big pharma can go to hell!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824

Just no.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dems panicking in California -->

https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/998958708897001473

Top Dem leader doubts Dems will have wave in 7 Clinton-Republican districts.

I mean yeah, Democrats are trying their very best to do as bad as they can in CA, stupid jungle primaries!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

David Hogg from Parkland has discovered Collin Peterson and is going after him on Twitter.

The amazing thing is that it might actually help Peterson.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Any chance this works?

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html

Lol, this is golden chocolate!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Boy as if Tim Kaine didn't have a easy enough race before https://www.mediaite.com/online/va-gop-senate-front-runner-praised-white-nationalist-paul-nehlen/

Yeah, likely D at this point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very early days, but I heard that Jim Clyburn is retiring from his seat (SC-06) in 2020, so that his daughter, Mignon Clyburn, an FCC commissioner whose term is expiring this year, can run for his seat and receive a ton of endorsements/support from presidential hopefuls jockeying for Jim Clyburn's endorsement.

Mignon herself said that she was headed back to South Carolina to pursue public service in another form, so, it looks likely that the seat will stay in the Clyburn family for at least a few more terms.

Link to very, very large picture of raw filet mignon removed --Mod.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

Fun fact about Najjar: Apparently his grandfather, Mohammed Youssef al-Najjar (a.k.a. Abu Youssef) was third in command of the PLO and also helped plan the Munich massacre as Black September’s operations chief.  

In fairness, I don’t know what Ammar’s views are and hopefully he’s denounced his grandfather’s terrorism, but in light of this, Butner was definitely a stronger candidate b/c this is definitely gonna get brought up if Hunter feels he’s in any danger.

Yeah, that's pretty brutal. Even I as someone who is ok with Hamas, and is warm to Hezbollah really thinks that attack was brutal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ya barring #metoo style scandals Stewart is done. I agree it is unlikely to be by 20, however - Stewart should be able to get the base out and with his bizarre support in PWC he should hit 41-42%. Kaine by 12-15 is probably the final result.

Even with metoo scenarios, I think Kaine would edge out 49-48.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ya barring #metoo style scandals Stewart is done. I agree it is unlikely to be by 20, however - Stewart should be able to get the base out and with his bizarre support in PWC he should hit 41-42%. Kaine by 12-15 is probably the final result.

Even with metoo scenarios, I think Kaine would edge out 49-48.

even with a vague, unspecified scandal, I think my preferred candidate would win by a margin that I have pulled out of my ass

I'm sorry. I just don't see Stewart winning VA statewide.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Bad WI rating.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only people I know of who have the seat as lean dem right now are obvious dem hacks.

I mean, it’s not really that absurd to rate it Lean D, especially given that Manchin will win the district easily against Morrisey. If Ojeda wins this year (which is certainly possible), he might run against Shelley Moore Capito in 2020 and make that race competitive, so Republicans need to take this race very seriously.

You think someone could get Manchin to attach a question for Ojeda in WV 3rd for his next internal? A la reversal Jim Banks?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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looks like bagel was onto something

Indeed, it will be close. Dynamics and such have changed over the past 18 months. Don't just take my word for it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here are some folks who thing the GOP might grab a Senate seat in Minnesota:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/blue-wave-not-where-i-live.php

Just to give some of indigestion and give some of you the opportunity rage against me and call me names. 

Maybe that's another thing that turns you on, but anyways Housley winning is something that even Limo and I would nearly laugh at. Here is probably what is going to go down in the next few months, Smith wins with a mov around the high single digits, but you still pull a narrative out of your a$$ showing how great it is for Republicans. Kind of like when your pedo buddy lost in Alabama. It will make Lou Barletta's spins look like they are bias for democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Crystal Ball moves:

- Pennsylvania Senate: Likely Dem -> Safe Dem
- Wisconsin Senate: Lean Dem -> Likely Dem

Plus the aforementioned WV-03: Likely Rep -> Lean Rep

Source

Bold.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, and Wrong.

VA 10th is Likely D

VA 7th was good at Lean R

VA 2nd was good at Lean R

CA 45th was good at Lean R

NJ 2nd is an alright move

NJ 3rd is an alright move.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, I texted Richard Ojeda and he responded.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, I texted Richard Ojeda and he responded.

seriously, get him to do an ama on atlas!

what did he say?

I just asked him a question about whittling down prescription drug prices.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

Plus don't forget that we have three golden pickup opportunities as well.