UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Laughter aside, a major issue is simply that Sunak has all of the very late Richard Crossman's faults without any of his good points. Crossman used to correct the grammar of his civil servants, and by all accounts Sunak treats his MPs in a similar manner: he believes himself to be much more intelligent than anyone else in the room and has a compulsion to show it in a way that often involves humiliating other people.

[afleitch]

Laughter aside, a major issue is simply that Sunak has all of the very late Richard Crossman's faults without any of his good points. Crossman used to correct the grammar of his civil servants, and by all accounts Sunak treats his MPs in a similar manner: he believes himself to be much more intelligent than anyone else in the room and has a compulsion to show it in a way that often involves humiliating other people.

And Tory MPs tend not to like humiliation unless they are paying for it.

[IceAgeComing]

Laughter aside, a major issue is simply that Sunak has all of the very late Richard Crossman's faults without any of his good points. Crossman used to correct the grammar of his civil servants, and by all accounts Sunak treats his MPs in a similar manner: he believes himself to be much more intelligent than anyone else in the room and has a compulsion to show it in a way that often involves humiliating other people.

Liz Truss used to treat officials the same way

Allegedly

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Didn’t Therese Coffey also expend her energy eradicating the Oxford comma during her brief time as Health Secretary? Reed-Mogg also had bizarre grammatical rules though he would do.

[JimJamUK]

The reality is that ordinary members of the public with views not too far from Elphicke are switching to Labour at the moment, it’s just that socially conservative but otherwise not too right wing Conservative MPs up to now were absolutely not. Beyond her P&O stance, which may well have been constituency rather than ideologically based, she had a background in housing policy and is quite unhappy with the governments current proposals and lack of action. Labour on the other hand have made housing one of their few clear differences with the government and a lot of not notably left wing people in that space are warming to Labour as a consequence.

[Torrain]

Slightly different note, but John Swinney was sworn in (we do that) as Scotland’s 7th First Minister yesterday. He retreated to Bute House, and spent four hours reshuffling his cabinet - only to announce that he was giving Kate Forbes the Economy and Deputy First Minister brief, and keeping the rest of the cabinet exactly the same.

It feels notable that she was given Economy, and Finance was left with Shona Robison - means Robison is in charge of the high-stakes budget at the end of the year, which will likely depend on Green votes.

Going to be an interesting moment that one - first budget since the SNP-Green rift opened up (they spent a lot of yesterday releasing terse statements about the SNP shifting to the right, as though that wasn’t the most likely outcome after the Greens ensured Yousaf was ousted), first minority government budget since 2020, and reported to be full of further spending cuts.

All to be held in the aftermath of the Westminster election, when the psychology of the different parties will have shifted significantly, whatever the outcome.

[Torrain]

Apologies for more Holyrood posting. But it’s continued to be an interesting week.

In order for MSPs to join government as ministers, they need to be voted in by the chamber- which meant we had a vote yesterday on making Forbes Deputy FM. SNP and Alba voted in favour, with Tories, Labour and Greens opposed. Lib Dem abstention made the difference.

Which has been one of the more interesting subplots this week. Willie Rennie has been fairly warm to Swinney this week, and after he scrapped the role of Minister for Independence (a longtime bugbear of Rennie’s), he said Forbes “deserved a chance to govern”.

Time will tell. In the past, the Lib Dems have backed down from Holyrood collaboration with the SNP under pressure from unionist members. But there is a political kinship there (see their formal coalition on Aberdeen City Council) - and they do seem to have found a way to leverage their (record low) 4 MSPs, and remind the Greens that not every vote revolves around them.

Also - if this week’s FMQs is anything to go by, Swinney may need some coaching to be ready to front an election campaign.

[Joe Republic]

Perhaps the Tories need to take a lesson from north of the border as a possible solution to their problems.  Obviously Sunak needs to resign, and the path clear for IDS to return as party leader.

[Pericles]

If this trend continues, it's yet more bad news for Sunak lol.

[gerritcole]

If this trend continues, it's yet more bad news for Sunak lol.

Ethelred the unready, the Danes are here what will you do

[CumbrianLefty]

One of the things that makes an election before late in the year unlikely.

[JimJamUK]

Suella Braverman has called for lifting restrictions on benefits for larger families, means testing benefits for wealthy pensioners, and raising the minimum wage.

Defection to Labour incoming? 😜

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think she's going for the Substacker vote in the post-GE leadership poll...

[CumbrianLefty]

I think she's going for the Substacker vote in the post-GE leadership poll...

Do explain.....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think she's going for the Substacker vote in the post-GE leadership poll...

Do explain.....

Wouldn't you rather be left in your blissful innocence?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1789715577902104888?t=j-6fgSMQTODEuHTsZCYc...

Labour when it comes to defectors these days: "want to see us do it again?"

[Torrain]

Don’t do that to me on a Sunday night - not when we’ll have to wait until 11.55 on Wednesday to find out when it’s true or not…

Spoiler alert: defection speculation - I’m sorry in advance

Show

If they’re actually doing this again, I hope Starmer is at least continuing his previous strategy, where he’s targeting MPs who tell a specific story with their defection (Wakeford as a symbol of the Red Wall, Poulter as avatar of the NHS, Elphicke as immigration and housing enthusiast).

Trying to think who’d fit that mould, and no longer sits in government. Alok Sharma making a big pitch on Sunak’s Net-Zero u-turns would be somewhat plausible. Best get would be someone from the MOD, to torpedo (heh) Tory credibility on defence. A James Heappey, for instance, would be a huge get.

Someone untouchable and respected, like Tracey Crouch (who’s retiring anyway) would be a fair shout too. If he wants someone from education, he’d have to take a risk on someone like Nick Gibb, who’s lauded but not entirely uncontroversial.

I mean, who else is there - Caroline Nokes? Moderate Johnson opponents like Jesse Norman or Will Quince? Rehman Chishti, but for real this time? Beyond that, you get into bland technocrats like Karen Bradley, and a small army of Cameron-era ministers who’ve faded into anonymity.

Javid trying to take down *another* Tory PM would be wild - but I’m not sure even Starmer is ready for a Tory chancellor on his backbenches.

Spoiler alert: Additional speculation

Show

Elliot Colburn and Matt Warman, both fairly moderate by modern standards, rebelled to support Jess Phillip's motion on barring arrested Tory MPs from the Commons, along with Nokes. So did Theresa May, but even I'm not *that* gullible. If I had a Pepe Slyvia style red-string conspiracy board, I'd add their names to the list.

[IceAgeComing]

Suella Braverman has called for lifting restrictions on benefits for larger families, means testing benefits for wealthy pensioners, and raising the minimum wage.

Defection to Labour incoming? 😜

The thing is that from as pure an objective basis as possible the two child limit is a very bad piece of policy - the costs of a universal child benefit for all children is relatively low as families are increasingly small; but larger families tend to be poorer and therefore a lot more likely to benefit from child benefit; and the wider costs of dealing with child poverty down the road are a lot more than simply paying the child benefit. The initial policy was meant to try and have a behavioural impact (discourage larger families by the government 'not subsidising childbirth' but clearly that hasn't happened; and therefore you have a policy with no benefits bar a modest upfront cost benefit (which isn't one when you consider there are other obvious savings) and plenty of drawbacks. Add in the Tories going in a more socially conservative/'pro family' way and it might make sense why a Labour government overturning what was a flagship Coalition government policy might end up getting pretty universal support in the next parliament.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ordinarily that sort of briefing would mean that the Conservative Whips Office is either a) feeling paranoid and has decided to spook any would-be jumper into getting cold feet or that b) it has been yelled at by a paranoid No. 10 and is therefore doing the same as a) in order to stop the shouting. I say 'ordinarily' as they've really not been good at even the basics of their jobs for quite a while now.

[ꙮ]

More of a math question than a political one:
At the current rate of by-election losses and defections (nd assuming there will be no general election) at what point in the future will the tories lose their majority? early 2026?

The Conservative working majority peaked at 90 seats on May 10 2021 according to Wikipedia. Today, 734 days later, it stands at 44 seats. Assuming that the Tories lose majority at a constant rate of seats/day their working majority will reach zero 703 days from now, on April 16 2026.

Good guess!

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/thelefttake/status/1789768547486273805

God bless the Tories.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Ordinarily that sort of briefing would mean that the Conservative Whips Office is either a) feeling paranoid and has decided to spook any would-be jumper into getting cold feet or that b) it has been yelled at by a paranoid No. 10 and is therefore doing the same as a) in order to stop the shouting. I say 'ordinarily' as they've really not been good at even the basics of their jobs for quite a while now.

There is of course the alternative possibility, that their own MPs respect the whips so little that they're threatening to defect just to mess with them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Unsurprisingly, the Tories dumped a load of effluent on Labour's newest MP recruit just in time for the Sunday papers. Though the main response of many seems to have been "so you knew about all this for years and did absolutely nothing about it?"

[JimJamUK]

Unsurprisingly, the Tories dumped a load of effluent on Labour's newest MP recruit just in time for the Sunday papers. Though the main response of many seems to have been "so you knew about all this for years and did absolutely nothing about it?"

Particularly since it wasn’t just her ordinary politics, but an allegation that she tried to get a minister to interfere in her husbands trial.

[JimJamUK]

Parliament has voted by a majority of 1 to exclude MPs accused of serious offences from point of arrest rather than only when charged. The deciding vote was Natalie Elphicke, who presumably would have voted against if she had not defected.