Why is Obama coming to PA

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

Obviously, Obama feels that, at this point, he only needs to increase turnout in the Philly area to safely carry the state.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

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Obviously, if he's ahead by double digits he wouldn't have to.  That's been my point.

TV ad spending: 10/13-10/19  Yes, it's Kos, but he gets the numbers from TNS Media Intelligence.

Withdrawing from a state while your opponent carpet-bombs it in the last few weeks is a good way to lose even a double digit lead.  The smart move is to drown your opponent's main thrust with your own overwhelming cash advantage, which is what Obama is doing.  It's a big reason why this election is over.  McCain/RNC can't drown out Obama's message in the last couple of weeks for a last ditch come-from-behind victory.  Obama has the cash to not only match them, but to overwhelm them in any state they attack.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

Do you have a link?

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Obviously, if he's ahead by double digits he wouldn't have to.  That's been my point.

TV ad spending: 10/13-10/19  Yes, it's Kos, but he gets the numbers from TNS Media Intelligence.

Withdrawing from a state while your opponent carpet-bombs it in the last few weeks is a good way to lose even a double digit lead.  The smart move is to drown your opponent's main thrust with your own overwhelming cash advantage, which is what Obama is doing.  It's a big reason why this election is over.  McCain/RNC can't drown out Obama's message in the last couple of weeks for a last ditch come-from-behind victory.  Obama has the cash to not only match them, but to overwhelm them in any state they attack.

No, you can just keep up the carpet bombing, if you have the bombs; Obama does, at least according to those public polls.  It is a smart move to keep up the pressure, but not waste a day in a state where you are suppose to be in double digits.  My guess is, PA is much closer than we're being led to believe.

You're right about one thing.  It's a complete guess because there's absolutely no evidence of it.

So if your opponent decides to base his final big push on stealing away Pennsylvania, you would not spend much time there, since you're already up double digits in the polls?  I'm certainly glad you're not advising the Obama campaign.

[Firefly]

Well, again, I'm glad you're not advising the Obama campaign.  It's obvious to me why Obama is doing it, and it has nothing to do with some super-double-secret-Pennsylvania-polling-formula.  Obama seemingly spending his time there rallying the base actually makes perfect sense if he's already up big there.  He doesn't need to convince anyone else in the state to vote for him.  He just needs to keep his supporters energized to hold off any possible McCain comeback in the final couple of weeks.