2004: Chafee mounts GOP primary challenge

[osideguy92]

Right before the 2004 primaries began, Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) was seriously considering mounting a primary challenge against George W. Bush in the Republican primaries. He was ultimately dissuaded from doing so following the capture of Saddam Hussein on December 13, 2003.

Give me a prediction and a map of what you think would have happened had Chafee thrown his hat into the GOP primary field. How badly would Bush have been damaged, if at all? Does Chafee have a chance at winning New Hampshire and mounting a much wider primary campaign? How does it impact the Democratic race? Who ultimately wins the nomination of both parties and how does the general pan out? Let me know what you think!

[Maxwell]

Bush wouldn't have even needed to campaign against the guy. Easy sweep!

Colin Powell, on the other hand, might've been a challenge, but still Bush could've dealt with him fairly easily.

[Darth Maul]

Easy win for Bush no sweat.

[Tayya]

If the Democrats had an incumbent and thus an uncontested primary, Democratic or anti-war independents could perhaps have voted in the Republican primary, and considering Bush only got 80% of the NH votes OTL, Chafee could have got around 25%, at the most. But he doesn't compute well at all with the Republican base, and is too awkward to gain momentum. He will probably be even more of a Republican Lieberman until the 2006 election where he would likely be primaried by Laffey or someone else, which almost happened OTL. He might have won as an independent, probably caucusing with the Democrats.

[Peter the Lefty]

Bush wins easily.  I mean, the fact that Chaffee was a Republican is an anomaly.  Even then, he was to the left of 99% of his fellow Republicans, and he's actually to the left of at least half the Democrats, too.  Now, if it were someone who could genuinely be considered conservative who challenged Bush on an anti-war platform, like Chuck Hagel, then he might do a little bit better.  Bush would still win hands down, though.

[dudeabides]

Easy win for Bush no sweat.

McCain backs Bush, Bush wins NH after easily winning Iowa, Bush then wins every other contest and 90% of the vote nationally.