Maine Legislative (and other non-congressional) Redistricting

[jimrtex]

With the 2012 general election behind us, Maine's legislative redistricting is arguably the next big thiing in American politics.  Okay, I'm probably the only person who would argue that, and even I'm not being serious.  But I would very much enjoy others' comments on this.

Who does the redistricting?  In Texas, each house traditionally draws its own map, and then they send it to the other chamber.  When they are ready to pass the other house's map, messengers are stationed at the doors of the two chambers, where they can see both the presiding officer and the door of the other chamber at the other end of the capitol.  The two bills are then simultaneously gaveled.  Each house its own redistricting committee, with their chair typically having great sway.

But Maine doesn't have separate committees for each house does it?  The numbers are similar to Texas: 151 and 35 vs. 150 and 31.  So senate districts can be shifted around but maintain a large share of existing districts.  A partisan gerrymander depends on the party doing the drawing cutting margins on their seats, and packing the opposition.  But an individual legislator doesn't want to risk his own seat, even if for the benefit of the party.  If they are in an accomodating mood, they might be willing to reduce a 62% district to 61%.

But it might be necessary to eliminate house districts in the northeast and replace them in the southwest.  There is a lot more reason to draw knives, and it isn't to cut up the redistricting pie.

I saw on the House roster that there are 3 tribal representatives.  Is there a constitutional or statutory basis for them, or are recognized by legislative rules.  How are they chosen?

The legislature is on its 125th (126th?) session.  I'd expect it to be just short of 100 (2012-1820)/2.   Did it have one-year sessions at one time?

[jimrtex]

pass a State House or State Senate redistricting plan (and congressional and county commissioner redistricting from now on thanks to the constitutional amendment adopted last year).

They draw county commissioner districts?

[jimrtex]

Do county commissioners draw their own districts in many states?

They do in Texas.

Each county has 4 county commissioners who represent/oversee a commissioner's precinct, and along with the county judge form the commissioner's court ("court" and "judge" are vestigial roles.  A judicial judge at the county level is a "judge, county court at law".

The commissioners' court has limited legislative or ordinance type authority, in part because much of their territory may be covered by cities.   But they maintain roads, bridges, parks, and libraries outside city limits.

The county sheriff, county clerk, county treasurer, county attorney, and county tax assessor-collector have an independent function, though their budget comes from the county.   They are independently elected.

The judge and commissioners (in Harris County) also form the boards for a number of special districts that are coincident with county (hospital district, mosquito control district, flood control district, toll road authority).   So each commissioner sits as a member of a number of boards, but then have direct management authority over parks and streets and roads and libraries in the unincorporated areas of their precincts, as well as community centers.

So a commissioner precinct forms not only an area from which a commissioner is elected (and thus is subject to one man, one vote), but as the domain of its commissioner.

Harris County Commissioner's Precincts

As you can see Texas is covered by the Voting Rights Act.

Precinct 1 is represented by El Franco Lee, who is the first black county commissioner for Harris County (first elected in 1984).  He is reluctant to give up any black areas.  Precinct 2 is an attempt to create a Hispanic district.  It is constrained by a requirement for contiguity, plus having to include the far southeast corner of the county.   It can't

It elected a Hispanic commissioner in 2002 and 2006, but she was defeated in 2010.  If you look at the tables on the left, you will notice the districts are not equal population.  In order to apply equal protection in specific cases, you must have equalish protection in general.

Also while creating a precinct with a 40% HCVAP, you still have 15% HCVAP in the other 3 precincts.

[jimrtex]

Harris County Commissioner's Precincts

As you can see Texas is covered by the Voting Rights Act.

Precinct 1 is represented by El Franco Lee, who is the first black county commissioner for Harris County (first elected in 1984).  He is reluctant to give up any black areas.  Precinct 2 is an attempt to create a Hispanic district.  It is constrained by a requirement for contiguity, plus having to include the far southeast corner of the county.   It can't

It elected a Hispanic commissioner in 2002 and 2006, but she was defeated in 2010.  If you look at the tables on the left, you will notice the districts are not equal population.  In order to apply equal protection in specific cases, you must have equalish protection in general.

Also while creating a precinct with a 40% HCVAP, you still have 15% HCVAP in the other 3 precincts.

This case goes to trial this week.

[jimrtex]

Kennebec Journal

...

AUGUSTA -- The boundary lines separating the city's voting wards need to be redrawn, which would result in some voters moving to a new ward, without actually moving anywhere.

...

Also, I've read in the past that the 10% standard is as a percentage of the ideal (average) population per representative, city councillor, whatever, rather than that of either of the two districts being compared, or the smallest district as the article suggests (the deviation would always be larger as a percentage of the smallest district, if only infinitesmally larger).  It probably doesn't make much of a difference in practice, though.

An equality measurement should really take into account the distribution.  Use of the extremes is typically not the best way to measure equality.

In Texas, once a presumption was established that there should be a range of +/- 5%, the distribution of population has gone from being a normal distribution, to a uniform distribution, to a U-shaped distribution clustered around the extremes.  It has gone from aiming towards the center of the target, with arrows within a central ring still counting 10, to defining a limit of how much you can cheat without triggering an audit.

For most practical purposes, it doesn't matter whether you use 10% minimum to maximum range, or +/- 5% deviation from the mean.   In the case of Augusta's 4 wards, if one ward was +7.5%, the other three would have to be exactly -2.5%.   If you actually go to 7.5% you are going to have a hard time justifying it.  If you claim that it was because you wanted to adhere to an arterial street for that district, you will then have to explain why you drew the boundary line through bedrooms to get the others to each be exactly 2.5%.

If you reduced the largest to +6% (which is not much more than +5%), the other 3 have to average -2%.  When splitting out the other 3 wards, at most you can go -2% below the mean for these 3 smaller wards.  The more you go to an extreme, the more you lose in flexibility in the other districts.

If the largest is +5%, the other three must average -1.67%, but you can go 3.33% below this with two of them.

If you use deviation from the mean, you also don't have to decide whether the minimum must be at least 90% of the maximum, the maximum no more than 110% of the minimum, or the difference no more than 10% of the mean.

Augusta might be able to justify a bit larger difference.  For example, if they were able to rigidly use the Kennebec River in a 2/2 split.  +/-5% of the average ward is only +/- 240 which is probably around 5 to 10 blocks of single family homes.  I doubt that there is a political will for a radical restructuring (eg going from a four-corner plan to a 3-in-a-donut plan), even if it made the districts more equal.  People and the councilors have a certain understanding of their neighborhoods.   So I suspect they would just move a boundary or two to make things a bit more equal.  Having the 4 at-large councilors also equalizes some, since everyone gets to vote for 5 members of the council.

It is interesting that North Belfast and South Belfast are essentially parallel.

[jimrtex]

Funny I bumped this thread when I did.  A public notice (which I just stumbled across yesterday) appeared in the Bangor Daily News the next day announcing that public hearing of the Apportionment Commission has been tentatively scheduled:

MAINE LEGISLATURE
Maine Legislature PUBLIC HEARING NOTICE MAINE STATE LEGISLATURE MAINE APPORTIONMENT COMMISSION Public Hearing: Friday, May 24, 2013 1:00 P.M Room 334, State House Pursuant to the Maine Constitution and State Law, the 2013 Legislative Apportionment Commission will conduct a Public Hearing on a plan or plans to align districts for the Maine Senate, Maine House of Representatives and County Commissions according to the 2010 Decennial Census of the United States. Contact: Democratic Office: 287-6211 Republican Office: 287-6278 *Due to the busy nature of the Legislative session, a possible alternate date will be Wednesday, May 29th at 1:00 pm, in Room 334, State House. Please check the Legislative website for updates at http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/calendar/. May 11, 2013

Appeared in: BDN Maine on Saturday, 05/11/2013

Are all the hearings in Augusta?

[jimrtex]

At the public hearing I attended in May, although I didn't speak about the possible four-year deferral of some Cumberland County voters, nobody seemed too concerned about that phenomenon, even when I mentioned a municipality that was about to be deferred that was deferred 10 years earlier when it was shifted the other way.

They ought to give the commissioners the option of having their terms truncated, or permitting anyone in the county whose representation is deferred being exempt from property taxes.

[jimrtex]

At the public hearing I attended in May, although I didn't speak about the possible four-year deferral of some Cumberland County voters, nobody seemed too concerned about that phenomenon, even when I mentioned a municipality that was about to be deferred that was deferred 10 years earlier when it was shifted the other way.

They ought to give the commissioners the option of having their terms truncated, or permitting anyone in the county whose representation is deferred being exempt from property taxes.

Do any counties actually do that?

There was a bill that would have required it for Texas counties.

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Deferred is a euphemism for abridged.

Its only justification is elevating the right to hold office above the right of the people to choose the officers.  America is a republic, not a feudal monarchy.

It may have made sense in an era when districts were unchanged.  It is silly to worry about one voter have 1.1 votes and another having 0.9 votes, while some have 2.0 and others 0.0.

In Texas and Illinois, 1/2 or 1/3 of senators know that when they are elected in 20x0 that it will be for two years.  Voters don't notice one way or another.  "I'll take a chance on Joe Newcomer, since we can replace him in two years", simply doesn't happen.

[jimrtex]

At the public hearing I attended in May, although I didn't speak about the possible four-year deferral of some Cumberland County voters, nobody seemed too concerned about that phenomenon, even when I mentioned a municipality that was about to be deferred that was deferred 10 years earlier when it was shifted the other way.

They ought to give the commissioners the option of having their terms truncated, or permitting anyone in the county whose representation is deferred being exempt from property taxes.

I could see states doing that, and having the process proceed like it would if that person's term were up that year anyway (so no resignation and seeking appointment to replace oneself before running in a special election for the second half of one's own term - that's what would have to happen in Maine).  But if the commissioner says, "I'll serve out my term, thank you very much," I imagine the deferred voters just have to suffer through it, like they do in several State Senates for two years in a decade.  You might have been thinking more of the four-year deferral in Cumberland County.  I imagine four-year deferrals have happened before when boards of commissioners expand or districts are challenged but allowed to stand for the first election or districts are redrawn in non-redistricting years for political advantage, but it's probably a lot less common than 2-year deferrals which lawmakers may not see as significant (although I agree that they should).

I was thinking of it being a collective decision by the board.  They could say depending on how many voters being shafted, whether they want to have a reduced budget for two years.

[jimrtex]

In Texas and Illinois, 1/2 or 1/3 of senators know that when they are elected in 20x0 that it will be for two years.  Voters don't notice one way or another.  "I'll take a chance on Joe Newcomer, since we can replace him in two years", simply doesn't happen.

I'm going to try to get the Texas method (minus the drawing of lots after the election; I'd have the determination of which seats start with 2-year terms be part of the redistricting bill or court decision) adopted in Maine for county commissioners sometime before 2020 (Maine will be redistricting in 2021 for everything, finally joining most of the nation).  I was initially drawn to the Illinois method, but there you have, in the elections of xyz2, xyz4, xyz6, xyz8, [xyz+1]0 and [xyz+1]2, 100%, 33%, 67%, 67%, 33% and 100% of Senators elected respectively, whereas in Texas it's 100%, 50%, 50%, 50%, 50% and 100%, respectively.  In Illionis, two of the three classes (2-4-4 and 4-4-2) share only one election in a decade, while they each share 2 with the 4-2-4 class.  Of course, 12 of Maine's 16 counties have only 3 commissioners, so the Texas method leaves one district as the oddball (as it currently is in Maine), but just having 2-4-4 and 4-4-2 is simpler and means the staggering runs smoothly with alternating elections through most of the decade.

The Texas Constitution doesn't actually say that the last terms may be truncated, but it does require that a new senate be elected after every apportionment.  So it was known that senators elected in 2010 for a "four-year term" would have to face election again in 2012.

The senate was redistricted in 1991, which was redrawn by a state court and a federal court in 1991, and a special session of the legislature in 1992.  The last plan did not gain preclearance until late in the summer, and the 1992 election was based on the federal-court drawn plan.  Terms were drawn in 1993, but since the 1992-special-session plan was used in 1994, all senators ran, and terms were drawn again.

The 1994 districts were challenged in court, and as part of a consent decree, the senate acknowledged the districts, but did not actually enact them.  An Attorney General opinion said that was not actually an "apportionment" and so those who had drawn 2-year terms in 1995 ran in new districts in 1996.  Those who had drawn 4-year terms in 1995, did not run in new districts until 1998.

As it turned out, my senator elected in 1994, drew a 2-year term, and did not seek re-election.  I was moved into a district represented by a senator who had drawn a 4-year term.  So between 1996 and 1998 I was represented by a senator who I had not voted for, and the senator I had last voted for was no longer in the senate.

In redistricting in 2001, it was proposed that I be placed in 4 different senate districts, none of which was the one I was placed in from 1996 to 2002.

The lottery system used in Texas deliberately gives 16 senators a 4-year term.  The numbers 1-31 are written on a slip of paper, the slips placed in envelopes and the envelopes placed in a box and stirred.  The senators draw in alphabetical order.  Those who draw an odd number receive a 4-year term.

Hawaii uses the Texas form (half 4-4-2 and half 2-4-4), but the assignment of terms is part of the apportionment plan, and done such that it maximizes the number of persons who have only two elections in the 6-year period beginning with the election before apportionment.

That is residents may be classified based on the last election in the old district (eg 2008 or 2010).  Then the number of 2008-residents and 2010-residents can be tabulated for each new district.  The new districts with the most 2010-residents are assigned 4-year terms.

So as much as possible, voters are 442-R-442, or 244-R-224, and much fewer 244-R-442 or 442-R-244.

This might be particularly a good idea when you have very small bodies (3 or 5 commissioners).  If there are 3 districts, then about 2/3 of voters will be 442-R-442 and the other 1/3 will be 244-R-244 (or 3/5 and 2/5).

This works even if there is an early redistricting.  Imagine that the system was already in place, but that the redistricting was still being advanced two years in the 2020 cycle,

So you would have 242-R-442 and 44-R-244.  In actuality you have (2)42-R-442, where the (2) represent the last 2 years served in an altered district.