2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Badger]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

[Badger]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

While OH-01 is more conservative than ever, Chabot's gone out in a wave before.

Yes, but IIRC didn't OH-1 have boundaries all within Hamilton County? Its PVI is notably more GOP friendly with the addition of Warren.

[Badger]

Avon-based Ken Harbaugh, and Ivy-educated Navy pilot and non-profit President, to challenge Bob Gibbs in the Ohio 7th.

Trump won this district by 30 points on a huge swing from 2012. Good luck with that.

Wow, that is one SERIOUSLY gerrymandered district even by Ohio standards.

[Badger]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

 I assume from the post that this was a woman. Looking at the photo I feel like I've been Rick Rolled

[Badger]

Whaley dropping out of the gubernatorial primary would be Ohio Dem's best bet, though it seems somewhat unlikely, as she seems drawn to executive offices more than legislative ones. That said, if Cordray gets in this week, as he is expected to do, it might provide further incentive. (Though she did previously indicate she wasn't afraid of Cordray.)

Fred Strahorn, the House Minority Leader, would be another good get. He's got the fundraising chops and he could probably activate black voters in Dayton other candidates just couldn't do as well.

Montgomery County Auditor Karl Keith would be another good get, he currently represents more of the district than either Strahorn or Whaley, and he's well known, having served in that office since 2000. Probably the least likely of the three to want it, however.

I'm not sure an African-American is the best candidate Democrats could field in this district, bluntly put. Whaley would definitely be better. I don't know about Keith, but few voters can name their county auditor.

Who would be the most likely GOP candidates here? A comeback by Steve Austria whom I believe still lives in the district? I imagine he'd be the strongest Republican candidate by far.

[Badger]

Wow, look at the Republicans surging in the generic ballot: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos both have substantial swings to Republicans.
Looks like tax reform + democratic sexual misconduct scandals has payed off.

 can someone please bounce this obvious troll?

[Badger]

It’s surprising that I still haven’t put the Russian troll on my ignore list. Done!

You are insane, madam. I knew that from the beginning, now i got confirmation. You can't think about anything but "russian trolls". One more good laugh for me, and - thank you! As i already said many times - i have no time to talk to idiots. So, i will be only glad if all people like you would do the same.

In smoochies defense, yes that's my new name for him, he really isn't a troll, and he's one of the few Russian posters who are, well, openly Russian rather than a troll bot employed by Putin. Though his posts here are kind of out to lunch

[Badger]

Nevada's filing deadline isn't for a smidgen over a month and a half; is it possible he isn't going to run for reelex?

Considering he's got major primary challenge to have to get through first, and in this climate he is not quite Kirk esque levels of toast yet, he's approaching it. It frankly wouldn't surprise me. The party leaders probably wouldn't push him too hard to stay because it would avoid him and Danny t sucking up Financial Resources for a major primary fight which could be better for November.

[Badger]

Yarmuth going nowhere in 2018.

[Badger]

Hey GOP, where's your megadonors now?

They are not really needed quite yet. Donald Trump won the 2016 election despite having less money than Hillary Clinton.

Please stay on topic to Congressional elections and I encourage people not to reply to trolls. --Brittain33

It would help if those even the Mods identify as trolls were simply banned.

[Badger]

It would help if those even the Mods identify as trolls were simply banned.

People I identify as acting as trolls on boards I moderate may not meet the standard set by the overall Forum terms for being banned as trolls. That said, there may be room for further debate on this in general and with regard to specific posters and I encourage people to raise this on one of the forums dedicated to moderation for discussion.

It also helps if people report posts as troll posts, creating a record.

Most people don't bother doing so anymore, Brittain, because no one believes that last sentence.

[Badger]

Rothfus got screwed over.

Theoretically, he can just go over to the new 14th and prolly be safe till retirement.

Doubt it. If Saccone wins, that's his territory. Rothfus currently only represents a portion of the new 14th (Northern Westmoreland County). Even if Saccone loses there's a robust local GOP bench for the 14th that would look ill upon his abandoning incumbency in a +3 Trump district (the new 17th) to carpetbag like that.

[Badger]

Lamb all-but certain to run in PA-17 no matter the special election results:

http://wesa.fm/post/bumped-new-district-lamb-says-he-ll-run-primary-doesn-t-say-where#stream/0

Dems are certainly getting the ball going on recruiting so fast. Very impressive if they get both DePasquale in PA-10 and Lamb in PA-17.

I hope Rachel Reddick is strong enough to ride a wave in Pa-1. Her former Republican registration could be a plus if she plays her cards right. This race and PA-10 will probably be the hardest of the new competitive seats for Dems to win.

I think Fitzpatrick will live, just because of his uncontroversial image and his brother. You're right about Lamb and DePasquale though. I myself wouldn't mind seeing Rothfus get thrown out, tbh.

In a normal year oh, maybe. But if this comes up to being even close 2 the Democratic wave year it's shaping up to be, I can't conceive Fitzpatrick not being toast

[Badger]

Ossoff will not run again in GA-06

So who will? (Other than Handel of course).

[Badger]

I want one of the AZ Berniecrats to go for McCain’s seat but he might be to the left.

If Kelly decides to stay retired, which I expect will be the case, I'm hoping Gallego will take the plunge. He's not an out-and-out Berniecrat, but he has roughly the same progressive cred as Raul Grijalva, who at this point is way too old for any higher office. Gallego is a veteran, too, which I feel is crucial for McCain's seat.

Is there any indication Gallego is interested? My understanding was Stanton’s House race was more or less a shadow Senate campaign

I expect Gallego will make the leap eventually, considering he's young enough to have decades left to his career. As for Stanton, he's definitely angling for something, but he would be an awful candidate in actuality. He has zero charisma or personal appeal in the way Sinema, Kelly, and Gallego all do, and he had a few financial stumbles as Mayor that his Republican opponent could use to their advantage.

Kelly would be virtually unstoppable. Gallego is a little too liberal.

This.