2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Zaybay]

My Rankings, as of July 20th(will update when important events occur, polling is released, or a large gap of time has occurred)

[Zaybay]

Is this the best case scenario for the Dems? https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=745

If this was truly a best case, Baker would be overwhelmed by partisanship and deserted by Conservatives, leaving a Dem as Governor. Other than that, this is it!

[Zaybay]

My Rankings, as of July 26th



VT: Likely R -> Lean R
It seems that Phil Scott has been slipping in approvals, which is the only reason many R Blue State Governors are winning in the first place. The Dem field is still rather weak, but if Phil cant maintain a solid approval, any Dem will be able to walk over him.

MN: Likely D -> Safe D
With Walz catching back up to the lead against Swanson, Im moving this to Safe D. The scandals Swanson was suffering from were the only think keeping this at likely D, and with the rise of Walz, it appears MN may avoid this. Of course, if Walz loses, I move this back to Likely D. Then again, Tim Pawlenty is a really weak candidate, so it might be Safe D no matter what.

WI: Tossup -> Lean D
I was waiting for the MC approval numbers and Marist polls to come out before I decided where to move this state, and it seems the Ds will be gaining for this entire update. Walker has suffered from moderately unpopular approvals and the drag that occurs when you are governor for too long. To compound that, WI has been moving the most against Trump in both specials and court elections. The Marist poll was really just the icing on the cake.

[Zaybay]

My rankings, as of August 9th




KS: Lean R -> Tossup

I think everyone knows why I moved this. Kobach will be the R candidate in the state, and that moves the race to tossup. Hes just so unlikable, and doing so poorly in polling, that Kelly, the Dem, now has a chance to turn the state Blue. The only wildcard here is Orman, and what he does. He ran aligned with the Dems in the past, but now, hes taking a centrist stance, even getting an R as his LT. Its possible that he siphons votes from Kelly, but he could also siphon votes from Kobach from R voters who dont want to vote D, but hate him. This will be an interesting race, to say the least.

[Zaybay]

Excellent analysis, guys, keep it up! This is the kind of intellectual, sensible, thorough, hard-hitting, thought-provoking analysis that makes this forum so great. You’re not on the same level as Charlie Cook yet, but getting close.

[Zaybay]

Okay, it's time for a big update!

On the one hand, Arizona and Oklahoma move to Tossup on account of the matchups being pretty good for Democrats. Garcia won in Arizona, and Stitt won in Oklahoma. On the other hand, Florida moves to Leans R due to Graham losing the primary.

So now we have seven tossups. Holy Stitt. Just for the sake of cleaning up the category, I'll move two races out of the tossup column that I don't actually think are tossups: Iowa, with its massive special election swings towards Democrats and its elasticity, will move to Tilts Democratic. Rhode Island, with its unpopular Democratic governor, moves to Tilts Republican.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, WI, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, OH, KS, OK, AZ

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
RI

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
TN, FL

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.7, R-8.2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

Oklahoma more likely to flip than Florida? Rhode Island at Tilt R? Lmao wtf is this

A poster putting way too much emphasis on percieved candidate quality.

[Zaybay]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Hubbel has actually lead in the only poll so far, but it was a private poll, done by the Des Moins Register. Its why Sabato moved it all the way from likely R to tossup. I heard it gave Hubbel a double digit lead. And IA is more swingy and Reynolds doesnt have the advantage of incumbency.

Personally, I would move MI and WI one step up each.

[Zaybay]

Finally, I’m removing the “might be competitive in the future” clause entirely from the Safe ratings. Now that primary season is over, Safe is Safe. With that, some of the Safe ratings I had previously no longer belong there without that caveat. There were three states that had it: Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Vermont. PA can stay where it is due to the overwhelming polling advantage he has and the strength of the national environment in the state. However, Vermont moves down to Likely due to a clause that allows the legislature to choose the Governor if no majority is reached on election day, which gives Phil Scott a potential lose condition. As for Idaho, there’s enough uncertainty in that race for me to be uncomfortable giving it a perfectly certain rating, so down to Likely it goes as well.

That is seriously a really dumb law.

[Zaybay]

MI moves from Lean D to Likely D because of polling, FL moves from Toss-Up to Lean D because of polling and my desire to trigger Atlas right now, and NH moves from Lean R to Toss-Up because of the outcome of the D primary.

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7) : GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (5): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

Sununu hasn't trailed in a single poll..

your right, instead, he has declined 15 points from June to August. And, unlike in MA, he doesnt have the popularity to survive. Also, the D turnout was really crazy in NH.

[Zaybay]

Its been a long time since I posted my gubernatorial ratings, and its been so long, so I will start from scratch.

These are my ratings, 9/13/18

I will be using 270, as its easier to see lean, likely and Solid.

There will be no tilts in this map.

With tossups:


Without tossups(gun to my head):



I will update these as more polls come out and as we get closer to election day.