Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[jaichind]

How extreme is the PAS manifesto?

Really comes down to PAS's desire to install Hudud in states which it is the ruling party.  This is a deal breaker for DAP.

There are really two visions of opposition to BN. 

1) The DAP vision which is what is being tried out.   This mostly models on Sweden where two large blocs struggle for power and SD is consigned to the fringes.  DAP see PH as similar the the Sweden Center-Left (ethnic minorities (DAP), Malay liberalism (PKR), with elements of  Islamic liberalism (AMANAH) and soft Malay nationalism(PPBM) while BN represents a establishment Malay nationalist based Center-Right bloc.  PAS would be reduced to the fringes with barely double digit level of support and will go nowhere in a FPTP system which "risks" from DAP point of view of tactical alliance between the fringe party (PAS) and the Center-Right bloc (BN.)

2) The PAS vision of opposition to BN would more match pre-2009 Sri Lanka where two Sinhalese nationalist parties (UPFA and UNP) battle each other while the Tamil nationalist parties are marginalized.  So under PAS's vision it would be a PAS led Malay bloc of PAS PKR AMANAH and PPBM would face off with BN.  Both blocs are Malay based (one nationalist (BN) and one Isalmic (PAS+)) and DAP would represent a Chinese fringe that refuse to integrate into the mainstream Malay society and insist on ethnic minority headcount politics.  DAP under this model would win a few seats on super-Chinese majority areas but the two Malay blocs would battle and alternate in power.

The DAP vision is what is being tried out now.  If PH is beaten decisively PAS can make an argument, very legitimate in my view,  that the opposition should try its vision of opposition to BN.  PAS has demographics on its side.  The share of the population that is Malay is rising over time due to different birth rates.

[jaichind]

One feature that is missing this election cycle has the Israel factor.  Historically both BN and the Opposition has accused each other of being the puppets of Israel.  Anwar Ibrahim has claimed on many occasions that he being in jail is really a BN-Israel plot.  The Malay Opposition historically has been obsessed US Senator John McCain as a Dark Lord behind the scenes pushing Israel's agenda.  This time around with Mahathir in the Opposition camp both sides have mostly stopped using the Israel bogyman given Mahathir's strong record against Israel in the past and Mahathir's desire to make the case against BN on corruption.     

[jaichind]

So just to summarize the two  independent Peninsular Malaysia projections are

ILHAM Center:  PH 77   BN  56   PAS 7   PH/BN tossup 25
Merdeka Centre:  PH  76   BN 62  PAS 2   PH/BN tossup 23  BN/PAS tossup 2 

Lets assume that Borneo would be something like PH 12 BN 45  (a net loss of 3 for BN from 2013)

Both seems to indicate a very narrow majority for BN with a great deal of risk of hung parliament.  If there is a PH-WARISAN surge in Sabah then the BN majority disappears.

The election might come down to Sabah.

My projection so far is still Peninsular Malaysia  PH 81  BN 73  PAS 11.  In Borneo it is PH 11 BN 45 for the total result to be PH 92  BN  119   GS  11.  Same thing.   A surge in Sabah that swings 7-8 seats toward PH could create a hung parliament. 

[Oryxslayer]

^ And we really know absolutely nothing about it besides the fact that Sabah is competitive - various candidates and personalities spent significant chunks of time there. God I love these times when you are actually going in dark to an election and it can go any way - like in WV today as well.

[jaichind]

Voting starts 8am (8pm EST) and ends 5pm (5am EST.)  Turnout is expected to be around 85% which matches the record 2013 turnout.  If it ends up being 85% or higher that tend to be bad news for BN.  If turnout falls to 75% that tends to help BN.

I think all blocs will start to make claims of victory around 7pm (7am EST) with real results coming in around 7:30pm (7:30am EST).  Hopefully the picture will become clear by 10pm (10am EST).

[jaichind]

For the election eve speeches interest Mahathir clearly won over Razak.    At peak there were around   270K simultaneous viewer of Mahathir's speech at 10pm while Razak's speech at 10pm at peak ther were simultaneous 14K viewers.

Of course this could be 2015 Singapore election redux.  The opposition were clearly way ahead on social media and rallies but were crushed by a PAP GOTV election landslide election day.

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 3pm is 69%.  Back in 2013 when final turnout was a record 85% it was 70% as of 3pm.  It seems final turnout should be around 80%.  If so then this rate would be fairly neutral relative to how it affects BN vs PH.  If turnout falls to 75% then it is most likely advantage BN and if turnout exceeds 85% then it helps PH.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls close in 4 minutes...yes I woke up for this.

[jaichind]

Turnout numbers by state

Sabah - 67.49% as of 4.30pm.
Kelantan - 68% as of 3pm.
Kedah - 72% as of 3pm.
Perak 73.02% as of 4pm
Negeri Sembilan - 76.5% as of 3pm.
Pahang - 77.64% as of 4pm.
Malacca - 80% as of 4pm.

[jaichind]

Final prediction from me:

Peninsular Malaysia
         
BN    69    40.0%
PH    87    44.0%
GS     9    15.5%

Overall

BN   115   42.0%
PH     98   43.4%
GS      9    13.3%

Narrow BN victory.

[jaichind]

https://www.myundi.com.my/parliament

Seems like a good link to live results.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.myundi.com.my/parliament

Seems like a good link to live results.

Here a more 'utilitarian page' format with less flashy stuff that I am using right now:

http://live.undi.info/

[jaichind]

Voter turnout in PH stronghold Selangor as at 4:45pm is 76%.  That seems like a good fall from 2013 when turnout there was around 85%.  Relative poor sign for PH.

[jaichind]

Many polling stations still have long lines.  Looks like EC will keep a bunch of them open longer.

[jaichind]

Some early unofficial numbers out of Sarawak look pretty good for PH.  Namely in P209 Julau the pro-PH independent is ahead so far in a seat I figure BN should win by a good margin.   Same for P205   Saratok where PKR is ahead so far for a seat I had down as a BN win by a good margin.

[jaichind]

Sarawak P192   Mas Gading

So far it is DAP 5328  BN 4053.  Back in 2013 it was BN 8265 BN rebel 6109 DAP 5293.

If these unofficial numbers are true then this is a massive swing away from BN.

[jaichind]

Sarawak P209   Julau

So far it is PH backed ind (ex-SWP)  6317  BN  5324.  Back in 2013 it was BN 9891 SWP 3936 PKR 2852

Another massive swing away from BN

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout right now is thought to be a little above 76%, with people in the lines still it probably punches closer to 80 - so like you said, average turnout.

If these swings hold, we are probably in for some shocks as we get on to the peninsula.

[jaichind]

Sarawak P205   Saratok 

So far it is PKR 6623 BN 5527.  Back in 2013 it was BN 11600 PKR 9519. 

Small but still significant swing away from BN so far.

[jaichind]

Some Christians parts of Sarawak  look bad for BN so far.  Sarawak Muslim tribal areas votes are holding up for BN. 

[jaichind]

If I were BN I would be getting worried about the Christian parts of Sabah.

[jaichind]

Sarawak  P199   Serian  (Christian tribal seat)

So far it is BN 10974 DAP 4047.  Back in 2013 it was BN 19494 DAP 6343

Swing away from BN so far

[Oryxslayer]

PH up in Selangau, Mas Gading, Saratok, and the indie in Julau.

[jaichind]

There does seem to be a swing toward BN in Sarawak Chinese seats most likely due to the Mahathir factor.  I would then expect BN to pick up a seat or two this way.

[Oryxslayer]

1/222 Kalabakan called for UMNO/BN. No official numbers.

edit - 3/222 Baram and Tanjong Manis are in a similar position.