Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

Yomiuri  poll

Abe approval 43(-7)/46(+7)

PR vote

LDP     34
KP        6
JRP       2
HP      19
LP         1
SDP      1
JCP      5


Back in 2014 before the election it was

Abe Approval/Disapproval 49/42

LDP    41
DPJ    14
KP       6
JIP      5

Result was LDP-KP at 46.82%.

If LDP-KP falls a few % from 2014 and HP picks up most the rest (a big if, undecided could go back to LDP) then LDP-KP might get a nasty surprise election night.

[jaichind]

With Yomiuri  Abe approval under water again

[jaichind]

DP MP 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) who was Maehara's opponent in the recent DP leadership race is the de facto leader of the DP Left.  He seems to be trying to organize a bunch of DP Left MPs that will all run as independents and if enough of them win they can form a party after the election to represent the Non-JCP Center-Left.

[jaichind]

Looks like JCP and SDP will form an alliance and have seat adjustments with joint candidates.  I am sure on a case by case basis they will also support DP Left MPs running for re-election.

[jaichind]

Most seats sounds like will become

LDP vs HP (or HP backed ex-DP Ind.) vs JCP
LDP vs JRP vs JCP
LDP vs SDP (or Left DP ind) (backed by JCP)
LDP vs JCP

It seems that HP will work if possible to avoid 2 non-LDP non-JCP candidates running at once.

If most seats avoid having 2 non-LDP non-JCP candidates then LDP might be in trouble and will lose a bunch of seats.

[FredLindq]

What is JRP a new outfit off Iniativees for Osaka? And has DPJ completly merged into Koikes new party? Why? Woild not DPJ stand a good chance? Is Koikes new party changing into a more centrist position now? As I have understood it has been fairly conservstive or?

[jaichind]

Mainichi chart on Koike's summit 3 governors (for an anti-LDP front)



Points out Osaka Governor and JRP leader 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) cooperates with Abe from time to time but is hostile to DP.  DP is merging into Koike led HP.  And Matsui is forming alliances with both Koike and 愛知(Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki).

[jaichind]

The last time such a grand anti-LDP front is being formed was 2007 Upper House and 2009 Lower House elections where DPJ managed to rope in SDP as well as the postal reform LDP rebel parties (NPD, NPN and PNP).  From a PR vote point of view in 2007 this bloc beat LDP-KP 49.1-41.3 in 2007 and 49.8-38.2 in 2009 which set up defeats of LDP-KP in both years.  If HP can form tactical alliance with JRP-TCJ in Kinki and Aichi on the one hand as well as SDP-DP Left in seats which has a Leftist lean then LDP-KP could face significant losses.

The speed that Koike is putting all this together is quite impressive as long as it works on the ground.

[jaichind]

What is JRP a new outfit off Iniativees for Osaka? And has DPJ completly merged into Koikes new party? Why? Woild not DPJ stand a good chance? Is Koikes new party changing into a more centrist position now? As I have understood it has been fairly conservstive or?

JRP is merely renaming of ORA which split off from JIP in 2015.  JIP itself which without ORA are merely old DPJ and YP defectors anyway merged with DPJ to from DP to be part of the DP Right.  This bloc of ex-JIP but now DP MP will all certainly pass the HP ideological test and be able to run on HP ticket.

On why the DP Right leadership which is currently in charge of DP choose to merge their party into HP I wrote on this before.  It has to do with the DP/DPJ Right belief that LDP can only be beaten with a LDP schism that the DP/DPJ Right will merge with and defeat LDP once and for all.  Question has always been which variation of LDP splinters is that one true "The Party."

The reason 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) is doing what he is doing is because of a decades old DPJ/DP Right faction prophesy that deliverance will come in the form of a split in the LDP where a rebel LDP faction will unite with the DPJ/DP Right in a political realignment and defeat LDP once and for all while discarding Center-Left elements of DPJ/DP.  Then paradise will come with this united Center-Right LDP clone party taking the place of the LDP as the natural party of governance.  When YP and JRP were formed in 2009 and 2012 some in the DPJ/DP Right believed that those parties was the rebel LDP party promised by the prophesy and joined those parties.   But both turned out to false prophets.  It seems Maehara believes Koike's HP is that one true LDP rebel party that will bring balance to the political world and finally displace LDP and create a new LDP clone ruling party in its place.

[FredLindq]

So what kind off party does Ōmura Hidea belong to or is he into Koikes party? He is ex LDP or? Does JRP stand on its own or merging into Koikes party? What happened to the other revisionist party the Party for Japanese Kokoro?

[jaichind]

So what kind off party does Ōmura Hidea belong to or is he imto Koikes party? Does JRP stand on its own or mergong into Koikes party? What happened to the other revisionist party Party for Japanese Kokoro?

JRP at most tactical alliance with HP especially in places like 兵庫(Hyōgo) (where both DP and JRP have strength but only the sum of the two have chance to avoid a LDP clean sweep) in addition to 大阪(Osaka).  PJK's leadership have joined HP so I suspect that party is dead. 

[jaichind]

Koike's 3 Governor summit



It seems they have agreed on HP-JRP alliance in Tokyo and Osaka where in Osaka HP will back JRP in most seats and perhaps run in a seat or two with JRP backing.  The opposite in Tokyo.  In Osaka JRP historically also has a separate alliance with KP where it does not run against KP candidates.  I wonder if this deal covers those seats.  Also I wonder if HK will have a similar deal with KP in Tokyo. KP is an ally of JRP in Osaka at the prefecture level, same with HP in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

One of the reasons Koike is working with DP for a merger is that it cost around $30K deposit for each candidate that runs.  Ergo HP needs cash to run a significant number of candidates.  DP's merger (excluding various Left DP MPs) with HP not only gives it a DP candidate where HP has nothing, it also comes with Rengo support and more importantly, cash to pay this deposit.

It seems Rengo will back most DP candidates that will run under the HP banner but will also back DP candidates that does not join but go off on their own.  This is an implicit endorsement of the HP-DP merger. 

[FredLindq]

What about Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki) then?

[jaichind]

What about Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki) then?

No idea.  Will wait to find out more details.  Most likely an HP-TCJ-JRP alliance in Aichi.

[jaichind]

ex-DP and now HP MP 細野 豪志(Hosono Gōshi) was one of the first DP defectors that started the flood. 

Here he is in Sept 2015

Saying "There is no choice but to abolish the Security Law! The opposition bloc of DP-SDP-PLP-JCP will jointly fight this Law!"



Here he is yesterday Sept 2017 as a member of HP

"The Security Law should be kept in place"

[FredLindq]

TCJ?

[jaichind]

TCJ?

TCJ - Tax Cuts Japan.  It is a DPJ 愛知(Aichi) Right-wing Libertarian splinter.  It is pretty strong in Nagoya and is an ally of JRP since 2016.

[jaichind]

There are reports of disquiet within the ranks of the various local LDP branches on the news of DP-HP merger and now a HP-JRP alliance.  There are voices that pretty much saying "What have Abe done to us?  This could get bad."  It seems to be reaching levels that LDP leadership had to ask the local LDP branches to maintain discipline and stay united.

The Osaka branch of the LDP is also coming out demanding that Abe openly attack JRP now that JRP is forming an alliance with HP.  The Osaka branch of LDP is very hostile to JRP and would even ally with JCP to fight JRP.  By the same token Abe has always been fairly close to Hashimoto and JRP which is a source of conflict between Abe and the Osaka LDP.  The Osaka LDP is now pretty much saying "we cannot effectively fight this election unless Abe comes out swinging against JRP."

In the Tokyo LDP a sense of doom prevails as many predict a total wipe-out by HP now HP roped in both DP and JRP.

Of course to some extent this might be good for the LDP as there will be no complacency now but LDP might need to fight a high turnout election.

[jaichind]

Koike to collaborate with key Osaka politicians in election
Saturday, September 30, 2017 10:23 AM
OSAKA, Sept. 30 Kyodo
Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike said Saturday she has agreed with Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui that their political parties will cooperate in the Oct. 22 general election, a move that will raise pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition.
Under the agreement, Koike's recently launched Kibo no To (party of hope) will not field candidates in Osaka constituencies while the Japan Innovation Party, headed by Matsui, will refrain from doing so in Tokyo.
Koike held a press conference with Matsui and Aichi Gov. Hideaki Omura, who governs the area around Nagoya in central Japan, to announce they are sharing some policy goals including breaking away from nuclear power and revising the Constitution to expand the authority of local governments.
But the governors of the nation's three biggest prefectures said they will not run in the lower house election, campaigning for which will start Oct. 10.
Matsui said his and Koike's parties "are almost united in terms of policies," adding that his party will seek to elect lawmakers through proportional representation in Tokyo.
He also said he will not refrain from standing candidates in prefectures other than Tokyo and Osaka, and may compete with Koike's party in other parts of the country.
The lower house seats are contested through a mix of constituencies and proportional representation.
Their collaboration amounts to a united opposition front between Koike's party and the main opposition Democratic Party to challenge the dominance of the coalition led by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
Earlier in the week, the Democratic Party decided to effectively disband and merge with Kibo no To.

[Famous Mortimer]

Even the media can't keep up with the Hashists' name changes.

[jaichind]

Looks like PJK will continue on under the leadership of Upper House MP 中野 正志(Nakano Masashi) after PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) joined HP.  I doubt PJK will get more than 0.5% if it even bothers running.

[jaichind]

Even the media can't keep up with the Hashists' name changes.

I noticed that Kyodo refers to JRP still as Japan Innovation Party a few days ago as well.  I looked into this and it seems there is not official English name as JRP.

Here is JRP (2012-2014) wiki link in Japanese which has it "日本維新の会"
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%B6%AD%E6%96%B0%E3%81%AE%E4%BC%9A_(2012-2014)

and here is its English wiki link where it is called Japan Restoration Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Restoration_Party

But for the 2016 version of the party the link in Japanese it is still called "日本維新の会"
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%B6%AD%E6%96%B0%E3%81%AE%E4%BC%9A_(2016-)

but its English wiki link it is called "Nippon Ishin no Kai"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Ishin_no_Kai

which means it has no English name.  Ergo Kyodo figured "those foreigners won't keep up with stuff so lets just called it as Japan Innovation Party which is the name from 2014-2015 and call it a day."

BTW, here is the Japanese wiki link of the evolution of Japan's Third Pole parties since 2008

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Koike-campaign-joined-by-Osaka-Aichi-governors-for-October-election

It seems that Nikkei also refers to JRP as JIP.  In its English version of the "Three Governor" summit news.  Sigh.

[jaichind]

It seems as part of the HP-JRP alliance HP will not run any candidates in 兵庫(Hyōgo) and let JRP have a free hand there.  Might as well.  DP and JRP historically evenly split the anti-LDP vote there last couple of election cycles so LDP was going to have a clean sweep of the seats there anyway.  Might as well just back JRP across the board and see what happens.  Maybe JRP might pick up a seat or two.  A problem here is that HP already nominated a couple of candidates in Hyōgo already so I am not sure how they work this out.  I doubt these HP candidates would withdraw.