OH: Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead by a lot among 2011 likely voters

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Ohio President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-11-06

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

...

50-39 Obama/Cain
51-38 Obama/Gingrich
50-41 Obama/Romney
50-36 Obama/Paul
51-37 Obama/Bachmann
53-36 Obama/Perry

[Niemeyerite]

[ChiefTuscaloosa]

I can't see any situation where Obama wins Ohio by anymore than 6-7%.  Even that margin seems fairly unattainable, considering he won the state by 4.6% last time in a strong Democratic year.

[SufferedMore ThanJesus]

Romney should have simply kept his cakehole shut on issue 2.

[Yank2133]

Romney should have simply kept his cakehole shut on issue 2.

Yup.

[Miles]

I can't see any situation where Obama wins Ohio by anymore than 6-7%.  Even that margin seems fairly unattainable, considering he won the state by 4.6% last time in a strong Democratic year.

                                                                                                                                                        Well, I fully expect this to tighten, but nonetheless, good news for Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

Excellent. Things really seem to be turning around for the President. Hearing Mitt Romney's concession speech will be one of the happiest moments of my entire life.

[pbrower2a]

I can't see any situation where Obama wins Ohio by anymore than 6-7%.  Even that margin seems fairly unattainable, considering he won the state by 4.6% last time in a strong Democratic year.

Romney should have simply kept his cakehole shut on issue 2.

That was the problem. For once Mitt Romney showed some unambiguity and was decisively --
WRONG.

He may have thought it appropriate to get in the good graces of Governor Kasich at the least to secure the state in the primaries, but some times that comes with a high price.

I find it hard to believe that any Republican could lose Ohio by a 9% margin to an incumbent Democratic President except in a landslide resembling 1936, 1964, or 1972, but electoral reality can shift rapidly and dramatically. 

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm not buying this poll. Don't get me wrong; the GOP is not doing very well in Ohio, but PPP released a poll last month where President Obama and Mitt Romney were tied at 46-46 last month and this poll was conducted the day before election day, when the state of Ohio was set to vote down SB5.

I suspect there's sort of an SB5 'bounce' for President Obama that will slowly dissappear as people forget about it. There still will be some level of residual Democratic bounce from it, just not quite this much.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not buying this poll. Don't get me wrong; the GOP is not doing very well in Ohio, but PPP released a poll last month where President Obama and Mitt Romney were tied at 46-46 last month and this poll was conducted the day before election day, when the state of Ohio was set to vote down SB5.

I suspect there's sort of an SB5 'bounce' for President Obama that will slowly dissappear as people forget about it. There still will be some level of residual Democratic bounce from it, just not quite this much.

It could be -- but Ohio Democrats (and labor unions)  may have gotten a head start on organization going into the 2012 election.

It's hard to predict that the Democrats' bounce over SB5 will persist... but all that says that it will dissipate is Ohio's heritage as a swing state that is usually close in close elections.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm not buying this poll. Don't get me wrong; the GOP is not doing very well in Ohio, but PPP released a poll last month where President Obama and Mitt Romney were tied at 46-46 last month and this poll was conducted the day before election day, when the state of Ohio was set to vote down SB5.

I suspect there's sort of an SB5 'bounce' for President Obama that will slowly dissappear as people forget about it. There still will be some level of residual Democratic bounce from it, just not quite this much.

Sort of, but his problem is it isn't confined to this issue.  Romney embraced a conservative position on a well-reported issue that changed people's perspective.  Low info voters have viewed Romney as moderate because the media labels him that way or they hear conservatives complain about him.  And he's been trying to hide from TV interviews in order to be all things to all people.  But on this issue, he was pinned down after trying to flee from it.  Which will happen again. People will start to pay more attention 6 months from now, and more 9 months from now, and come to realize Romney supports a lot of things they're not comfortable with and he'll lose his grip on swing voters and states like Ohio.

[Verily]

I'm not buying this poll. Don't get me wrong; the GOP is not doing very well in Ohio, but PPP released a poll last month where President Obama and Mitt Romney were tied at 46-46 last month and this poll was conducted the day before election day, when the state of Ohio was set to vote down SB5.

I suspect there's sort of an SB5 'bounce' for President Obama that will slowly dissappear as people forget about it. There still will be some level of residual Democratic bounce from it, just not quite this much.

That's sort of the point of this poll. It was of likely 2011 voters, not likely 2012 voters. Assuming Democrats were more fired up about SB5 than Republicans (and the results certainly suggest that), one would expect Obama's numbers to be inflated.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

With the unpopularity of John Kasich and SB5 going down in a massive defeat (only four or five counties voted to keep SB5) it is unsurprising to find Obama's numbers higher than expected

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

That's quite a lead for either party to show in Ohio, so I'm not too sure how accurate this is.  Still, it's always good to be in the lead, especially in a poll conducted by a highly respected pollster.

[TJ in Oregon]

That's sort of the point of this poll. It was of likely 2011 voters, not likely 2012 voters. Assuming Democrats were more fired up about SB5 than Republicans (and the results certainly suggest that), one would expect Obama's numbers to be inflated.

That's probably part of it too. There was absolutely nothing to get excited about supporting for Ohio Republicans on the ballot this year: a union bill no one wants, a judicial reform no one understands, and a healthcare statment that doesn't do anything. Heck, I was wondering why I bothered to get an absentee ballot sent to me. Only one local race was even contested.

It's interesting that PPP decided to do a poll on the day before the 2011 election. I can't believe no one there thought it may be skewed. Wait until next month. I'm not saying the Republicans will be doing well, but it will at least be accurate.

[pbrower2a]

That's sort of the point of this poll. It was of likely 2011 voters, not likely 2012 voters. Assuming Democrats were more fired up about SB5 than Republicans (and the results certainly suggest that), one would expect Obama's numbers to be inflated.

That's probably part of it too. There was absolutely nothing to get excited about supporting for Ohio Republicans on the ballot this year: a union bill no one wants, a judicial reform no one understands, and a healthcare statment that doesn't do anything. Heck, I was wondering why I bothered to get an absentee ballot sent to me. Only one local race was even contested.

It's interesting that PPP decided to do a poll on the day before the 2011 election. I can't believe no one there thought it may be skewed. Wait until next month. I'm not saying the Republicans will be doing well, but it will at least be accurate.

This poll could be an outlier, reflecting a heated political situation that works badly for Republicans. But think of what happened: Ohio Republicans over-reached, and Democratic special interests (unions) took notice. The unions are well-organized politically and they got scared.

Republicans wanted to eviscerate labor unions so that the opposition to the Hard Right would become ineffective in electoral politics in the critical states with the obvious purpose of shaping the political order. Then, of course, the Hard Right could transform America into a low-wage, low-tax economic order in which corporations have all real power. 

Ohio unions took this seriously. They know what is at stake, and as the only part of the organized Left in America they got organized, they shaped their agenda to fit the interests of people who might not have an overt stake in the power of unions, and they got the vote out.

Republican candidates for the President stood behind John Kasich, and for that they stand to lose to the sure opponent who stood behind Ohio's working people. 

[Vosem]

Republicans wanted to eviscerate labor unions

I dream about eviscerating labor unions every day. That's why (no joke now) I voted yes on Issue 2.

[Vern]

This poll is of 2011 likely voters which would be more democratic then their normal polls.  They should have never polled 2011 likely voters.

[Badger]

I'm not buying this poll. Don't get me wrong; the GOP is not doing very well in Ohio, but PPP released a poll last month where President Obama and Mitt Romney were tied at 46-46 last month and this poll was conducted the day before election day, when the state of Ohio was set to vote down SB5.

I suspect there's sort of an SB5 'bounce' for President Obama that will slowly dissappear as people forget about it. There still will be some level of residual Democratic bounce from it, just not quite this much.

Smart poster is smart.

Seriously. No sarcasm.

[DrScholl]

There is possibly some SB5 influence on the poll, but I don't believe it is all SB5, Obama lead in Ohio narrowly more than he has trailed. Without SB5, it may have been about 2-3 point lead.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think some of you non-Ohioans might not understand what SB5 was and did. If passed it would have outlawed public employee strikes and binding arbitration, contract disputes would have been settled by a vote (I forget if it was a referendum or township trustees in the final version; it changed somewhere along the way), forbid collective bargaining for anything beside wages (benefits would not have been negotiable), and included not just teachers but all unionized state employees including police and fire.

President Obama won 57% of the union vote. There are a decent sized minority of partisan Republicans in some of these unions, particularly the police and fire. Needless to say, it irritated a whole lot of people who would otherwise support Republicans. This PPP poll was conducted the day before the SB5 referrendum election. It's not a matter of unions suddenly becoming powerful or organizing. They always have organized and handed out literature to members. My mom gets a pamphlet every year from the union telling her who to vote for. It's a matter of a lot of people who are ticked off at the GOP. Some of them might stay that way all year and vote for Obama, but I have a hard time believing that it isn't mostly an emotional effect of SB5 that die down over time as the campaign heats up. I mean, just look at PPP's numbers from last month.

[Bull Moose Base]

I think some of you non-Ohioans might not understand what SB5 was and did. If passed it would have outlawed public employee strikes and binding arbitration, contract disputes would have been settled by a vote (I forget if it was a referendum or township trustees in the final version; it changed somewhere along the way), forbid collective bargaining for anything beside wages (benefits would not have been negotiable), and included not just teachers but all unionized state employees including police and fire.

President Obama won 57% of the union vote. There are a decent sized minority of partisan Republicans in some of these unions, particularly the police and fire. Needless to say, it irritated a whole lot of people who would otherwise support Republicans. This PPP poll was conducted the day before the SB5 referrendum election. It's not a matter of unions suddenly becoming powerful or organizing. They always have organized and handed out literature to members. My mom gets a pamphlet every year from the union telling her who to vote for. It's a matter of a lot of people who are ticked off at the GOP. Some of them might stay that way all year and vote for Obama, but I have a hard time believing that it isn't mostly an emotional effect of SB5 that die down over time as the campaign heats up. I mean, just look at PPP's numbers from last month.

But the Obama campaign will constantly remind them of this issue they felt strongly about that Romney was on the wrong side of and of other issues they feel strongly about that Romney is on the wrong side of.  There will be plenty of them.