State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Dr. Arch]

Final Results for WI AD-64:

McGuire (D): 4,424 (62%)
Stalker (R): 2,677 (38%)

D+24

[Dr. Arch]

Follow Results for the CA Special tonight here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/1

If no one gets 50%, the top two go to a runoff.

First results coming in (5.3% reporting):

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   6,707   
42.5%

   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   5,767   
36.5%

   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,010   
12.7%

   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   525   
3.3%

   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   786   
5.0%

[Dr. Arch]

24.5% in:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   24,132   
40.9%
   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   20,976   
35.5%
   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   9,817   
16.6%
   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   1,223   
2.1%
   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,921   
4.9%

[Dr. Arch]

A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.

[Dr. Arch]

A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.

If 2018 results are any indication.. pretty bad for Democrats but I am thinking the Democrat could pass 40% in Ozaukee County.

Wisconsin is bucking the "trends" slightly but it could royally suck for Democrats if Trump does as well in 2020 as 2016 in driftless and WOW does not move.

Well, Trump failed to crack 60% in Waukesha in 2016. I wouldn't be surprised if he got, maybe, around 55% this time around--something like 55-42.