France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître

[mvd10]

Centre-Left president Emmanuel Macron's Centre-Left Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is announcing a bunch of policies at the moment, including cutting spending by 3% of GDP and cutting the national tax burden by 1% of GDP.

The good news is that any reforms to the ISF have been put off until 2019 at least.

3%? Isn't that 75 billion? That's more than what Macron promised during the campaign. It keeps getting better !

[mvd10]

Why is Fillon a candidate lol? Is he seriously considering running again or is this more of a poll see how people would vote knowing what they know now (like the Obama vs Romney polls after the Obamacare implementation fiasco)? And I guess Fillon's drop is explained by Macron eating up centre-right voters? Or did new scandals emerge?

[mvd10]

At this stage I'd vote for Macron over someone from LR in 2022 lol.

[mvd10]

First poll for the 2019 european election, Ifop for Le Figaro

LREM: 26%
FN: 17%
FI: 14%
LR: 12%
PS: 8%
DLF: 6% (Dupont-Aignan)
Greens: 4%
Center-right: 3.5%
Others: 3%
Communists: 2%
Patriots: 2% (Philippot)
UPR: 1.5%
Far-left: 1%

Obviously a very bad poll for LR and Wauquiez, but I have a hard time to believe that FN and DLF are that high.

Is the Center-right UDI or are they the LR split-offs?

[mvd10]

Does Melenchon have a successor on the Left, or does he plan to run in perpetuity?

Haha lol Segogo

He has some politicians with him that could success him: MPs like Alexis Corbière, Adrien Quatennens, Eric Coquerel are the most known. But they are not so charismatic than he is

What about François Ruffin? I saw a documentary about the French elections in the Netherlands which followed his campaign as a part of the documentary. He looked like someone who could make an impact in the future.

[mvd10]

Spending cuts - check
Tax cuts - check
Labour reform - check
Immigration restrictions - check
Dialogue with Catholic Church - check

Thanks president Fillon!

Ok I know this isn't entirely true. Macron ran on economic reforms anyway so that shouldn't be a surprise, and they still are less far-reaching than Fillon would have liked. But it's still funny .

[mvd10]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

[mvd10]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

[mvd10]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

I know the left doesn't like Macron, but surely the prospect of a Wauquiez presidency would terrify them? Besides, Wauquiez doesn't look popular at all. A lot can change during 4 years but as of this moment he has crashed even below Fillon's polling numbers.

[mvd10]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1063940777104076800

mon dieu

We always knew the French aren't particularly high energy

[mvd10]

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.

Seriously? He's got 4 more years. Literally all economists said that benefits from reforms wouldn't come within a few months. There is a decent chance his reforms work and unemployment is down significantly by 2022. Even if unemployment doesn't drop to 7% he might face relatively weak opponents again anyway. Le Pen is toxic and Mélenchon has his own issues. PS and LR still look f**ed. Macron probably isn't going to win 67% of the vote again, but writing him off now is rather bold.

[mvd10]

Right now he'd probably lose but again a reminder that the next election is in 3 years and 5 months. 3 years and 5 months ago Jeb! was leading the GOP primary polls, Clinton was squashing everyone in the general elections polls and everyone thought Trump would be Cain 2.0 or so. FFS, Macron himself only become a national politician 4 years ago. I really have to save some posts in case the economic situation improves, Macron doesn't have to do anything controversial in his last year and he faces (and beats) a weak opponent in 2022 despite not being that popular. I actually still think that is the most likely scenario as of now.