Cuomo vs. Sandoval 2020

[Bo]

Obama gets reelected in 2012. The Democrats nominate Andrew Cuomo in 2016 (since Hillary declines to run for health reasons). Cuomo picks Lisa Madigan as his VP and defeats Bobby Jindal in the general election. A recession strikes the U.S. in 2018-2019, with a jobless recovery occuring in 2020. The economy begins to look a little better throughout 2020, and Cuomo brings former President Barack Obama and both Clintons to campign with him. However, significant job growth does not occur until 2021, after the election. The Republicans nominate Nevada Senator and former Governor of Nevada Brian Sandoval, who picks Wisconsin Senator Paul Ryan as his running mate. How would this election turn out? I think that Sandoval will narrowly win because people would be fed up with the recession (and jobless recovery) and with 12 years of Democratic rule. However, I think that the Democrats will retain control of both houses of Congress since people would want to avoid a repeat of Bush Jr., when Republicans controlled the Presidency and both houses of Congress for most of the time.

Discuss.

[Bo]

This is how a narrow Sandoval victory would look like.

However, I'm unsure about the exact EV count for 2020 (it is Sandoval 291, Cuomo 247 using 2008 EVs) since the Electoral College will be reapportioned following the 2010 Census.

[Bo]

Sandoval gets it. After 12 years of democratic rule, it is basically assured.

How do you think the electoral map will look like?

[Bo]

I believe that in 2020, the Nevada/New Mexico/Arizona threesome will be strongly Democrat because of increased Hispanic voting. So, I'm giving it a close Democratic win.




Cuomo 272
Sandoval 266

If the Democrats can pick off Arizona, it's going to be a battle for the Republicans to win nationally, unless they change their positions or attack Michigan/Pennsylvania.

Yes, but Sandoval is Hispanic himself, so I believe that this factor combined with a poor economy would allow him to win several Southwestern states that typically vote for the Democrats.