EU elections predictions!

[Jens]

Hi everybody!
Think it is about time I make my contribution after having been a frekvent viewer

Denmark
1999:
Socialdemokratiet (SD): 3
Radikale Venstre (RV): 1 (Social-liberal)
Konservative Folkeparti (KF): 1 (Conservative)
Centrum-Demokraterne (CD): 0 ( Centerliberal)
Socialistisk Folkeparti (SF): 1 (Socialist)
Junibevægelsen (JB): 3 (Anti - Union, not Anti-EU - there is a difference, I think??)
Folkebevægelsen mod EU (FB): 1 (Anti-EU)
Dansk Folkeparti (DF): 1 (Right-wing nationalist)
Kristendemokraterne (KD): 0 (christian center)
Venstre (V): 5 (European liberal)

This election is a bit tricky, because of several things: 1) we are only electing 14 M not 16, so somebody are going to lose a mandate
2) Venstre who won the last election has a very weak team this time
3) the former prime minister Poul Nyrup is runing as SD's top candidate
4) nobody has really been paying attention to the election and the turnout is probably going to be low. Perhaps below 50 % and that is very bad in Denmark

Here is my very preliminary predictions:
SD: 3 - 4  + 0/1
Nyrup might be able to drag an extra to SD.
RD: 1  +0
new guy but they are very popular in the cities these days
KF: 1 +0
not a strong team, but probably 1
SF: 1 +0
a very well known top candidate should give them 1, but she can be controvercial and she is pro-EU, which could cost some votes (but no. 2 on the list is anti-EU, so people will probably vote for her instead)
JB: 1 - 2 -1/2
Lost the man who gave them the 3th mandate last time (a very popular Danish actor) and one of the longest serving menbers (15 years). Will lose 1 and perhaps 2 M
FB: 1 - 2 +0/1
There is a chance that FB will regain the mandate they lost at the last election. It all depends on those 2 mandates Denmark has lost
DF: 1 +0
same top candidate as last time. Wellknown and somebody do like him!! their anti-EU and very nationalistic campaign hits right in the heart of what the Danes call the Privet Fascists ;-)
V: 2 - 3
As mentioned earlier, a very weak team and Venstre (who is in power in Denmark) has be polling very badly lately. They very well risk that their voters stay home on the 13th

I hope that I can give a better prediction when some reliable polls turn up!

Jens

[Jens]

I get a maximum of only 15 seats from that... I expereinced the same problem when I made my first prediction...welcome to the forum, it's nice to see another Scandinavian on here.

Thank you Gustav
About the numbers. I know that I don't hit 14 seat but it is very difficult to predict the results because of the posible Poul Nyrup-effect and the incredible lack of polls.
There is nothing in the news about the elections. It's all about Iraq and our prime minister visiting Bush (it is terrible listening to his lousy english (Anders Fogh, not Bush ;-))

[Jens]

Velkommen, Jens! Knallert pige pære pølse smørrebrød halvfjerds!!

Tack så mycke - moped, flicka, päron, korv, smörgås, sjutti.... Denmark isn't that the capital of Sweden :-D

[Jens]

New poll from Denmark

Gallup just released a new poll and it is quite a landslide!! The Anti-EU parties (JB, FB and DF) would lose 4 mandates and only recieve 1!!!!

SD (PES): 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 1 (0)
DF (UEN): 0 (-1)
FB (EUL/NGL): 0 (-1)
JB (EDD): 1 (-2)
V (ELDR): 5 (0)

I seriously doubt that this is going to be the result. The polls have always showed that the Anti-EU would fare badly and it has yet to happen and I also believe that many of Venstres voters are going to stay home and watch football instead.

And another thing: The Danish national broadcasting corporation (DR) announced the other day that the post-election programme will be postponed 1½ hours because of the European Soccer Campionship. England vs. France. :-D

[Jens]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

I have to say that the UKIP puzzles me. I can see that they are in the EDD like Junibevægelsen but it doesn't sound like they have the same "globalist" outlook as JB. Who are they??? I have a feeling that they look a lot like our Dansk Folkeparti (Danish Peoples Party (UEN)) aka rightwing madmen (and women) who talks about losing our national charateristics, EU is nothing but a lot of corrupt Italians and Poles that are going to steal our jobs ect

[Jens]

I like the Newfies avatar.

It's a beauty  - but I would prefer Denmark as a avatar ;-) !!!

[Jens]

Have you an explanation about this (polls for each party ?)
Could you give data for each party ?
In Italy situation is very complex because there's a list "Olive tree" with Socialist (Democratic Left) and ChristDems/Liberal Centrist (Margherita).
And where you put Forza Italia, Berlusconi's party ? Into P? With which party ?
And Alleanza Nazionale, you considers this party U?
Thank you,

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Hi andrewa
Forza I is a part of EPP-ED; AN is in the UAN (Union for a Europe of Nations )
you can see the list and which groups the Italian parties are a part of in the current parlament at http://www.electionworld.org/europeanunion.htm

I don't think that the numbers Ethelberth presented was completely ajusted to the parlamentary divisions in the EP. It looked like the classic newspaper list where the journalists tend to simplify

[Jens]

New EOS Gallup poll for all of the EU:

http://www.eosgallupeurope.com/eosee%202004/index.html

This one actually does not seem to be all that bad...please consider the samples of about 700 and the fact that it's a little dated by now. But for Sweden it seems pretty much spot on.

It seems ok for Denmark too, but I would be very surprised if Venstre gets as good a result as they predict. Just too many of Venstres votes are the type that says "I don't know enough about EU, so i'm not going to vote." Second - I think that Folkebevægelsen mod EU will make it. It's voters are quite fatefull and do show up on sunday, but we will see. I am going to be a pulling official, so I will be able to give a eye witness report

[Jens]

...the turnout might end up above 30%. .

It's still not very impressive. I'm surprised that even the Netherlands, the turnout is very low. (Even though it's also called the Low Lands )

[Jens]

Here is the latest poll from Megafon/TV-2

SD (PES): 32,7= 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 7.9 = 1 (-)
KF (): 8.5 = 1 (-)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.7 = 1 (-)
DF (UEN): 4.1 = 1 (-)
JB (EDD): 10.0 = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP-ED?) 0.5 = 0 (-)
V (ELDR): 22,5 = 3 (-2)
FB (EUL/NGL): 4,9 = 1 (-)

There is a lot of mandates that could tip one way or the other. Junibevægelsen is fairly close to a second mandate, Dansk Folkeparti is not far from losing their mandate and Venstre or Konservative both has a shot at an extra mandate because of a electoral alliance. Everything wil be decided on sunday!

[Jens]

CDA 24,5% (7 seats)  -2
PvdA 23,6 (7 seats) +1
VVD 13,1 (4 seats) -2
GL 7,4 (2 seats) -2
CU/SGP 5,9 (2 seats) -1
D66 4,2 (1 seat) - 1
SP 7,0 (2 seats) +1
Eur. Transp. 7,3 (2 seats) +2 (new party)
LPF 2,6 (0 Seats)
Other 4,4 (0 Seats)

Turnout: around 39%

Look at http://www.electionworld.org/europeanunion.htm for the 1999 election results

[Jens]

My prediction, which I made two months ago:

CDA            8
PvdA           7
VVD+D66    4+1
GroenLinks  2
SP               2
CU/SGP       2
LPF             1

Kinda neat, eh? . Almost correct. . At the time I did the prediction (April 7), the whole Europa Transparant-party was still completely unknown, therefore I missed it. .

I am quite impressed. You probably did it better than most polling agencies. And yes Europa Transparant is needed. Denmark had a socialdemocrat (Freddy Blak) who spend a lot of his time in the EP fighting corruption, like Eurastat. Unfortunately he is leaving because of some controversy in PES, so as Gustav said "Good for van Buitenen" and good for the EU

[Jens]

Right:
FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

Come on, Gustav - calling FP for fascist is pushing it too far. It seems to me that the reason why they have been getting good result these last years is the combenation of a talentet and carismatic leader and a clear centre orientated policy. Those areas where Moderaterna have failed - but fascists, not even close to.

[Jens]

Right:
FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

Come on, Gustav - calling FP for fascist is pushing it too far. It seems to me that the reason why they have been getting good result these last years is the combenation of a talentet and carismatic leader and a clear centre orientated policy. Those areas where Moderaterna have failed - but fascists, not even close to.

I didn't say they were fascists, only that they have moved towards fascism. They're going somewhere, and it's not conservatism and certainly not liberalism. I usually use the term in the hope that there will be FP-supporters nearby, since they turn red and very angry. Their campaign last election was focused on getting anti-immigrant votes and they mostly talk about the need for more police officers, curbing civil rights and keeping out immigrants nowadays.

Your last sentence is a somewhat crude and unfair, but still funny, joke. Charismatic? Centre-orientated? He's one of the most uncharismatic politicians in the country and FP has definitely moved right, a LOT.

I'm not sure that I would call that moving to the right. Take a look at Denmark. Nearly every party (exempt Unity List) talks about problems with immigrants and 2. generation immigrant and the picture is the same in most of Europe. It is, I think, a very undefined fear of a rapidly changing society that many people is having a hard time understanding and grasping. That fear is projected at easily identifiable groups like immigrant and simple demands like law and order. Focus is changing and I think FP is one of the parties that got it quickest (Not saying that I like it)

(PS included Moderaterna to wake you. I think I remember that you would vote for them if you could

[Jens]

Right:
FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

Come on, Gustav - calling FP for fascist is pushing it too far. It seems to me that the reason why they have been getting good result these last years is the combenation of a talentet and carismatic leader and a clear centre orientated policy. Those areas where Moderaterna have failed - but fascists, not even close to.

I didn't say they were fascists, only that they have moved towards fascism. They're going somewhere, and it's not conservatism and certainly not liberalism. I usually use the term in the hope that there will be FP-supporters nearby, since they turn red and very angry. Their campaign last election was focused on getting anti-immigrant votes and they mostly talk about the need for more police officers, curbing civil rights and keeping out immigrants nowadays.

Your last sentence is a somewhat crude and unfair, but still funny, joke. Charismatic? Centre-orientated? He's one of the most uncharismatic politicians in the country and FP has definitely moved right, a LOT.

I'm not sure that I would call that moving to the right. Take a look at Denmark. Nearly every party (exempt Unity List) talks about problems with immigrants and 2. generation immigrant and the picture is the same in most of Europe. It is, I think, a very undefined fear of a rapidly changing society that many people is having a hard time understanding and grasping. That fear is projected at easily identifiable groups like immigrant and simple demands like law and order. Focus is changing and I think FP is one of the parties that got it quickest (Not saying that I like it)

(PS included Moderaterna to wake you. I think I remember that you would vote for them if you could

Yes, I think so...then again, maybe not. The thing is, I don't fit in any party in Sweden.

What you say about immigration and politics is true, I'm not arguing that. My simple point is that for a party that is supposedly the standard bearer for tolerant, humane, wuzzy liberalism, all about being nice to everyone, it's a little strange to suddenly speak out against immigration. One of their slogans was "we say that which others don't dare to", classic racist talk. This is a party that has always argued in favour of a generous immigration policy and for civil rights rather than police authority. They are now in favour of bugging...now, I actually think they're right on a lot of issues, they're closer to me politically now than they used to be, I'm still to their right. But they've sold their soul to get votes, and I find that hard to like.  

I fully agree and find it quite desturbing that clasically liberal parties change that much. In DK the Socialdemocrats have gone the same way. A party that used to base its existance on creating better possibilities for the poor (these days mainly immigrants and their descendants) are now calling them lasy and a threat to the Danish way- what ever that is.

[Jens]

Right:
FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

Come on, Gustav - calling FP for fascist is pushing it too far. It seems to me that the reason why they have been getting good result these last years is the combenation of a talentet and carismatic leader and a clear centre orientated policy. Those areas where Moderaterna have failed - but fascists, not even close to.

I didn't say they were fascists, only that they have moved towards fascism. They're going somewhere, and it's not conservatism and certainly not liberalism. I usually use the term in the hope that there will be FP-supporters nearby, since they turn red and very angry. Their campaign last election was focused on getting anti-immigrant votes and they mostly talk about the need for more police officers, curbing civil rights and keeping out immigrants nowadays.

Your last sentence is a somewhat crude and unfair, but still funny, joke. Charismatic? Centre-orientated? He's one of the most uncharismatic politicians in the country and FP has definitely moved right, a LOT.

I'm not sure that I would call that moving to the right. Take a look at Denmark. Nearly every party (exempt Unity List) talks about problems with immigrants and 2. generation immigrant and the picture is the same in most of Europe. It is, I think, a very undefined fear of a rapidly changing society that many people is having a hard time understanding and grasping. That fear is projected at easily identifiable groups like immigrant and simple demands like law and order. Focus is changing and I think FP is one of the parties that got it quickest (Not saying that I like it)

(PS included Moderaterna to wake you. I think I remember that you would vote for them if you could

Yes, I think so...then again, maybe not. The thing is, I don't fit in any party in Sweden.

What you say about immigration and politics is true, I'm not arguing that. My simple point is that for a party that is supposedly the standard bearer for tolerant, humane, wuzzy liberalism, all about being nice to everyone, it's a little strange to suddenly speak out against immigration. One of their slogans was "we say that which others don't dare to", classic racist talk. This is a party that has always argued in favour of a generous immigration policy and for civil rights rather than police authority. They are now in favour of bugging...now, I actually think they're right on a lot of issues, they're closer to me politically now than they used to be, I'm still to their right. But they've sold their soul to get votes, and I find that hard to like.  

I fully agree and find it quite desturbing that clasically liberal parties change that much. In DK the Socialdemocrats have gone the same way. A party that used to base its existance on creating better possibilities for the poor (these days mainly immigrants and their descendants) are now calling them lasy and a threat to the Danish way- what ever that is.

We're beginning to ask ourselves what the heck you Danes are up to... You're freaking us out with your immigration policies.

I think the FP will end up in trouble, since 1 day they'll wake up and realize that they have no idelogical core. The only reason for their recent success is the weakness of other right-winged parties. With the conservatives now moving leftwards rapidly I see the FP beginning to lose ground. Most of their people are still uncharismatic bureacrats, just like in the good old days.

Well I don't know what we are up to. Last election came as quite as a surprise to me. I never thougth that 13 % of my countrymen (and women) would vote for a openly racial party like Danish Peoples Party (Folkeparti again ) and added to that the fact that our government has based so much of its politics on DPP.
Lets see want happens to FP in the next years. 2006 is far away and perhaps M will rise again

[Jens]

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We were a little shocked over here as well...

2006 will almost certainly see M rising and FP losing. Don't know how much though. The right as a whole will probably also be making gains, but I don't expect them to win. They so rarely do...

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Thats true. Sweden is much more lefty than Denmark's ever been. But let us see how the elections tomorrow goes. They could be a guiding light in Sweden and in Denmark (our election has to be helt before mid-november 2005 and will probably be helt before)

[Jens]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

[Jens]

And here is the overall results in the European Union
   EPP-ED   PES   ELDR   EUL/NGL   Greens   UEN   EDD   Others
Belgium   7   7   5   0   2   0   0   3
Cypress   2   0   1   2   0   0   0   1
Denmark   1   5   4   2   0   1   1   0
Estonia   1   3   2   0   0   0   0   0
Fnland   4   3   5   1   1   0   0   0
France   28   31   0   3   6   0   0   10
Greece   11   8   0   4   0   0   0   1
Netherlands   7   7   5   2   2   0   2   2
Eire   4   2   0   0   1   4   0   2
Italy   28   16   8   7   2   9   0   8
Latvia   3   0   1   0   1   4   0   0
Lithuania   3   2   3   0   0   0   0   5
Luxembourg   3   1   1   0   1   0   0   0
Malta   2   3   0   0   0   0   0   0
Poland   18   8   4   0   0   7   0   17
Portugal   7   12   0   2   0   2   0   1
Slovakia   8   3   0   0   0   0   0   3
Slovenia   4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0
Spain   23   24   1   1   5   0   0   0
GB   28   19   12   0   5   0   12   2
Sweden   5   5   3   2   1   0   0   3
Czech Rep.   11   2   0   6   0   0   0   5
Germany   49   23   7   7   13   0   0   0
Hungary   13   9   2   0   0   0   0   0
Austria   6   7   0   0   2   0   0   3
Total   
EPP-ED: 276 (+43)
PES: 201 (+21)
ELDR: 66 (+16)
EUL/NGL: 39 (-3)
Greens: 42 (-6)
UEN: 27 (-3)
EDD: 15 (-1)
Others: 66 (+39)
Source: Politiken

Highest voter turnout: Malta 82,4 % (Belgium 90,8 % but with compulsory vote)
Lovest voter turnout: Slovakia 16,7% ( in the village of Cervenany nobody voted!!)

[Jens]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

That is quite common in Denmark, but we've got different kinds of wealthy areas. Most of Copenhagen centre is quite leftwing or centre (RV is a social-liberal party) but the northen suburb of Cph is wery rich and conservative. Traditionally the left parties has been strong in the urban areas (quite the opposit of Sweden and Norway) and the countryside has been dominated by the farmers party (Venstre). But remember the difference between rich and poor is not that large in Denmark (the wellfare state and differantiated taxation )

[Jens]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

That is quite common in Denmark, but we've got different kinds of wealthy areas. Most of Copenhagen centre is quite leftwing or centre (RV is a social-liberal party) but the northen suburb of Cph is wery rich and conservative. Traditionally the left parties has been strong in the urban areas (quite the opposit of Sweden and Norway) and the countryside has been dominated by the farmers party (Venstre). But remember the difference between rich and poor is not that large in Denmark (the wellfare state and differantiated taxation )

Yes, I think RV getting good results in rich areas is expectable. I don´t much about their ideas, but generally left-liberal parties speak of issues that concern to people who have other problems already solved. What I didn´t expect was that 2 parties belonging to United Left were also strong there. I guess it´s just that they are stronger in urban areas in general.

Firstly it is important to remember that this was a EU-election and the two movements JB and FB (The June Movement & Peoples Movement against EU) attracts a lot of non-left votes. Enhedslisten (Unity List) is running as a part of FB, but only got 2,4 % at the last diet election compared to FB's 5,2%.
Secondly, UL and its predesser VS (Left Socialist) gets almost all of their votes from the major cities. At one point VS got nearly no! votes outside the inner parts of Copenhagen and Aarhus (The second largest city). And another funny thing. The support for the left (UL & SF) is much stronger in the eastern parts of Denmark whereas the further to the west you go the more votes to the Christian Democrats and Danish Peoples Party.

[Jens]

Jens

is the rural support of RV extinct nowadays?

More or less. In the areas around Skive and Salling in Jutland and Holbæk on Zealand they still has some support but there is almost no small-holders left in Denmark and the rural areas are in terms of votes insignificant. (less that 5 % of the Danish population is farmers today).
I have been thinking about creating a topic under International Politics, where we foreingers could decribe the political systems in our home country (but after next week - I have a deadline on the 24.!). I looks like many Americans is having a hard time understading a multiparty system like Denmark and Finland.