MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2 (user search)
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  MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2  (Read 1849 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

« on: September 27, 2014, 12:41:50 AM »
« edited: September 27, 2014, 01:46:49 AM by wormyguy »

You could alternatively look at other recent Globe polling:

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias

2010 Gubernatorial election:

Actual Nov. 2: Patrick 48 Baker 42 Cahill 8
Globe Oct. 17-22: Patrick 43 Baker 39 Cahill 8 - 4-point GOP bias, but it should be noted that the Globe never showed Baker leading or a tie

2010 MA-4:

Actual Nov. 2: Frank 54 Bielat 43
Globe Oct. 17-22: Frank 46 Bielat 33 - 2-point Dem bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point GOP bias

2010 Senate special election:

Actual Jan. 19: Brown 52 Coakley 47
Globe Jan. 2-6: Brown 36 Coakley 53 - 22-point(!) Dem bias
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2014, 01:22:51 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 01:37:28 AM by wormyguy »

You could alternatively look at other recent Globe polling:

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias

2010 Gubernatorial election:

Actual Nov. 2: Patrick 48 Baker 42 Cahill 8
Globe Oct. 17-22: Patrick 43 Baker 39 Cahill 8 - 4-point GOP bias, but it should be noted that the Globe never showed Baker leading or a tie

2010 MA-4:

Actual Nov. 2: Frank 54 Bielat 43
Globe Oct. 17-22: Frank 46 Bielat 33 - 2-point Dem bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point Dem bias

2010 Senate special election:

Actual Jan. 19: Brown 52 Coakley 47
Globe Jan. 2-6: Brown 35 Coakley 50 - 20-point(!) Dem bias

You can't really count the last one considering Brown's surge was a last minute event, and Coakley did in fact have a huge lead at that time. As far as MassInc, I can't find any polls they did pre 2012, but they performed much better than the Globe in the only election cycle where they can be compared. Either way, I'm going to believe them considering their polls have been pretty consistent in showing a decent sized Coakley lead whereas the Globe has bounced all over the place this entire cycle for no reason (ex: going from Coakley +7 to Baker +1 in a single week when nothing notable happened in said week).

Two pollsters were in the field at approximately the same time in 2010; Rasmussen had Coakley up 50-41 in a poll conducted the night of Jan. 4 (14-point Dem bias), while their second and final poll on Jan. 11 had her up 49-47 (7-point Dem bias), PPP had Brown up 48-47 Jan. 7-9 (4-point Dem bias; the first poll to show Brown leading), and their final poll Jan. 16-17 had Brown up 51-46 (no bias). Besides the Jan. 11 Rasmussen, every poll conducted after the Globe one by orgs other than the proven-fraudulent Research 2000 showed a Brown lead. It's fair to say that the Globe poll was a very significant outlier (not least b/c the Coakley people were furiously pimping it even before the PPP was released; clearly their internals were scaring them).

As for MassINC, it appears in two of the elections I listed.

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias
MassINC June 6-9: Markey 43 Gomez 36 - 3-point GOP bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point GOP bias
MassINC Oct. 13-15: Keating 46 Perry 43 - 2-point GOP bias
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2014, 01:52:26 AM »

Wikipedia was slightly off on the Globe Brown-Coakley poll, with leaners it was 53 Coakley, 36 Brown for a 22(!!!)-point Dem bias.
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