Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thus the "Back up assertion" bit. I'm not doubting it's truth so much as why people come about to that said truth. I don't claim any knowledge because I have little knowledge in that field, but then again neither do our TDs really.

This is thing most people have been told this is truth for so long without really doubting it; once the "Back up the assertion" bit comes up it all falls down - as if you have touched some taboo subject.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I aim to please.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, you see - now you understand, even if it is vaguely correct (or really, not the whole story) - the question is, how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

No idea.

I certainly didn't know anything about economics before college, and that alone was a significant factor in deciding to do the subject to degree level ahead of other areas I have an interest in but felt I wasn't going to gain a whole lot from.

Strongly agree.

You see I'm not doubting the story that the EU is responsible for Ireland's growth; just that the way it is presented (without question) is just totally wrong.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That 'responsible for' comment was just laziness.

But if you present these things in a way which is boring and confusing (which it often is) then it won't be surprising if the public reacts with boredom and confusion. That's the problem with politics in the western world right now - too much meaningless talk, not enough meat.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which is partially why the debate is being muzzled.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That letter in the Economist is only somewhat true as it assumes that in democracy like Western Europe it is inevitable that speech will be cheapened by political leaders. Rather in the west political affairs are made abstract from the day to day affairs of living which leads to such abuses of language (well, that's not all of it of course. But I'm not bothered to do a lengthy explanation right now) while in the Warsaw Pact states it was opposite - one was made aware of the state and it's ideological role every single day from one's first breath.

Hey I've finally achieved something.. My "Keltic Tigah" is catching on. Hmm.. Better copyright it first.

As for my username, it means nothing really. I just felt it was amusing and I wanted a change from being Ignatius Reilly.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ireland's never been United under "native" rule, unless you count the Rule of high king Brian Boru (1002-1014); but he was really more of a weak Feudal type monarch in an island with no sense of central authority; that idea came from the British.

It is therefore a deeply unirish idea that should have been soundly rejected after independence.

Strongly Agree btw.

EDIT: Not to mention that alot of what is considered "Irish Culture" was pretty much invented on the spot as a response to British rule. Prior to the coming of the Normans or hell even up to the Cromwellian invasion and the Counter-Reformation (out of which out "Irishness" grew) the cultural, linguistic and economic life of say, a man living in Waterford would just be as alien to say someone living Donegal as the "English way of life" was; if not more so.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Go Fine Gael!

No.

I'm bored so I'll try and figure out what that would be like with the new constituency boundaries (Nearly impossible because you can never tell where the next Jackie Healy-Rae or Boyd Barrett will be; plus of course personal votes and like. But as I said I am bored.)

I'll do my heartland:
DUBLIN SOUTH: The increase in the Green vote is very, very interesting - doubling from the election (almost) I suspect that nationally the Green vote is levelling out enough so that it will probably do better in the sticks than in 2002 but much less well in Dublin; though perhaps DS would not be the worst constituency for them in this regard. At the level of the poll Ryan would easily be elected again; as would both FG members and at least one from FF. Battle between FF and Labour for the final seat. So, 2FF 2FG 1GREEN (Status Quo; but in such a scenario things would depend alot on transfers and it is hard to believe that labour won't win a seat here with 13% nationally given that they probably would have won one this time except for the distaster that was the two candidate strategy.)

DUN LAOGHAIRE: Lost a seat and some of it's most poshest areas to DS in the last re-distrubtion (you can have Foxrock back, thanks) this makes the Green situation nearly impossible but also extremely difficult for FF to hold onto Barry Andrews' seat with those types of scores (it was considered under threat before the election though and then he came only a few hundred votes short at the second count). And what about a potential Labour leader bounce. So, 2FF 1FG 1LAB would still seem the most likely. But perhaps DL will return to it's FG roots in the future..*shrugs*

DUBLIN SOUTH EAST: A nearly impossible task to predict the richest (mostly) seat in the country and one which not by concidence imo (despite what some people think) one of the areas with the lowest FF votes. Anyway with those sorts of scores FF would probably lose here quite, quite horribly badly. Gormley (Green) would top the poll; but where would McDowell's first vote go (maybe to FF; but that is not the historic correlation despite the coalitions.) Anyway I'd go with the Status Quo; though possibly a second FG gain from FF. (So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST: Again Status quo looks the more likely as the Sinn Fein vote has remained very static since the election. Hard to see an opportunity for a second FG or Labour seat. Yet Leninhan is vulnerable as may be O'Connor. (So, FF 2, FG 1, LAB 1)

DUBLIN MID WEST: This monument to horrible suburban sprawl, complete lack of planning and the (unbelievably) corrupt FF local government in Dublin of the 1980s is another "god knows" constituency. Again a low FF vote; though the PDs still hold here Harney is retiring in 2012 (apparently) and with FG's numbers it's almost impossible to imagine them not taking a seat here which they came close to winning; I could see this being a place where a sitting Green TD will fall flat on his face come 2012 but assuming national swings *shrugs* (There is a possibility btw that Joe Higgins will move down here; personally I could extremists doing well in this seat so it's possible alright. Potential SF target too) So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL: Surely Michael Mulcahy (FF-DSC) can't continue to do f all for five years and still be re-elected? Labour have good numbers and so do Sinn Fein and with those numbers labour would probably gain off FF; though I would not rule out a Gay Mitchell comeback. Which of course dramatically everything (though I suspect C. Byrne the sitting FG TD here is pretty safe.) funny constituency really. FF 1 FG 1 LABOUR 2 SF 1

So that would be: FF 9(-1), FG 7(+1), LAB 6(+1), GREEN 3(-1; but only due to seat change), SF 1.

Which all seems depressingly status quo despite great percentage shifts; though North Dublin is likely to be much more interesting really; especially with Bertie Retiring.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Go Fine Gael!

Trust me, you don't really support Fine Gael. They're not any different from Fianna Fail in any way that a non-Irishman would appreciate. (And my impression is that neither of our two Irish posters appreciates the "difference", either.)

Now that depends, how long have you got?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually believe or not that would actually depend on what area of the country I live in; though where I live in I most certainly prefer FG to FF. Even if one of our local FG TDs is hopelessness personified.

Though in saying that if I lived in somewhere like say Cork South West I would not vote for Fianna Fail o\c I would either a) just vote for labour\greens or More likely b) scribble all over the ballot paper and leave a giant penmark leaving the words HIV\AIDS with a giant "1" to the right of it on the paper.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now where does one begin with this...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

HP.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was going to 'yes': but then I couldn't think of any member of FF which I ever consider giving a preference to. Certainly none of the cabinet anyway.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's better. . Anyway you are registered in Cavan\Monaghan so that's understandable; as the only alternative is SF.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would go along with something like this; the latter bit was certainly true during the last two FG led governments (Yes such things actually existed once!) under Bruton and Fitzgerald.

In general I would say that Fianna Fail ideology, though that term is itself rather misleading, is "Ireland - ism", to put it more clearly what I mean I will quote some guy I once read in the newspaper and can't recall his name "There is nothing wrong with Ireland that isn't wrong with Fianna Fail. And there is nothing wrong with Fianna fail that isn't wrong with Ireland" ever since Dev its vision has been one of "Progressive 'realist' (ie. Status quo) nationalism, it's objective is to strengthen the nation and the process help out all the special interest groups which form the party (actually wait a minute that should be the other way round.) - in the American sense I would say it is favour more of "bigger government" and more "populist" than FG: not that it really matters with the FG-LAB alliance of neccesity.

Or to keep it short, FF shifts when the nation shifts; In the 1930s it was protectionist nationalism mixed with a moderate form of corporatism, in the 1960s it was a more internationalist approach as the world outside was beginning to be revealed (though not for many FF supporters I believe!) and started to remove all the trade barriers and liberalize the economy - but keep many of the most corporatist aspects. In the 1980s it was denial of reality and in the 2000s it is now neo-liberalism though keeping the more populist aspects to support the special interests.

FG on the other hand is the party of big farmers, horribly posh South Dublinites and local small town aristocrats who had to choose between becoming a TD and running Daddy's business (often being a TD IS Daddy's business - but this is true for both parties) and here Jas is right; FG is much more pro-Europe in the sense that is somewhat ideological as opposed "OMG IT wILL BE GOOD FOR TEH ECONOMEEEEEEE!!!111. FG is a much middle class party than FF - the constituencies it does best in - Cork South West, Dublin SE, Dublin S, Dun Laoghaire, Kildare and Meath (though the latter few are really just historically) are more "middle class" than their worst seats such as Dublin North west; which despite FF governments constantly fucking them over vote for FF or occasionally Labour or SF - if that is they vote at all. (Unsurprisingly in Ireland there is a strong link between voter turnout and class - though all things Ireland and class related that should be put with a warning beside it.)

So yeah I'd say what Jas said was pretty accurate. Though I'd say the previous problems of Fianna Fail and coalitions mainly has to do with FF not needing one and Albert Reynolds' being an arrogant twonk (no surprise there).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Unfortunely last night while I was continuing my fruitless endavours my guesswork at the what the election would look like with those poll results my connection got wiped out and has only been restored now. And I worked hard on explaining on the seats.

To be lazy and do no explaination it would look like this assuming all the independents like McGrath, Gregory, et al still decide to run:
North Dublin:
DUBLIN NORTH (4) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP (LAB gain from FF)
DUBLIN WEST (4) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC (SOC gain due to redistrubtion)
DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF; but more likely to be an SF gain but not on those poll numbers.)
DUBLIN NORTH EAST(3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (no change)
DUBLIN CENTRAL (4) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND (FG gain from FF)
DUBLIN NORTH CENTRAL (3) - 1FF 1FG 1IND (no change)
KILDARE NORTH (4) - Murphy gains from FF if she runs; if not no change - 2FF 1FG 1LAB (no change)
KILDARE SOUTH (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)
MEATH EAST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (LAB gain from FF - In saying that some of the major Labour voting areas have been moved into Louth around the Drogheda suburbs; Either way FF loses one and either FG or LAB gains)
MEATH WEST (3) - 2FF 1FG (No change though possible SF gain here)
LOUTH (5) - 2FF 2FG 1SF (FG gain due to redistrubtion)
WICKLOW (5) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP (GP gain from FF)
WEXFORD (5) - 2FF 2FG 1LAB (no change; I think)
CARLOW-KILKENNY (5) - 2FF 2FG 1GP (FG gain from FF)
LAOIS-OFFALY (5) - With Cowan Taoiseach? 3FF 2FG (no change)
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)
CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5) - 2FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF due to the removal of O'Hanlon as CC.)
DONEGAL SOUTH WEST (3) - 2FF 1FG (no change; but possible SF gain from FF)
DONEGAL NORTH EAST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1SF (SF gain from FF)
SLIGO-NORTH LEITRIM (3) - 1FF 2FG (FG gain from FF)
ROSCOMMON-SOUTH LEITRIM (3) - 1FF 2FG (no change)
MAYO (5) - 2FF\FF("IND), 3FG (no change, at least in seats per party anyway.)
GALWAY WEST (5) - 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP (GP gain from FF - Counting Grealish as FF.)
GALWAY EAST (4) - 2FF 2FG (no change)
CLARE (4) - 2FF 2FG (no change)
TIPPERARY NORTH (3) - 1FF 1FG 1IND (no change)
TIPPERARY SOUTH (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (LAB gain from FF; depends on whether or not Healy runs again.)
WATERFORD (4) - 2FF 1FG 1LAB (no change)
CORK EAST (4) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)
CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)
CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (5) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP (GP gain from FF)
CORK SOUTH WEST (3) - 1FF 2FG (no change)
CORK NORTH WEST (3) - 1FF 2FG (FG gain from FF)
KERRY SOUTH (3) - 2FF 1FG (FG gain from IND due to O'Donaghue being CC)
KERRY NORTH & LIMERICK WEST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1SF (No change from Kerry North; would probably result in a different FF TD though)
LIMERICK (3) - 1FF 2FG (FG gain from FF if using the old Limerick West boundaries)
LIMERICK CITY (4) - 2FF 1FG 1LAB (FG lose seat due to boundary changes; otherwise no change.)

So that leaves: FF\PD 60 (-20) FG 65 (+14) LAB 25 (+5) SF 5 (+1) GP 7 (+1) SOC 1 (+1) IND 3 (-1)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Coalitions make things (slightly) more accountable; so I think saying Haughey, Cowen, et al are opposed to them is the stating the obvious just a little bit.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Coalitions make things (slightly) more accountable; so I think saying Haughey, Cowen, et al are opposed to them is the stating the obvious just a little bit.

Ah, but then explain Ahern's pro-coalition stance!

(Check!)

Because we all know at heart Bertie is just a cheeky chappy from Drumcondra; a court jester so to speak. No matter what he does he is just good ol' Bertie, always one of the lads; so even if he killed live puppies with acid in front of crippled orphans he would still always be loved. Cowen on the other hand looks like the aul' fellow at the back of the pub who always watches the TV in order to shout out "Wat 'tis dis sh**te on de Tellleeeeee!" and look permantently annoyed.

Therefore as long as Bertie sounds like "one of the lads" then he can bypass the whole accountability thing. Cowen can't.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Coalitions make things (slightly) more accountable; so I think saying Haughey, Cowen, et al are opposed to them is the stating the obvious just a little bit.

Ah, but then explain Ahern's pro-coalition stance!

(Check!)

Because we all know at heart Bertie is just a cheeky chappy from Drumcondra; a court jester so to speak. No matter what he does he is just good ol' Bertie, always one of the lads; so even if he killed live puppies with acid in front of crippled orphans he would still always be loved.

What if he killed live orphans with acid in front of crippled puppies?

Five point boost in the points - Twenty points in Meath. Those Damn Orphans are probably scobes (scumbags) anyway; what with their poor, cheap clothes and working class accents.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yeah that Cavan\Monaghan and Kerry South predictions were brain farts (or perhaps wishing thinking, who knows?).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The whole South East is bad at it.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Best. Blog. Post. EVER

http://thatsireland.com/2007/11/05/fianna-fails-fifty-ways-to-laugh-at-voters/#more-677

P.S: Support Digout Day! (see sig)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Best. Blog. Post. EVER

http://thatsireland.com/2007/11/05/fianna-fails-fifty-ways-to-laugh-at-voters/#more-677

P.S: Support Digout Day! (see sig)

Mmm...

Seems to me the voters are happy enough to laugh along...the vast majority of the matters in the list were well known prior to the election and yet FF were returned with roughly the same proportion of votes as last time.

To me, the more interesting side to all this is not that FF have been involved in all this, but that the voters have implicitly accepted the behaviour and/or FF's response to it.

I never said they didn't. As a matter of fact that is what I have always maintained. Haven't I quoted it before "There is nothing wrong with Fianna Fail that isn't wrong with Ireland, and there isn't anything wrong with Ireland that isn't wrong with Fianna Fail"?

I just found the link Amusing.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I actually tend to agree with that second bit. Actually I reckon the tone of blog is at times so very shrill it reminds people of what is so common about a certain crowd of Irish political commentators who seem to exist to remind people of their own self-importance (not that this blogger nor more Importantly, I - am ever that shrill. ). Just a needed reminder.

Btw, what gives your assertion that politics is much more clean than 20 years ago? (Not hard it has to be said.) Apart from the fact that we all KNOW that corruptions is going on\has gone on and o\c the laborious tribunals. 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

@Jas: Did you read the Tribune on Sunday? In particular the article on the relationship between Albert Reynolds, John Ellis (Ex-FF TD for Leitrim) and Pakistan?

There was a whole section of articles dedicated to attacking to FF. And while it was typically sensationalistic, I have to say if half the stuff there is true...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

@Jas: Did read the Tribune on Sunday. In particular the article on the relationship between Albert Reynolds, John Ellis (Ex-FF TD for Leitrim) and Pakistan?

There was a whole section of articles dedicated to attacking to FF. And while it was typically sensationalistic, I have to say if half the stuff there is true...

Long time since I went to the bother of getting a Sunday paper (it's not hard to be disenchanted at the choice on offer)...so, no 'fraid I know nothing of the Turbine's reportage of late...but do feel free to enlighten.

I tend to agree with you on Sunday papers; even The Sunday Times isn't much; except the Culture section and Brian Appleyard. I read this just yesterday when I was in the NUIM library skiving off studying preparing for some work.

Found it here:

[Quote]THE name of Fianna Fail does not trip lightly off everyday conversation in downtown Karachi.

They have enough political intrigue of their own in Pakistan to occupy the chattering salons, what with the Supreme Court being emasculated and the media decimated under emergency rule.

But, in the week when president Pervez Musharraf finally climbed out of his general's uniform, Fianna Fail's links with the south Asian nuclear power grew ever more fascinating.

"I haven't been in Pakistan for a lifetime nearly, " replied the Taoiseach's Seanad nominee John Ellis, when asked about his directorship of a nowdefunct bank in Karachi. In response to an enquiry if Albert Reynolds had ever told him about Reynolds' history-making relationship with Musharraf, Ellis asked: "No. Why would he?"

"Because you're friends."

"It's still being said that we're very close friends. That's newspapers for you . . . tomorrow's fish 'n' chips. We would be political friends. That'd be the height of it, " said the Leitrim senator.

"We're neighbours as well. Our counties are beside each other and I've a lot of his relations living near me."

In recent radio interviews on RTE and Today FM, former Taoiseach Albert Reynolds recounted his kingmaking role in extolling Musharraf 's credentials to an initially hostile White House after a bloodless military coup in Pakistan in 1999.

"A business associate of mine invited me to travel there, to go and see him [Musharraf ] and to talk about becoming his consultant, his advisor, " said Reynolds, who was still a TD for Longford-Westmeath at the time of these events. According to the former Fianna Fail leader, he rang US president Bill Clinton on his private phone and arranged to meet him in Washington. At that meeting, Reynolds assured Clinton that, despite a US policy of not supporting leaders of coups d'etat, Musharraf could be trusted.

He said that on the night of 9/11, Musharraf rang Reynolds at his home in Dublin and asked him to inform the US that he would be "their number-one supporter". On another occasion, the Pakistani dictator invited the former Taoiseach to broker peace in Kashmir and, though that exercise was not realised, Clinton's successor, George W Bush, refers to Musharraf as "my buddy" to this day.

Reynolds said he has travelled to Pakistan three times. He was the Irish government's delegate to an international donors' conference in the capital, Islamabad, in November 2005, after a 7.6-magnitude earthquake in the north of the country the previous month.

Five-star Sheraton Hotel He returned six months later, in May 2006, to deliver a speech entitled 'Competitiveness Strategies: Lessons Learned from Ireland' at a conference organised by the Pakistani government and financed by the US Agency for International Development. He was made honorary chairman of the Ireland-Pakistan Business Council when it was launched in Dublin in November 2005. In an address to the council in November last year, Reynolds described Musharraf as "a courageous person" who deserved to be at the helm of Pakistan.

Pakistan is the sixth most populous country on earth, with the world's second-largest Muslim population. Not the sort of place one expects to bump into a distant neighbour from back home. But at the time of Reynolds' first trip to the country . . . the one when he was introduced to Musharraf . . . another Fianna Fail backbencher was already a frequent visitor to Karachi.

Farmer and failed meat-factory owner John Ellis was a founding director of Indus Bank, a private bank established in the Peshawar province in 1992.

(continued...)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Here is the rest...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A little Dubious no doubt (why would Musharraf call Reynolds, of all people, after 9\11?) but still...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The PDs will merge will Fianna Fail before the next election, so it is written. (Except that maybe one or two of them will go over to Fine Gael... but who out of the decimated Parliamentary party would do that now like Parlon and O'Donnell (thankfully!) are gone.)

Meanwhile having looked over some the Sunday papers down here in Kildare in the Local Dunnes, did you know OMG SOME WOMAN DIED!1111?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Unfortunely the Computers at NUIM shut down at 10.. which gives me 3 minutes to post a reply.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can't disagree with that.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually I'm very aware (I think) of what lies behind all this.. but in order to explain what see me consuming more time than I already have.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

Yay! Drlcoco related stuff. Actually hard to believe that she is\was the last PD on the council; really the signs were there from the local elections onwards.

Now makes Fianna Fail's life in opposition more difficult. Not that I have a particular fondness for our local council.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

Yay! Drlcoco related stuff. Actually hard to believe that she is\was the last PD on the council; really the signs were there from the local elections onwards.

Now makes Fianna Fail's life in opposition more difficult. Not that I have a particular fondness for our local council.

New Dún Laoighaire - Rathdown Council Composition:
FG 10; FF 7; Lab 6; Green 4; Ind 1

I presume that's been a solid FG/Lab coalition since the election.

Aye. Aye. Though that really should be FG-led council with labour dragging up the rear.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

As part of the series of reasons as to why I feel Enda Kenny would be a travesty as Taoiseach is his obsession with the idea of random drug testing.

In Leader's Questions last week, he suggested random drug testing for students; today FG put out a press release calling for random drug testing for nightclub patrons:
"Gardaí should mount random searches of customers outside known nightclubs and pubs in order to root out cocaine use."

There's times when I think he's not much better than the political equivalent of Steve Staunton.

Indeed. Though really he is a small town lawyer living in a bubble that he believes to be The West wing but with added Michael Ring.