The 2024 Presidential Election: A week by week timeline

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Breaking: Joanne Hurt wraps up the New National Liberal nomination, will face off against Short

New York -

Sen. Joanne Hurt (MN) has secured enough pledged delegates to secure the NNL nomination. She will face off against American Labor nominee Veronica Short (NY). This comes after her commanding win in the Pennsylvania primary, where she received 63% of the vote. Her nearest competitor, Michael DeMoreno, received 33%. DeMoreno suspended his campaign early this morning and is expected to endorse Hurt in the coming days.

The Hurt campaign released the following statement to AP.

"We are happy to have received the required number of delegates to close out this primary. Senator Hurt has thanked DeMoreno for a hard-fought race and invites him and his team to join us in putting America back on the path of fiscal responsibility, global competitiveness, and leadership in the world."

As of May 5, Hurt was polling even with Short. In a Marist poll, likely voters gave Hurt 44% to Short's 42%. The remaining 14% mostly went to the Christian Democrats.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Can I please have some more (context behind how the parties came to be and what they stand for), Sir?

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Gov. Short visits Philadelphia in campaign stop first

Philadelphia -

New York Gov. Veronica Short, the ALP nominee, visited Philadelphia today to speak at a rally in what has been seen as a preview to what her campaign for President will look like. Speaking to an audience of students, organizers, and union members, Short stressed her party's commitment to protecting labor unions, reforming the immigration system, lowering drug costs, and fighting to lower crime across America's cities.

"America is at a crossroads. Either we can prioritize the 1% and drug companies, let workers fall by the wayside, allow American industries to be picked apart by global corporations, and watch as crime destroys our cities. Or we can take a stand and help the working families that made America great, empower women, clamp down on out of control immigration, give much needed funding to our cities' police departments, and restore trust in our institutions... America is not about Wall Street. It's about Main Street."

Short will travel to Cleveland next week.

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Current polling map as of May 5, 2024

Red - States where Short has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Blue - States where Hurt has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Orange - States where Falco (presumptive nominee) has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Gray - Competitive states where no candidate has more than a 5% lead across a 5 poll average.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I feel the need to ask all these years later, is The Reborn Republic not happening?

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I feel the need to ask all these years later, is The Reborn Republic not happening?

I am unable to not abandon projects after starting them

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Preview for Sunday's post.

- Marist poll of Short vs. Hurt vs. DeFalco in Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Missouri

- Quinnipiac poll of Short vs. Hurt in New York

- PPP poll of Short vs. Hurt in California and Nevada

- Breaking news out of Eastern Europe

- April Economic numbers

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Serbian Ultranationalists Take Power after Snap Election

Cvetkovic speaking in Belgrade on Thursday prior to the election

Belgrade, 12 May -

On Saturday, a coalition of Serbian conservatives, nationalists, and populists won a narrow majority in the Serbian National Assembly. This victory occurred after a snap election was called by the country's president after the previous government collapsed. The coalition of right-wing parties is led by Mitar Cvetković, a native of the city of Nis in the south of Serbia.

Cvetkovic is widely expected to be elected as Prime Minister in the coming weeks. His coalition is widely seen as pro-Russian and Eurosceptic. Cvetkovic and others in his sphere have expressed their support for the independence of Serbs living in Bosnia. European observers have rung alarm bells regarding these views, claiming they represent a veiled threat of war with Bosnia.

Cvetkovic is expected to begin forming his cabinet in the coming days. International reactions have been mixed. Russia and Belarus, as well as leaders in the Srpska Republika in Bosnia, have congratulated Cvetkovic on his victory. Western European leaders, as well as the leaders of Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries have expressed concern.

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Marist: Hurt up in Illinois, Short leads in Missouri and Pennsylvania.

A recent trio of Marist polls have confirmed that the Presidential race remains a tossup going into the summer. The polls of three critical states in the Northeast and Midwest show that neither Short or Hurt have a commanding advantage in the. Marist polled Illinois, Missouri, and Pennsylvania, with results as followed.

The three states contain 48 Electoral Votes among them. Illinois, traditionally a NNL stronghold, has been drifting away from the party for some time. However, Hurt still holds a lead in the state. Pennsylvania, a perennial bellwether which has oscillated between liberal and laborist parties, backs Short by four points. Short leads Missouri by a similar margin of six points.

Pennsylvania (n=800, May 13-17)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 43%
Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 39%
Steven DeFalco (CDP) - 11%

Illinois (n=1000, May 13-17)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 40%
Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 45%
Steven DeFalco (CDP) - 8%

Missouri (n=1000, May 13-17)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 45%
Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 39%
Steven DeFalco (CDP) - 15%

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Quinnipiac: New National Liberals Narrowly Up in New York

A new poll from Quinnipiac poll has shown Sen. Joanne Hurt (NNL) up in New York state. The poll, conducted from May 10 to 13, shows Hurt narrowly leading Veronica Short 43-42 in the Empire state. Much of Hurt's strength comes from Long Island.

The Quinnipiac poll breaks down the results further.

Manhattan: Short +1
Brooklyn: Short +8
Queens: Hurt +2
Bronx: Short +11
Staten Island: Short +13
Westchester: Hurt +11
Suffolk: Hurt +27
Nassau: Hurt +13
Upstate: Short +10
West New York: Short +8

By median household income
Under 50,000: Short +14
50,000 to 75,000: Short +6
75,000 to 100,000: Hurt +4
100,000 to 125,000: Hurt +18
125,000+: Hurt +19

By education
High School: Short +17
Associates or some college: Short +11
Bachelor's: Hurt +2
Master's: Hurt +8
Doctorate: Hurt +23

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PPP: Short up in Nevada, Hurt up in California

A PPP poll of two states, conducted from May 9 to 11 finds Joanne Hurt leading Veronica Short by 4 in California, 45 to 41. In Nevada, Short leads Hurt by 3, 45 to 42.

In California, much of Hurt's lead comes from Southern California, where she leads by a greater margin: 54-39. Despite American Labor gains in San Diego and Santa Barbara counties over the past few years, SoCal remains a tough nut to crack for the laborist party. However, the story in Northern California is different, where Short leads Hurt 48 to 38. Short's base remains in the Sacramento Valley as well as San Francisco and Alamameda Counties.

Meanwhile, Hurt derives much of her lead from Orange, Riverside, Kern, and San Bernardino counties

In Nevada, Short performs well in North Las Vegas and Sunrise Manor as well as dominating in the city of Reno. Short also remains competitive in the rural parts of the state. Hurt does best in cities like Henderson, Enterprise, Spring Valley, western parts of Las Vegas proper, and Carson City.

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April Economic News: Service and Hospitality Boom in Post-Covid Growth

Los Angeles -

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs, which is roughly what was expected by experts. Much of this growth came from the service and hospitality industries which have been experiencing growth since the de facto end of the COVID pandemic. Moderate growth has also occurred in technology, science, and medicine industries. Unemployment remained stable at 4.1%.

Manufacturing has stagnated for the eighth month in a row, drawing ire from labor activists and unions.  ALP leaders in congress again call on the Senate to bring up their bill, the Manufacturing Revitalization and Innovation Act, to a vote. It is unlikely the Senate, under NNL control, will bring the bill to a vote.

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Preview for Sunday

- Crisis in the Middle East
- New Challenger Emerges?
- VP Shortlists

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Hurt did not disclose $1000 worth of gifts from Spanish Deputy PM

New York, May 17.

According to recent reporting from the New York Times, it has been discovered that 2024 NNL Nominee and Minnesota Senator Joanne Hurt failed to disclose $1000 worth of gifts she received from the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain in 2022. At the time, Hurt was visiting Europe on a tour to bolster US-EU relations.

Some of the gifts included artwork, clothing, and smart phone accessories. The NYT reached out to the Hurt campaign for comment but no response has been issued.

ALP nominee Veronica Short quickly seized upon the issue. "$1000 is not pocket change. This was a clear violation of ethics codes and represents a serious issue with Hurt's judgment." She said to reporters at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania. "Do we want a President in the Oval Office who fails to disclose lavish gifts from foreign powers? I know I don't."

Hurt is slated to speak to Meet the Press tomorrow evening, where the question will surely arise.

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Short VP shortlist leaked

Chris Wisnewski speaking in Florrisant, MO

Los Angeles Times
May 17

New York Governor Veronica Short and American Labor nominee is considering a number of people to be her partner in the 2024 Presidential Election. Many commentators consider it likely that Short picks Missouri Senator Chris Wisnewski, who would shore up her support in the Show Me State. Wisnewski, a St. Louis native, could also help Short perform better in southern Illinois and tip the state to her favor. Wisnewski is a noted social progressive, which could contrast with Short's moderate image. Picking him could shore up some socially liberal voters in the Northeast and West.

Another possibility is former Virginia Senator Harris Warren, who could assist Short in capturing voters in the populated Hampton Roads region as well as increasing margins in Arlington and Alexandria.

The names considered are:

Sen. Harris Warren (VA)
Sen. Chris Wisnewski (MO)
Fmr. Sen. Andy Calistano (NJ)
Fmr. Gov. Tom Burgess (WA)
Rep. Alison Wood (TX)
Fmr. Rep. Joshua Crespo (FL)

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Social Democrats consider entering race, first since 2016

Anne Shields speaking at a Labor Day rally in Boston last year

New York
May 17

The Social Democratic Party is reportedly gearing up to launch a presidential bid this year, aiming to compete with the American Labor Party and New National Liberals. The SDP last competed in 2016, under nominee Phil Marshall, where it placed fourth.

Several SDP candidates have expressed interest over the past few weeks, including former  Massachussets Gov. Anne Shields, New Jersey Representative Param Singh, Maryland Representative Stephen Hernandez, and activist and former State department official Selma Machado.

If entered, the SDP would be competitive for third place, edging out the Chrisitan Democrats in several Western and Northeastern states.

A recent FOX news poll tested a possible ALP vs. NNL vs. CDP vs. SDP match. The poll showed a close race nationally between Labor and National Libs. However, the SDP remained very competitive for third place, edging out the Christian Dems narrowly.

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 36%
Veronica Short (ALP) - 33%
Generic SDP - 15%
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 13%

FOX also polled specific candidates and found the following results. Hernandez and Shields polled best, likely due to name recognition. Singh and Machado performed worse.

Param Singh in Edison, NJ

Joanne Hurt - 35%
Veronica Short - 32%
Stephen Hernandez - 17%
Steven DiFlaco - 12%

Hurt - 36%
Short - 33%
Anne Shields - 15%
DiFalco - 13%

Hurt - 40%
Short - 37%
DiFalco - 15%
Selma Machado - 7%

Hurt - 39%
Short - 36%
DiFalco - 15%
Param Singh - 8%

The SDP has an opportunity to shake up the race by offering a socialist or social democratic platform. Many left-leaning voters in the West and Northeast have shown interest in voting for the SDP, finding the American Labor Party to be too socially moderate and the National Liberals to be too pro-business. SDP candidates have a lane with socially liberal and pro-worker voters, as well as secular, well-educated voters who may be tempted away from Hurt.

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Marist: Hurt Up Nationally, movement against Short

May 15 - 19 (1000 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 46% (+2)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 41 (-1%)
Steven DiFalco (presumptive nominee) (CDP) - 12% (-2%)

First Quinnipiac Poll: Hurt Narrowly Up

May 14 - May 19 (800 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 44% (+1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 43% (=)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 11%(-1)

NYT/Ipsos: Hurt Leads Presidential Race

May 10 - May 15 (1200 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 43% (+1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 36% (-3)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 19% (+3)

CNN: Tied Race

May 13 - 15 (950 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 43% (-1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 43% (-2)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 10% (+2)

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Turkey attacks Northern Iraq, Saudi Arabia warns intervention

18 May
Erbil

Early this morning, Turkish jets attacked Kurdish targets in northern Iraq. This operation came as a surprise to both Iraqi and Kurdish officials. The attack occurred at around 03:00 AM local time near the city of Zakho, close to the Turkish border. The attacks consisted of targeted bombings carried out by TAI Hurjets. The Turkish government claimed it was targeting a number of militias who were funneling weapons into Turkey for use by who officials called "terrorists". The Turkish-Kurdish relationship has remained cold for decades as Kurds make up a large minority in eastern Turkey and a group that has been targeted by Turkey in the past.

A number of countries condemned the attack, including Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. The latter threatened Turkey against further attacks, vowing to respond appropriately to any infringement on either Iraqi or Kurdish sovereignty. European leaders have cautioned against inflammatory rhetoric.

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President Warns NATO Ally Turkey against further aggression in Iraqi Kurdistan

President Carey at the White House

Washington D.C. May 19 -

Today, Charles Carey warned Turkey against further military action against the Kurds in Iraq. This warning comes after Turkey attacked several targets outside the city of Zakho in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The US and Turkey are both in NATO, however this did not prevent Carey from communicating to the Turkish government that the US would not condone further advances into Kurdistan.

Despite these warnings, there is no indication that the US would make any meaningful changes to the American-Turkish relationship. As Turkey is a member of NATO, the US would be obligated to come to the nation's aid in the case of any invasion. Carey affirmed such a committment but also implied that the military would not aid in any offensive operations.

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Candidates clash over Middle East Crisis

Washington, 19 May -

In the hours following the Turkish incursion into northern Iraq and the response by Saudi Arabia, both Hurt and Short have responded. The two candidates offered different reactions to the row. Speaking to CNN, Sen. Joanne Hurt (MN-NNL) affirmed Turkey's right to defend itself against terrorism and warned Saudi Arabia against further attacks.

"Turkey is a NATO allly and has an inherent right to stop weapons smuggling from across the Iraqi border. I would caution the Saudis against making any more threats... [W]e don't want another war in the Middle East." Hurt said. "Saudi Arabia has been an ally to us in the past, but as President I will stand up to anyone, even our friends."

When pressed on the fact that Turkey launched these attacks preemptively, Hurt said "Turkey has a right to secure its own borders. That does not mean I condone everything their military does, but this was a sensible decision." She continued "What we should be talking about is the bloody Saudi intervention in Yemen that has killed hundreds of thousands."

Alternatively, Gov. Veronica Short (NY-ALP) has been more critical of Turkey. Speaking to reporters in Brooklyn, Short said "This decision by Turkey was reckless. There remains no convincing evidence that weapons smuggling across the border is occurring." She said. "What this appears to be is a prelude to Turkish expansion into Kurdish territory at the expense of Iraq. We should be standing by our Iraqi partners and sending a clear message to Turkey that further attacks will not be tolerated."

[Steve from Lambeth]

How in the hell has Hurt gained in the polls after being accused - more or less - of accepting a bribe?

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How in the hell has Hurt gained in the polls after being accused - more or less - of accepting a bribe?

The polls were conducted before the revelation.