UK Opinion Polls Thread

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Of note too, I guess is that Nick "dead weight" Clegg's leader ratings slipped into negatives for the first time, making him the least popular of the 3 party leaders.

Cameron approval - 52/41 (-2/+3)
Miliband approval - 38/20 (+8/-2)
Clegg approval - 41/47 (-5/+7)

I was wondering how Clegg was doing with 18-24s after this week's tuition fees stuff. Last week he was 36/38 amoung 18-24s, now he's 32/47... -4/+9. Gonna be even tougher getting the Liberal students to polling stations, when the time comes. I actually think a majority Tory government would be more popular than the Coalition at this point.

Coalition working together well/badly - 52/39 (-4/+4)
Coalition good/bad for people - 28/48 (-5/+7)
Coalition handling economy well/badly - 42/45 (-5/+7)
State of Britain's economy: good/bad - 4/76 (nc/-1)
Household's financial situation: get better/get worse - 9/57 (-2/+3)

More questions on Wednesday's spending review

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Lib Dems on 6% in Scotland....lol.

Well, there's one way that Charles Kennedy can keep his seat.

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First post-CSR YouGov
41 (nc) 40 (+1) 10 (-1)

Approval 40/45

Con lead... still... Liberals hit a new low.

Channel 4 reports there's a poll out tonight showing the Libs at a 20 year low.

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ICM/The Guardian 24th October 2010
39 (-1) 36 (nc) 16 (nc)

Populus/The Times 24th October 2010
38 (+1) 37 (-2) 15 (+1)

Ed's Labour take the lead for the first time with Populus, in their first poll since September 12th. ICM remains static since their poll on the 22nd for The News of the World.

People don't appear to be that bothered about the all new age of austerity.

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Then why are Labour doing so much better than at the General Election and the LibDems so much worse? The CSR didn't come as a shock to the system because the build-up for it has been going on for months. Government popularity tends to erode rather than suddenly collapse and that's very much been the pattern we've seen so far. Government support only tends to fall suddenly when there are material factors at work; we saw this with price rises in 2008, for example.

Good point, but I was just expecting the government to take more of a hit this week, but they appear to have been on full-on spin mode.

The LibDems are doing so badly because they're seen as "the betrayers", they're not governing how they promised they would. There's also some tactical unwide from Labour voters who tactically voted Liberal to.

All I can observe is that, really, Lab-Con are both doing brilliantly on all counts considering Labour only left office 5 months ago surrounded by sheer division and unpopularity and the Cons are having to make very difficult decisions. Both would be gaining seats if there was an election tomorrow, which can't be a bad thing for either of them, really in these dynamics...

I have a feeling that come January when the VAT rise hits and Christmas bills start hitting doorsteps and the first wave of austerity measures sweep the nation, it'll be the Liberals that bear the brunt of it. Especially come May when they have to explain why they seem to care more about a referendum, which most people don't really care that much about and that is costing £10m, than people's jobs. There is absolutely no where to go but down for the Liberals, for Lab/Con on the other hand, they'll both be in a better position than they were in May 2010.

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YouGov Poll:

Tories - 40%
Labour - 40%
Lib Dems - 11%
Others - 9%

Most movements on the YG are mostly noise, but a tie's good to see. Labour would've killed for 40% back in May.

They've been having it at 40-43 37-40 10-12 for a while now.

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YouGov

40 (-1)
40 (nc)
9 (-2)

LOL.

Coalition - 49
Non-coalition - 51

Just sayin', even though measuring the polls like that is stupid.

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Labour jump ahead on Sunday's YouGov:

41 (+1)
39 (-1)
10 (nc)

Approval -10

No, some consistent movement away from the Libs. Tuition fees clearly aren't doing them any good.

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Labour still ahead, two days later:
42 (+1)
40 (+1)
10 (nc)

Government approval: minus 10 - 37/47 no change.

Tuition fees have definately hurt the Liberals.

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Latest YouGov:

Lab - 42 (nc)
Con - 37 (-3)
Lib - 10 (nc)

Labour 42, Coalition 47. How long until Labour leap frog both parties?

UKPR has the first Lab majority average i've seen since i've been using the site. A majority of 34 on 41-38-10.

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ICM
38 (+2)
36 (-3)
14 (-2)

ICM last had the LDs at 14% when Ming Campbell resigned, so this ties for the lowest LD score from ICM since the 30th March 2001.

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Well, I asked a Briton about it on another forum (back in April), and he said that the reason for Labour overrepresentation was the population decline in Labour-dominated areas since the last census, and that they should be expected to lose ground after 2011.

I'm not the best on boundary commision stuff (you're best asking here), but yeah, we're getting new boundaries and the size of the house of being reduced to 600. As far as I know, the reason you've been given for it isn't entirely true, just partially. Scotland and Wales are currently over represented heavily, compared to England - at the last count, Wales is set to lose 10 seats, I think and as you can see from the current map, Labour are always safe in Scotland and Wales. Another reason for the numbers "favouring" Labour is the fact that turnout is generally much lower in safe Labour seats than in safe Tory seats, meaning that it takes less votes, on average, to get a Labour MP elected. Nothing, except having pro-Tory boundaries, could prevent this.

And no, we don't do our boundary reviews like the US does. Our last review was before the 2010 election and there was one before the 2005 election (I think) and 1997 before that.

Of course, if the coalition loses the confidence of the house before the boundary commision's finished its review, this is all moot.

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I suppose, but that's true in the US, too, and representation here generally tracks the two-party vote fairly closely, or even favors the Republicans.

Don't forget 35% of Britons didn't vote Labour or Conservative. First-past-the-post, like we have in the UK and US, break down when there's more than two parties in the mix.

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I suppose, but that's true in the US, too, and representation here generally tracks the two-party vote fairly closely, or even favors the Republicans.

Don't forget 35% of Britons didn't vote Labour or Conservative. First-past-the-post, like we have in the UK and US, break down when there's more than two parties in the mix.

Yes, but it's my understanding that the Lib Dems (and most of the other minor parties outside of N. Ireland) mainly take votes from Labour, so that should hurt them more than anyone else, right?

At the election, the 24% for Liberal probably would've gone about 60-40 to Labour, there was some polling on it I think. 6 months later, they're hovering around 11%, probably about 60-70% of which would choose Tory over Labour, that's why they haven't left yet - they don't mind being in coalition with their idealogical opposites. Personally, I don't think they've hit their floor yet.

For the smaller parties, the only obvious one that hurts the Tories is UKIP. You're right though, the others, from the Greens to the BNP to Plaid Cymru hurt Labour in some way.

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This will bring a smile to a few people's faces - Lab and Con alike.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2894

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Angus Reid/Political Betting
40 (+3)
35 (nc)
13 (-2)

YouGov/The Sun
41 (+1)
38 (-2)
11 (+1)

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ComRes online/Independant on Sunday

39 (+1)
37 (nc)
11 (-2)

If we had STV, we'd need a 3 party government probably... oh dear, the Liberals are on death's door, surely.

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This month's YouGov Welsh Assembly:

Const:
44 (nc)
23 (+2)
21 (nc)
6 (-3)

Reg:
42 (+1)
22 (+2)
21 (+1)
5 (-4)
5 (+1) (Yes, it's UKIP...)

And tonight's national:
42 (nc)
41 (+1)
8 (-1)

It's numbers like this which leave me waiting in anticipation to see Election Day 2015, especially Nick Clegg's reaction.

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The tables show that the LibDems are tied with the Communist Party in the North Wales region.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-DecemberPolling-221210.pdf

And we're only 7 months in folks...

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Also the Lib Dems often do creep back down between elections

When Joe Public forget that they even exist. Hardly an excuse now...

Gotta feel sorry for the Tories though. If they had a majority, they wouldn't have all this dysfunction and division dragging them down. The Liberals are harming any potential for good government.

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Lab 43
Con 39
LD 7

Tonight's YouGov. The LDs hit another all time low. Labour only behind the Coalition by 3%.

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LD 7

Tonight's YouGov. The LDs hit another all time low.

MORI/Times, 21/8/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 26/7/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 27/6/89, LD 4%

Yes, because a 22 year low is so much better. YouGov's never had them lower in the company's existance anyway. And to be fair, the party was called "The Democrats" until October of '89.

Ok Cameron seriously needs to drop Clegg and either have the balls to call another election or try and govern with a minority government. What good is the man doing him? Nothing, all he was full of hotair during the campaign, and a wasted vote on the part of the electorate that could have saved Britain from going through the travesty of him in government if they had actually voted for real change in the Tories or voted Labour.

As if Cameron would get anything passed in a minority if he suddenly dropped the Liberals. Although, it wouldn't exactly do Cameron any harm if the coalition collapsed soon. The Tories would probably win any ensuing election. Can't wait for Clegg at the debates next time round though.

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EdMil plummeting. Cameron more popular amoung Liberals than Clegg.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/09/ed-opens-20111-with-a-further-ratings-drop/

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EdMil plummeting. Cameron more popular amoung Liberals than Clegg.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/09/ed-opens-20111-with-a-further-ratings-drop/

Do you say "amoung" in Britain? I didn't know that.

*among

School boy error.

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ComRes phone
42 (+2)
34 (-2)
12 (nc)

Biggest Labour lead of the parliament. The Liberals appear to be stabalizing between 8-12, depending on the pollster.

Tonight's YouGov:
43 (+2)
40 (+2)
8 (-2)

Still, if there was an election next month, the Tories would win. They're still trusted over Labour on most things and it's hard to know how much of Labour's rise is just a protest vote, a la 1992.