What happens in 2024 if... (Abrams/Ojeda)

[aaroncd107]

2018: Democrats win the House with 230 or so seats, including Richard Ojeda from WV. The Senate is 50-50 but effectively 50-49 in favor of the Democrats because of John McCain, who holds on until December of 2019. Democrats gain NV, AZ, and TN, while losing IN and ND. Democrats now have 27 out of 50 governerships, including Stacey Abrams in Georgia.

2020: Democrats nominate Harris/Brown against Trump/Pence, whose approval ratings are around 45-47 percent. Trump narrowly wins, with NV, AZ, NE-02, WI, and MI flipping.  Democrats net 4 seats in the Senate, gaining CO, GA, MT, NC. and WV. Jones loses AL despite having 55 percent approval ratings. Richard Ojeda is the new Senator from West Virginia. Democrats win ~240 seats in the House.

2021: Trump is impeached, and a recession starts a month after Pence takes office. The economy suffers horribly, and signs of a blue tsunami appear as a Democrat wins in the special election for VP Noem's congressional seat in SD. Murphy and Gillespie each win re-election by about 25 points.

2022: The recession worsens as the DOW drops below 16000 and unemployment hits 15 percent. The Democrats win ~290 seats in the House due to redistricting in key states like Georgia, combined with a double digit popular vote win. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's progressive caucus holds 138 seats and she becomes the youngest Speaker of the House in US history. Democrats gain 10 senate seats and just miss a veto-proof majority, making gains in AZ, FL, GA, IA, IN, MO, NC, OH, PA, WI. (if you have questions about candidates, please ask). Stacey Abrams wins re-election healthily, 55-45.

2024: Stacey Abrams wins handily versus senators Sherrod Brown, Pete Buttigieg, and Tulsi Gabbard in the Democratic primary, and chooses WV sen. Richard Ojeda to be her running mate. Pence, with a dismal 19 percent approval rating, has done nothing to help the economy and loses a dozen states versus Rand Paul in the primary. Unemployment is around 16 percent. America is headed for a realignment.

What does the electoral college map look like, and how realistic is this scenario?

This is my prediction:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/LWrEA
Abrams plays FDR here, finally bringing rural voters back under the Democrat's wing when they realize how screwed over they were by the Trump tariffs. Black turnout spikes, and Democrats hold suburban white voters that were friendly to them during the Trump administration.

[Lord Admirale]

As much as I like Ojeda, he's too pro-coal to be on a Dem ticket. I think he'd piss off too many environmentalists and we could see another Nader-esque Green Party candidate.

[wesmoorenerd]

I like it! Well not the part where the economy collapses, that doesn't sound fun. But a few things:

1. I really see no scenario in which Trump gets his approval ratings up to 45-47 percent. Let's face it, he has a ceiling and that's above it. He's alienated too much of the country for him to be that popular.

2. When you say NV, AZ, NE-02, WI, and MI flip, are you saying that NV will flip from Clinton to Trump? I don't see that happening, especially if AZ is going for Harris considering the similar demographics. In fact, if all the states you mentioned except NV do end up flipping, Harris would win with 270 electoral votes.

3. Gillespie isn't the Governor of Virginia, Northam is. Even if Gillespie was the Governor of Virginia,  Virginia has a one-term term limit, so he couldn't run again.

4. Ocasio-Cortez will have only been in the House for four years, so I really doubt she gets elected Speaker. The Progressive Caucus has more experienced and equally progressive options if they're looking for a good Speaker.

5. Clearly Buttigieg ran in Indiana, but who ran in Missouri? Kander?

6. Lmao please tell me Tulsi got crushed in the Dem primary

7. If the Electoral College really looks like that, the economy is going to have to be in even worse shape than you describe. Unemployment would have to be higher, with that kind of wave people would be hurting bad.

8. If you subscribe to the "presidential cycle" theories that surface every so often in this forum, whoever comes after Trump/Pence has a good chance of ushering in a new political era, akin to how FDR and Reagan did when they got elected. If Stacey in Abrams got elected President and started that new realignment I would be absolutely overjoyed. She's literally the best

9. I sorta feel like that kind of powerhouse coalition would be too powerful and too big to be sustainable. I mean, rural voters, black voters, suburban white voters, plus I'm assuming they held on to Hispanic voters and college educated whites? That's pretty much the whole country right there.

But overall I like the scenario a lot. Definitely rough for America in the short term, but in the long term the prospects would be looking quite good.

[aaroncd107]

1. I was just fudging his numbers to make a close election more likely
2. I’ve always thought it would be interesting if NV flipped back one more time before becoming a solid D state, and I do subscribe to the idea that it’s underestimated as a swing state on Atlas. That said, Harris probably would have won it IOTL. I probably should have subbed it for NH.
3. I wrote this at 1am. Stupid mistake ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
4. Again, dumb mistake. I love Ocasio-Cortez and I think I wanted to put someone in who is progressive to show signs of the nat’l shift as well as within the party, and someone who is popular with the people (as Pelosi certainly isn’t).
5. Kander! The opportunist we all know and love finally gets his big break before finishing a full term as Kansas City mayor.
6. Yes, Tulsi dropped out after NH. Buttigieg gave up after Super Tuesday but Brown fought until he was narrowly beaten in Ohio.
7. Fudging numbers again I’m only 17, so I don’t really remember what it was like back during the ‘08 recession.
8. That’s what I was going for! Glad you picked up on that.
9. Abrams didn’t win rural voters or suburban whites, but improved with both groups dramatically. Suburban turnout was slightly dampened. By rural, too, I meant the farm vote. I think Ojeda being on the ticket worked wonders for her, on account of racism.