CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004233637431214080

But...he was behind in the first precinct...Atlas assured me he was doomed!

[IceSpear]

Dems are now in second place in CA-08. Hopefully Deplorable Donnelly narrowly misses the general once again.

[IceSpear]

Lol, I just noticed gadfly Joe Baca is still seeking elected office. Gotta love his party affiliation history:

Democratic (Before 2015, 2018–present)
Republican (2015–2016)
Independent (2016–2018)

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004256740672724992

Where did all the chicken littles go?

I will now accept my accolades.

Late ballots in mail in states almost always skew Democratic, so if they're not locked out even now I doubt they will be once all is said and done.

And the pundit wet dreams will finally cease.

And counting still isn't anywhere near finished. Our resident clowns, like always, have egg on their face.

[IceSpear]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

It could even be more than 188K as additional ballots trickle in through Friday.

Right, that number will inch up.  So maybe something like 35% of the vote yet to be counted?  Dang.  Still way too early to examine the total D vs. R numbers in a given district.

Yep, there's still a long way to go. Way too early to analyze and give hot takes on margins, especially since later counted ballots tend to skew D.

[IceSpear]

Seeing all of these "hot takes" online, I cannot help but roll my eyes. I have been following California politics since I was 12-13 years old and while a lot has changed since then, two things have remained fairly constant: 1) it takes forever to count all of the votes (roughly 1/3 of the ballots still have not been counted in OC—my home county) and 2) one should never try to extrapolate the general election results from the primary results. With the jungle primary format, it is much easier to try and do so, but I would warn everyone against that because as people have said before me, primary voters ≠ general election voters.

The problem being that many of our members actually are 12-13 years old, psychologically if not biologically (and in some cases both.)

[IceSpear]

So a Donelly-Cook Runoff looks pretty certain now how do you think this race will go?

It is far from certain. The gap is small and lots of votes remain to be counted.

But Cook would win in a landslide obviously.

[IceSpear]

There's still at least 2.6 million votes left to count in California.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

Imagine if control of the House came down to a handful of close California races, and we needed to wait a month to know the results. lol

[IceSpear]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

Would the 2016 Presidential results have been known that night.  What about 1960?  I do not think you undestand the possible trauma.

Regardless of in what sense you are asking about 2016, there is no crisis. If you're talking about the 2016 election in WA - Hillary won by a landslide and that was clear in the initial results. If you're talking about the ~70,000 combined vote margin in the three states that decided the election, that is outside of the sort of margin that typically would be decided by late ballots alone. If you're talking about the NPV - a two point margin of victory might take a couple of days to be fully confident in depending on the turnout level, yes - but that is a minor inconvenience, not a trauma. Most of America is not election geeks and should be able to handle not knowing the result right away. The security of the country is not at risk from not knowing the result of the election for a day or two.

And in the specific context of the elections we are speaking about here - primaries - there is little to no urgency to know the winner.

A day or two would be fine. But it really shouldn't take a month before you have an official result. California counts absurdly slow.

[IceSpear]

Freitas seems to be outperforming Gillespie almost everywhere. In fact, Freitas is demolishing Stewart in Chesterfield County by ~35 points, which Gillespie won by only 6. This one might be over already.

[IceSpear]

It's annoying that NYT used yellow for Stewart in 2017 yet is now using using red for him.

[IceSpear]

E.W. Jackson is the new Jeb!

[IceSpear]

Whoa, Stewart winning Loudoun by double digits is unexpected.

[IceSpear]

It is seriously hilarious that Fairfax County might end up bailing out Corey Stewart of all people.

[IceSpear]

Lmao, Comstock is going to get Blanched this November.

No...the pundits told me it was a toss up...muh incumbency and Comstock dominated in 2014!

[IceSpear]

Lmao, Comstock is going to get Blanched this November.

No...the pundits told me it was a toss up...muh incumbency and Comstock dominated in 2014!

Wexton is guaranteed to win.  Just like Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Well, she won this district. By double digits. But Rep. Saccone and Sen. Moore agree with your point.

[IceSpear]

I love how fast Virginia counts their votes. Some states are still at like 10% reporting an hour after the polls close.

[IceSpear]

Oh, and that was an intentional dig at South Carolina, which is at 8% reporting despite being a smaller state and polls closing at the same time Virginia did. lol

[IceSpear]

Sanford currently ahead by 1...vote.

[IceSpear]

Corey Stewart is the most fascistic candidate to be nominated for a statewide office since David Duke.  This is no laughing matter.  He must be crushed.

I mean, he'll lose by double digits probably. But don't hold your breath waiting for him to be resoundingly rejected by the Racist VA Hicks that just nominated him, lol. He'll dominate on the WV border.

[IceSpear]

lol

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1006697763852169217

He'll still call it a toss up though because of muh incumbency and muh 2014, lol.

[IceSpear]

Lol at all the posters who said Comstock was underrated when she's struggling to crack 60% against a random jorts wearing weirdo.

[IceSpear]

Do you guys think Arrington will make SC-01 less safe for the GOP?

it's a wash. Arrington is more polarizing politically but Sanford is still... Sanford. He's made a lot of people angry over the years for a bunch of very legitimate reasons (scandals, running the government poorly, anti-Trump in a Trumpish district, and generally being kind of a jerk).

Sanford winning would be much better since it'd show that one can be openly critical of Trump and still win a Republican primary.

The problem is... you can't.

It'll happen in 2 weeks. I don't see why it matters though. We already know the GOP is a Trump cult except in extremely limited circumstances like Romney in Utah. At least we get trash like Sanford out of government, even if it's for the wrong reasons.

[IceSpear]

NOVA gave us Stewart in the primary and they are going to give us Kaine in November.  Time for Real Virginia to secede.

Why not thank the Racist VA Hicks in Appalachia who almost gave you Stewart in 2017 as well? lol

[IceSpear]

Do you guys think Arrington will make SC-01 less safe for the GOP?

it's a wash. Arrington is more polarizing politically but Sanford is still... Sanford. He's made a lot of people angry over the years for a bunch of very legitimate reasons (scandals, running the government poorly, anti-Trump in a Trumpish district, and generally being kind of a jerk).

Sanford winning would be much better since it'd show that one can be openly critical of Trump and still win a Republican primary.

The problem is... you can't.

Hope springs eternal

(and no, Romney doesn't count as anti-Trump at this point)

If Romney doesn't count then Sanford sure as hell doesn't either.