CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[IceSpear]

Van Drew leading 64-17 in Gloucester county for the NJ-02 D primary. Welp, I was wrong.

As you usually are.

[IceSpear]

McCormick on the map with 2 votes!

In other news, it looks like Maddox was overhyped.

And Maddox is back.

This is what happens when you make grand pronouncements based off 0.0001% of the vote being in.

[IceSpear]

Is there any site that gives House results by county? NYT and Politico don't appear to

NYT does. Ex:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-house-district-2-primary-election

[IceSpear]

Plz o plz let that bum Menendez lose

Would be nice, but not gonna happen. Look at his numbers in Northern NJ.

[IceSpear]

I doubt 10% of McCormick voters even knew who she was

Yeah, I admit that I didn't. I just voted for whomever was running against Menendez and assumed that it was a total throwaway for someone who would wind up with about 10% of the vote. Apparently, that turned out to be a more popular option than anyone thought.

How did you get your precinct result?

County clerk's website.

Even no names running against incumbents that aren't unpopular with ethics issues can get 15-20% of the vote, so I don't see why everyone is so surprised.

[IceSpear]

Russ Fagg doing much better than I thought he would do in Yellowstone County. He’s from there and well-known in the Billings area, but this is exactly the margin he needs to stay competitive.

Having "Rosen" in his name was what sealed the deal. He's going to get Fagged.

[IceSpear]

In other news, Andrew was off by ~40 points in his NJ-02 prediction.

[IceSpear]

Nate Boulton won the early vote in Lee County, lol.

[IceSpear]

The Mississippi sacrificial lamb to Roger Wicker contest sure is exciting!

[IceSpear]

Come on Senator Fagg!!! This needs to happen 😂😂

We already have Lindsey Graham.

[IceSpear]

Kathleen Williams has pulled into a narrow lead.

It’s almost like 3% of the vote coming from mostly one county which happens to be the base of two of the candidates is not going to be a good indicator of the state of the race in general.

The D primary for MT-AL is interesting, though. This will probably take some time to be called.

3% is actually restrained by Atlas standards. Someone earlier declared Maddox finished when like 0.00001% of the vote was in, and now he's ahead by like 30 points. lol

[IceSpear]

Did anybody already mention it? Bobby Bright made the runoff in AL-2.

Yeah this was obvious earlier when Roby was clearly going to be held under 50.

Bright was in third earlier, though.


Also, what's going on in AL-5? Ivey's losing all the counties that correspond to the congressional district (plus 1 adjacent; winning every other county in the state) and Brooks isn't exactly sailing through his primary, either.

Ivey's opponent is the mayor of Huntsville, so that was his base. I'm not sure about Brooks.

[IceSpear]

Did anybody already mention it? Bobby Bright made the runoff in AL-2.

Yeah this was obvious earlier when Roby was clearly going to be held under 50.

Bright was in third earlier, though.


Also, what's going on in AL-5? Ivey's losing all the counties that correspond to the congressional district (plus 1 adjacent; winning every other county in the state) and Brooks isn't exactly sailing through his primary, either.

Ivey's opponent is the mayor of Huntsville, so that was his base. I'm not sure about Brooks.

Makes sense. It seems like this would be the area where if any disaffected GOP voters had been dislodged, it would be obvious. That would in theory make Brooks even less vulnerable, yet...maybe all those new "Doug Jones Democrats" pulled a GOP ballot anyway because of Battle/hometown loyalty and decided to stick it to Brooks at the same time.

I did notice that proud pedophilia proponent Jim Zeigler is massively underperforming in the auditor race.

[IceSpear]

Late ballots in mail in states almost always skew Democratic, so if they're not locked out even now I doubt they will be once all is said and done.

And the pundit wet dreams will finally cease.

[IceSpear]

We're hardly on the tip of the iceberg in terms of California votes counted and the hot takes have already begun, lol.

[IceSpear]

Perennial loser Steve Lonegan just did what he does best once again.

[IceSpear]

This is looking bad for dems in CA.

LUL wut. This is what CA-Dems expected. 48 was the scary lockout chance, which appears to have come true as the chance of a potential lockout. 

Anyway, Bryan Caforio and katie Hill are exactly tied in CA-25.

Just that fact that Knight is easily breaching 50 is bad.

8,916 votes have been counted. Nearly 100k were cast in 2016.

I honestly don't know how some of you make it through the day.

[IceSpear]

8,916 votes have been counted. Nearly 100k were cast in 2016.

I honestly don't know how some of you make it through the day.

Heavily medicated

Would this not increase the chance of them accidentally walking into incoming traffic or falling into a manhole?

"Well, there's not a car right in front of my face right this second, so I should be safe!"

[IceSpear]

I know it's still a bit early to say this

Should've stopped there.

By the way, even after "100% is in" on the NYT, votes are going to continue flooding in over the next few weeks. Margins can and will change drastically. Hillary's margin in the 2016 primary was halved from the day after the election until the certification of the results.

[IceSpear]

I know it's still a bit early to say this

Should've stopped there.

By the way, even after "100% is in" on the NYT, votes are going to continue flooding in over the next few weeks. Margins can and will change drastically.

I don't know about 'drastically.'

Hillary's margin in 2016 went from ~15 the day after the election to an end result of ~7. I'm sure there's plenty of other examples, but I don't really feel like hunting for them, since it's not like there's an easy way to find this type of thing.

[IceSpear]

De Leon just took the lead over Bradley.

Impossible. The brilliant scholars at Atlas already called it for Bradley because of Fresno County!

[IceSpear]

Dunno folks, if the Democrats win this November, that means they will lose someday...big loss if true.

I can already imagine the post-November takes about how the blue wave is actually bad for Democrats, cause they'll have to defend more seats in 2020.

It'll be funny to see them fight with the "No, Democrats now have a permanent majority and Drumpf will lose 60-40" people.

[IceSpear]

Looks like we escaped the lock outs well, but even if we get candidates in these potential pick up seats, the gop is still leading well in primary turnout for these districts and breaching 50% in like all of them. This is very bad and should not be happening. Not good at all...

THERE ARE THOUSANDS (MAYBE MILLIONS) OF VOTES LEFT TO COUNT!!!

Not maybe millions. There ARE millions.

[IceSpear]

Someone tell me why Waters at 68 is ok for a blue wave please.

Please go watch a movie or something instead

See, they have no counters, they are just delusional hacks, anyways I turned off the coverage and am heading off for the night, I am going to go watch Doyle Republic and contemplate my life choices.

No, you just ignore all the relevant responses because you're a) dumb b) trolling c) both. I'm leaning towards C personally.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1003709225845944320

The second point is so relevant for right now.

The funny part is that everyone here would acknowledge point 2 in a vacuum, but then their fragile mental state can't handle it when it actually happens, lol.