Hartlepool by-election... in October or November

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Prince of Darkness (aka: Peter Mandelson) is to become an E.U Commisioner.
He'll resign his seat (Monkeyland Hartlepool) in the Autumn (local sources say the by-election will be in November).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Should be safe for Labour.

True... but this is a town that voted in a man in a monkey suit to be it's mayor (H'Angus the Monkey. Used to be Hartlepool's football mascot. Don't ask why he's called that...)
On the other hand Labour regained control of Monkeyland UA's Council Chamber in June.

There's a rumour that H'Angus might run for M.P

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

So why is he called Hangus the Monkey?

In the Napoleonic Wars a French ship sunk near Hartlepool. The only surviving member of the crew was the ships mascot (a monkey).
The people of Hartlepool had never seen either a Frenchman or a monkey before, and assumed that the monkey was a member of the crew... so they hung him.
People in County Durham proper have been taking the piss out of people from Hartlepool ever since

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's possible that Robert Kilroy-Silk might stand for the UKIP in the by-election despite having no links with the constituancy at all.
That a man who used to be M.P for Ormskirk (in Lancs) and is currently an MEP for the East Midlands (where he presumably is registered to vote... he lives in Spain most of the time) can even be allowed to run makes a mockery of democracy... we need a locality rule NOW! No more chicken-running!

Oh and guess what else... the LibDems have been printing leaflets (one of their near-libel writ inducing piles of putrid propaganda disguised as a local "newspaper") before Mandelson was appointed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is cheating and should be illegal (hell a by-election won't be called for months yet) and Lord Rennard should be forced onto a diet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Natural" support in Monkeyland is something like: Lab 50%, Con 35%, LD 15%.
But I doubt we'll see that in a by-election...

My guess: Lab 35-40%, UKIP 20-30%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FOR THE RECORD

General Election Result (2001)

Lab 59%
Con 20%
LD   15%
SLP*  2%

*Scargill

Euro Results (according to PA)

Lab  32%
UKIP 19%
Con   17%
LD     13%
BNP     6%

Local Results (% of vote. According to the LibDems...)

Lab  31%
LD    23%
Con  12%

NOTE: TAKE THE LOCAL % WITH A LARGE SALTMINE. LOCAL ELECTIONS ARE NOT LIKE NATIONAL ELECTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN MONKEYLAND.
I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY WARDS WERE UP FOR ELECTION OR THE % OF INDEPENDENTS OR HOW MANY WARDS EACH PARTY STOOD IN.
THESE FIGURES COME FROM THE OVER-LARGE MOUTH OF LORD RENNARD AND ARE PROBABLY PROPAGANDA

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't be too certain that the UKIP can repeat its showing at non-European elections...although their chances should be better at a by-election than a general election...certainly, if UKIP, LDs and the monkey stand against each other and run well (and maybe Respect too?), the protest vote would be so well and truly split that Labour can run away with it.

I'd be suprised if Respect did well in Monkeyland... hardly any Muslims or Yuppies.
The NSDAP BNP might do well though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From British Spin (www.britishspin.blogspot.com)

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Go Robocop!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good ole LibDem Watch

I'd like Robo to run... if not (a 50-50 chance of him running from what I hear) some other "big hitter" would be nice...
It looks as though Robinson will be running no matter what Kilroy does, if so the Hartlepool By-election could be as devastating to Howard (and maybe even Kennedy) as Brent East was to IDS.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So has that monkey made any noises about running?

I've not heard anything... yet. The by-election is a while away yet, and I'd suspect he'd only jump in if there are no "star" candidates running (ie: Robocop or Kilroy-Silk)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Robo isn't running: http://icteesside.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0001head/tm_objectid=14469887&method=full&siteid=50080&headline=mallon--i-don-t-want-mandelson-s-seat-name_page.html*

But my guess is that if Labour lose Monkeyland, Robo will stand in the General election (he'd win)

*Or could he be pulling a Schwartenegger Schwartsczenger Arnie?

Found the apparent news on a new blog: http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

Possible Labour candidates:

Cllr Robbie Payne
Cllr Ian Wright
Cllr Pamela Hargreaves
Moss Boddy (Fmr. Lab. Group leader)
Pat[rick] Diamond (see Ben's post)
Joe Docherty (head of the Tees Valley Regeneration thingy)
David Bowe (ex-Cllr (for Boro not Monkeyland), ex-MEP Hard leftist)

Oh H'Angus has ruled himself out

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

Very good stuff... did you see Routeledge's carp in the NS the other day? that guy just gets worse and worse... Hargreaves would now seem the best candidate to me.  

As long as they don't pick Bowe...
Routeledge gets worse and worse all the time...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

Very good stuff... did you see Routeledge's carp in the NS the other day? that guy just gets worse and worse... Hargreaves would now seem the best candidate to me.  

You read the New Statesman? That paper has a hugely left-wing slant, I prefer the Economist, more of a centrist publication, plus it is weekly, not bi-weekly.

Heh, that's nowt. I read Tribune... if only for old times sake (IIRC correctly that insufferable prick, Seddon, is retiring soon...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDems have selected their candidate: a local barrister called Jodie Dunn. Another irritating female yuppy by the sounds of it...

Apparently former Labour MEP Mo O'Toole is thinking about standing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Hartlepool was almost any other seat in the North East, It'd be a Labour slam-dunk no question about it.
Problem is that it isn't...
Hartlepool's never been fanatically Labour like most of it's neighbours are (when Mandleson cracked 60% in 1997 it was, IIRC, the first time a Labour candidate had ever done that in Hartlepool) and there's that quirky stuff as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Diamond is still running

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pat Diamond is not seeking the Labour nod

[Filuwaúrdjan]

29 candidates are seeking the Labour nomination...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour shortlist has now been revealed...

Phil Graham, a Labour Party agent and Communication Workers Union official from Bishop Auckland

Kath Rolf, a councillor from Sunderland

Ms Lee Vasey, a councillor from Darlington

Iain Wright, a councillor from Hartlepool

...two women I had not heard of so far... of these however I'd say that Wright has a slight advantage.  

As Graham is from Bishop I'll be supporting him
I think Wright'll get it though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wright has been given the nod...

http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

...wining 78% on the first ballot of Hartlepool members , youngish father of three and leading member of the Labour Lead council (which was retaken from the LibDems earlier this year), hmm... I think he looks like a strong candidate...

And to the LibDems and UKIP... "BRING IT ON!"  

Good choice. Rock solid Local and Union creditentials=favourite as of now

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's not running!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's not running!

But then that gives all the media attention back to the LibDems... not an all togetherly good thing IMHO... Kilroy would really have done for the LibDems IMHO... that said I think he could have taken a far larger chunck of Labour voters than the LibDems will... then again I think Labour will hold this one anyway

Prior to the Kilroy announcement, oddly enough Wright had been getting most of the media attention (the Mirror likes him apparently. That's a bonus in Monkeyland)... I think that the Tory candidate in 2001 is running as an Indie... Oh and UKIP will be running someone else methinks...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al. Out of interest do you think that the Liberal Democrats could take the Harbourgh seat from the Conservatives, the reason is I have family in the North of the Constituency (the suburban area), the Tory majority was cut to pieces in 1997 but thanks to the split between the Labour and LibDem candidates the Conservatives held, in 2001 the Labour vote fell down again to a solid third while the LibDems retook ground, the areas is becoming more and more suburban (full of commuters) and the Conservative vote in the villages is increasingly not sufficient to hold back the LibDems while in the European Elections UKIP did very well in area and will probably spend some time on the constituency as I think will the Liberals…

The 2001 results where as follows…

Edward Garnier, Conservative : 20,748 (44.7%)
Jill Hope, Liberal Democrat : 15,496 (33.4%)
Raj Jethwa, Labour : 9,271 (20.0%)
David Knight, UKIP : 912 (2.0%)

….just wondered what you though?

It's certainly possible... Harborough is an interesting example of a seat where the growth of suburbs has actually *hurt* the Tories, making it worth watching.
I'd guess that the Liberals will flood the area in an attempt to hold Leicester South and win Harborough (which could backfire)... from what I've been hearing they don't intend to play safe next election.
IIRC the seat's got a large student population... not exactly the most Tory friendly demographic nowadays and the Tory M.P's majority isn't one to boast about...
I'd say the Tories are slight favourites to hold on, although it could depend on national trends.
Any local major local issues?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gypsies (the antipathy many in the South of the constituency, around Harbourgh its self, hold for the large communities around the Northamptonshire/ Leicestershire border, is quite striking).

Ickky. Another bad place for Anti-Gypsy racism is Northern Herefordshire (around Leominster).
That's an issue that'll help the Tories methinks...

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Fiefdom is accurate. Very, very accurate