Rate Maine (user search)
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Poll
Question: Rate the Maine Senate race in 2020
#1
Likely D
#2
Lean D
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt D
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt R
#5
Lean R
#6
Likely R
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Author Topic: Rate Maine  (Read 2359 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: October 17, 2019, 01:00:29 PM »


And Trump almost certainly will lose Maine, though he will probably win ME-02 again. The decline of ticket-splitting doesn't bode well for Collins, and nor does her falling approval ratings.
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Calthrina950
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Posts: 15,919
United States


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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2019, 10:36:10 PM »

The number of crossover votes for Collins is going to collapse in 2020 compared to the last time she ran in a presidential year. In 2008 probably about 20% of all Maine voters cast ballots for Collins and Obama. I would be really surprised if that number is more than 8-9% in 2020.

For the moment Collins in favored but it will be close. I think Maine is one of the few states that could swing slightly to Trump even if he loses, just given the demographic shifts we saw in 2016/18. Plus the Democrats will throw a decent amount of money on this race, which may go far since it's a small state.

If I had to guess now, I'd guess that Collins wins by 2-3% while the Democratic nominee wins by 3-4%

Collins is doomed


No she is not. Her race is Lean Republican, and if Trump manages to come within single digits again, like in 2016 (and I believe he will), she will probably win, or at least come close. My current prediction is that she hangs on by about 3-4 percentage points, like Manchin and Tester did last year.
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